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China investment brightens Pakistan’s future

来源:FT中文网    2017-05-11 06:20

        Late last year, three Chinese exchanges jointly submitted the highest bid for a 40 per cent stake in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. They paid almost Rs9bn, or $85m. Weeks after the deal, the market hit an all-time high.        去年底,中国三家交易所联合提出报价,收购巴基斯坦证券交易所(Pakistan Stock Exchange, PSX) 40%的股权。它们报价近90亿巴基斯坦卢比(合8500万美元),为最高报价。该交易完成数周后,巴基斯坦股市创历史最高纪录。
        This year has been a good time to be a broker in Karachi, especially after index provider MSCI announced last summer it was restoring the country to emerging market status after downgrading it to frontier status after the financial crisis. In March, local brokers with stakes in the PSX received cheques when the Chinese transaction closed. Since then, they have been sending roadshows to financial capitals to sing the praises of the Pakistani market.        今年对卡拉奇的经纪商来说是个好年份,特别是在指数提供商MSCI明晟去年夏天宣布恢复巴基斯坦的新兴市场地位后。在金融危机后,MSCI明晟把巴基斯坦降级至前沿市场。今年3月,当中资收购PSX的交易结束时,在PSX持股的当地经纪商都收到了支票。自那以来,他们在全球各地的金融之都举行路演,推介巴基斯坦市场。
        The Chinese investment in the the Pakistan stock market is not officially part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is itself part of the broader, One Belt, One Road initiative designed to strengthen trade links between China and Europe. Yet the biggest reason to be optimistic about Pakistan is the Chinese investment that is pouring into the country.        中国投资巴基斯坦股市并非“中巴经济走廊”(CPEC)计划的正式组成部分;该计划本身是旨在加强中欧贸易联系的“一带一路”倡议的一部分。不过对巴基斯坦持乐观态度的最大原因是中国投资不断涌入巴基斯坦。
        More than $55bn is expected to come into the country in the next five years, according to a forecast from the Pakistan Business Council. Beijing is doing for Pakistan what the country cannot seemingly do for itself — provide functioning infrastructure. The most critical of these involves building power plants to solve the country’s perennial energy shortage, which has become one of the biggest constraints on economic growth.        据巴基斯坦商业委员会(Pakistan Business Council)的预测,未来五年预计将有超过550亿美元的投资进入巴基斯坦。北京为巴基斯坦做的事似乎是后者自己无法完成的——提供发挥正常功能的基础设施。最关键的基建工程涉及建设发电厂来解决巴基斯坦长期存在的能源短缺问题;该问题已成为巴基斯坦经济增长受到的最大约束之一。
        Last year investors latched on to what Chinese investment might mean for Pakistan. The stock market is up more than 40 per cent over the past 12 months,        去年投资者突然理解了中国投资对于巴基斯坦可能意味着什么。巴股在过去12个月上涨逾40%,于1月触及纪录高点。然而,此轮涨势如今已经放缓,今年巴股涨幅仅为3%左右。
        and touched a record high in January. However, its momentum has slowed, rising only about 3 per cent this year.        投资者必须判断:中国会否给巴基斯坦企业界带来长远的根本变化?抑或中国本身会成为“中巴经济走廊”的最大受益者?当地的钢铁、水泥和重化工企业是否将看到订单量大幅提升?考虑到高昂的运输成本,本地化生产将成为一种优势,那么中国资本会否投资于巴基斯坦水泥和钢铁产业?抑或中国企业会看到中国对巴投资带来收入增加?
        Investors must decide whether China will be a long-term game changer for corporate Pakistan — or whether China itself will be the biggest beneficiary of CPEC. Will local steel, cement and heavy chemical companies see a huge uptick in orders? Will Chinese capital invest in the Pakistani cement and steel industry, where being local is an advantage given high transport costs. Or will Chinese companies see a boost to revenues as a result of Chinese investment?        “由于跟中国之间的联系,情况想变糟糕都难;那就是关键,”邓普顿新兴市场集团(Templeton Emerging Markets Group)董事长麦朴思(Mark Mobius)辩称,“3年前,当大家都不看好巴基斯坦时,我们对该国投入了大笔资金。”
        “With the China connection, it is difficult to go wrong; that is key,” argues Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group. “Three years ago, we went big in Pakistan when everyone was down on it.”        不过,迄今证据有好有坏。许多合同并未公开,但拿到帮助建造部分电厂的合同的中国企业,收到了从项目获得股本回报的保证。此外,在巴基斯坦企业界起来反抗之前,进口中国钢材曾是免关税的。
        Yet the evidence so far is mixed. Many contracts are not public, but Chinese companies that have received contracts to help construct some of the power plants have been guaranteed equity returns from the projects. Moreover, until the Pakistani business community rose in revolt, Chinese steel imports were duty-free.        中国投资并非买入巴基斯坦的唯一原因。法律和秩序有所改善,尽管进步似乎有些脆弱。亚开行(ADB)称,预计巴基斯坦今年增长可加速至5.2%。去年该国增长率不到5%。消费者支出强劲。Pakistan Business Capital数据显示,资金成本处于43年来的低点。巴基斯坦管理人才——无论在联合利华(Unilever)等跨国企业,还是在Engro或National Foods等国内企业——很令人敬佩。
        Chinese investment is not the only reason to buy Pakistan. Law and order has improved, although progress seems fragile. Growth, which came in at under 5 per cent last year, is expected to rise to 5.2 per cent this year, according to the Asian Development Bank. Consumer spending is strong. The cost of capital is at a 43-year low, according to data from the Pakistan Business Capital. Pakistani management talent — whether at multinationals such as Unilever or local companies such as Engro or National Foods — is impressive.        但是,也不难找到看空巴基斯坦的原因。该国出口在下滑,而越南和孟加拉国等对手的出口在增长。制造业占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例在减少,如今仅为13%。汇款在下降,国际收支在承压。
        But reasons to be bearish are not hard to find. The country’s exports are declining, while those at competitors such as Vietnam and Bangladesh are growing. Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP is shrinking, and is a mere 13 per cent today. Remittances are down, while the balance of payments is under pressure.        中国投资大潮将给巴基斯坦带来巨大变化。这一点是没有争议的。
        The wave of Chinese investment will make a huge difference to Pakistan. That much is not in dispute.        但是,伴随着电厂、道路和港口,中国投资有可能留下一连串坏账。当然,眼下卡拉奇的经纪商们将希望,北京的兴趣将推动巴基斯坦股市涨至新高。
        But it is possible that alongside the power plants, roads and ports, China’s investment will leave a trail of bad debts. For now, of course, Karachi brokers will be hoping Beijing’s interest lifts the domestic stock market to new highs.        译者/何黎

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