分析:关于亚洲盈利预期的“蛇梯棋”_OK阅读网
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分析:关于亚洲盈利预期的“蛇梯棋”
Asian earnings optimism is worth another look

来源:FT中文网    2017-05-16 12:54



        For the very definition of hope over experience, take a look at analysts’ efforts to predict profit growth in Asia.        要想了解什么是希望压过经验,看看分析师预测亚洲盈利增长的努力就知道了。
        Like a game of snakes with no ladders, each year for the past six has been one big slide as optimism met reality. Until 2017 that is: earnings forecasts for this year began in an upbeat mood and have only risen since, making upgrades a key reason for regional benchmarks climbing to their best levels in years.        就像是玩有蛇而没梯子的“蛇梯棋”,过去六年的每一年,分析师的乐观情绪在遭遇现实时都一溃千里。但那只适用于2017年之前:今年开年盈利预测颇为乐观,之后更是不断上升,令预测上调成为地区性基准指数攀升至多年来最高水平的关键原因。
        Asia’s profits, excluding Japan, are forecast to grow 17.5 per cent this year, an improvement on the predictions of a rise of about 11 per cent when analysts first began forecasting last summer, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Reasons for the growth include the recovery in commodity prices, a pick-up in China’s economy, and the softer dollar as well as rising exports linked to the global recovery. One notable regional factor has been unexpectedly strong demand for Asia’s speciality tech components. Forecasts for South Korea’s earnings growth in 2017 have risen to 34 per cent from 8 per cent last summer, for example. And Taiwan’s tech-heavy Taiex last week closed at its strongest level since the dotcom boom.        根据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的说法,今年亚洲(不含日本)的盈利预计会增长17.5%,高于去年夏天分析师首次开始预测时给出的约11%的增幅预期。预测调高的理由包括大宗商品价格回升、中国经济加速、美元走软以及与全球复苏有关的出口攀升。一个值得注意的地区性因素,是亚洲的拳头产品高科技零部件面临强劲得出乎意料的需求。比如,对韩国2017年盈利增长的预测已从去年夏天的8%升至34%。侧重科技股的台湾加权指数(Taiex)则在上周收于互联网泡沫以来的最高水平。
        Asia’s benchmark, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, is up 18.2 per cent so far this year — ahead of the 15 per cent election relief rally enjoyed by France, for example, and far outstripping the 6 per cent of the S&P 500.        今年到目前为止,亚洲基准的MSCI明晟亚洲(不含日本)指数上升了18.2%,领先于法国因大选后情绪缓和而出现的15%的涨幅,并大大超过了标普500(S&P 500) 6%的涨幅。
        Yet for all that, international investors remain unconvinced. Global funds worth $1tn tracked by Goldman Sachs are near their most underweight positions, relative to Asia benchmarks, of the past decade. Citigroup analysts reckon only two in 10 client meetings express any positive views about emerging markets whatsoever. “When it comes to EM,” wrote its emerging markets team to clients last week, “it is either still dark and we can’t see the sky, or the clouds look rather ominous.”        尽管如此,国际投资者依然未被说服。高盛(Goldman Sachs)追踪的价值1万亿美元的全球基金,相对亚洲基准指数正处于接近十年来最低配仓位的水平。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师估计,十次与客户的会晤只有两次传出对新兴市场的正面看法。花旗新兴市场团队上周对客户写道:“谈到新兴市场,要么是天色仍然很暗、我们看不到天空,要么是云势看起来相当不祥。”
        There are risks, of course. China’s crackdown on leverage could spill over from the bond markets. The US could announce a policy surprise on anything from trade tariffs to North Korea. And the chances are that this year’s rally will at the least pause for a breather. But even the unluckiest game player tends to find a ladder at some point after a run of snakes. Asia’s earnings are worth a closer look.        风险当然是存在的。中国的去杠杆举措或从债市引发溢出效应。美国则可能宣布从关税到朝鲜相关政策等种种令人震惊的政策。此外,今年的上涨可能至少会暂停一段时间。不过,就算是运气最不好的“蛇梯棋”玩家,也会在遭遇多条蛇之后的某一刻,找到个梯子。亚洲的盈利值得更密切关注。
        jennifer.hughes@ft.com        译者/简易
                
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