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Glowing Taiwan rally fanned by iPhone maker

来源:FT中文网    2017-05-11 06:20

        The reverberations of Apple’s march to record valuation are being felt far beyond Wall Street.        苹果(Apple)逼近创纪录市值的影响正远远超出华尔街。
        The company has been a key contributor to a rally in Taiwan stock that this week pushed the tech-dominated market beyond the 10,000 mark for only the fifth time in its history.        该公司是台湾股市反弹的关键贡献者,本周在其推动下,这一科技主导市场历史上第五次跨过10000点大关。
        Taiwan is the third-largest constituent of MSCI’s benchmark emerging markets index with a capitalisation of $1.1tn. It has been enjoying its best start to a year in five, up 7.7 per cent on confidence in the outlook for the global technology supply chain.        台湾是MSCI明晟基准新兴市场指数的第三大构成者,市值为1.1万亿美元。今年台湾股市迎来五年来最好开年,投资者对全球科技供应链前景的信心支撑其上涨了7.7%。
        Eight of the 10 biggest contributors to the Taiex’s rise this year are suppliers to the maker of the iPhone.        台湾加权指数(Taiex)今年攀升的10大贡献者里有8家是iPhone制造商的供应商。
        Combine the revenues of the 874-member Taiex last year, and as much as 42 per cent was related to Apple, estimates Goldman Sachs. According to the bank, the market has enjoyed net inflows of $1.7bn in the past fortnight, ranking it among investors’ favourites across Asia this year. A move of just 2.3 per cent higher would see the Taiex match its 2000 peak at the height of the dotcom boom.        据高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计,去年台湾加权指数874家成分股公司的总收入多达42%与苹果有关。高盛表示,该股市过去两周资金净流入为17亿美元,已跻身今年亚洲地区投资者最喜爱市场之列。台湾加权指数只要再上升2.3%,就能追平2000年互联网热潮高峰期的峰值。
        It is not just Apple that has been fanning the rally. A rapid cycle of new models among phonemakers in South Korea and China has relied on more components from Taiwan manufacturers, whose expertise and economies of scale have helped them hold off competition from parts makers elsewhere in Asia.        不只是苹果一直拉动其反弹。韩国和中国手机制造商新机型的快速周期依赖于台湾制造商的更多组件,后者的专业知识和规模经济有助于它们抵挡来自亚洲其他地区零部件制造商的竞争。
        “These are value-add products, adding to the margins of suppliers,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, a strategist at BNP Paribas. The biggest single stock boosting the Taiex is its largest — chipmaker TSMC, which, at 18.1 per cent, carries the biggest weighting within the benchmark. Both TSMC and Hon Hai, the Apple assembler better known as Foxconn, are trading at record highs.        法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)策略师Manishi Raychaudhuri表示:“这些都是增值产品,增加了供应商的利润率。”台湾最大芯片制造商台积电(TSMC)是台湾加权指数最大推动力量,以18.1%在该股指中占最大权重。台积电和鸿海(Hon Hai)股价均处于历史高位,鸿海更知名的名字是富士康(Foxconn),是苹果的组装商。
        Taiwan firms “do look like better companies, they seem to be well-run but for some reason completely ignored or unloved, which makes it interesting,” said James Montier of GMO, the asset manager, who described them as a “pocket of value” in emerging markets.        资产管理公司GMO的詹姆斯•芒迪埃(James Montier)表示,台湾企业“看起来是比较优秀的公司,它们似乎运营良好,但由于某些原因完全被忽视或不受欢迎,这一点很有趣。”他将这些公司称为新兴市场的一个“价值区”。
        The market’s gains have been so far solid enough to withstand an export-sapping rally in the Taiwan dollar. Against expectations this year that it would weaken, it has gained 6.6 per cent to NT$30.26. International investors meanwhile are enjoying the upside which that brings: it has effectively doubled their gains in dollar terms.        到目前为止,台湾股市涨势坚挺到足以抵御不利于出口的新台币升值。与今年新台币将走弱的预期不同,它已上涨6.6%,至1美元兑30.26新台币。国际投资者同时享受到这一升值带来的好处,令他们的收益以美元计翻了一番。
        The market, like tech-heavy rivals such as Seoul’s Kospi index, have been helped too by the lack of any extreme protectionist action from the US Trump administration. Measured by the source of export orders, the US represents 29 per cent of Taiwan’s export demand.        与韩国Kospi指数等以科技股为主的指数一样,台湾加权指数还因为美国特朗普政府没有采取极端保护主义政策而受益。根据出口订单来源衡量,美国占台湾出口需求的29%。
        While the Taiex managed to shrug off the unexpected fall in Apple’s first-quarter iPhone sales earlier this month, analysts warn against expecting big gains in the Taiex in the near term.        本月早些时候,台湾加权指数成功摆脱了苹果第一季度iPhone销量意外下滑的影响,但分析师提醒投资者别指望该指数近期会大涨。
        The rally has left the Taiex trading on a forward price earnings multiple of about 14 times — still towards the lower end of its valuation range of the past decade, but above the 10 times of Seoul, its biggest merging markets rival.        股指上涨令台湾加权指数的预期市盈率达到14倍左右,仍接近过去10年估值区间的较低端,但高于韩国市场的10倍,后者是其在并购市场的最大竞争对手。
        Analysts are keen to point out that Taiwan is not just tech stocks. Improving margins at oil refiners have been attracting interest, while a steepening yield curve is raising the prospects for better profits among financial stocks.        分析师希望指出,台湾并非只有科技股。炼油商利润率改善也一直在吸引投资者的目光,收益率曲线变陡令市场预期金融股利润将扩大。
        And the index’s breach of 10,000 puts it on a collision course with its own history. Of the Taiex’s previous pops above that level — in 1990, 1997, 2000 and 2015 — the latter three lasted no more than 20 days and all gave way to corrections or bear markets. Apple looks likely to help decide how this month’s breach of the 10,000 mark ends.        台湾加权指数突破1万点关口使其走上与自身历史相碰撞的轨道。在该指数过去突破这一关口的先例(1990年、1997年、2000年和2015年)中,后三次持续的时间均不超过20天,而后都出现了调整或熊市。苹果看上去可能会有助于决定本月该指数突破1万点关口后的走势。

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