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India offers the next frontier for Chinese property developers

来源:FT中文网    2017-05-18 06:12

        Monetary tightening in China suggests that the best days of the current property market cycle are now over for local real estate developers. Major international investment groups such as Blackstone are selling rather than buying in the belief that prices and fundamentals have begun to diverge, according to people familiar with the market.        中国目前的货币收紧意味着,对于本地房地产开发商来说,当前房地产市场周期的黄金时期已经结束。据熟悉该市场的人士表示,因为相信价格和基本面已经开始背道而驰,黑石(Blackstone)等大型国际投资集团如今正在出售资产而非收购。
        That perhaps explains the interest on the part of some mainland Chinese developers in the Indian market. At least five, including Dalian Wanda and Country Garden, Fosun, China Land and Fortune are in varying stages of commitment to ambitious projects there.        这或许解释了为何中国内地一些开发商对印度市场产生兴趣。包括大连万达(Dalian Wanda)、碧桂园(Country Garden)、复星(Fosun)和华夏幸福(China Fortune Land Development)在内,至少5家企业正处于在印度雄心勃勃地推进项目的不同阶段。
        The property market has become the latest Indian sector to receive interest from its powerful neighbour to the east. Chinese manufactured goods are on sale everywhere. The innards of local mobile phones are almost entirely made in China, as are other products from air conditioners to white goods. Chinese technology companies are ramping up investments in Indian e-commerce and fintech start-ups in the belief that the know-how they have gained in other emerging markets will prove relevant in India.        印度的房地产市场成为了让东方强大邻国萌生兴趣的最新行业。如今中国制成品销往世界各地。当地移动电话的零件几乎全部在中国制造,正如从空调到白色家电等其他产品一样。中国科技公司正加大对印度电子商务和金融科技初创企业的投资,相信从其他新兴市场得到的知识经验也将证明在印度有用。
        It is a measure of Chinese confidence that so many mainland companies are going abroad, especially to southeast and south Asia. In southeast Asia, Chinese communities have long dominated business to a degree out of all proportion to their numbers in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Country Garden, for example, is building a $100bn housing project in Malaysia near Singapore, although like other overseas investments by Chinese groups the project has been affected by Beijing’s attempts to curb capital outflows by companies and individuals, whether they be tech investors or homebuyers.        这体现出中国企业的信心——中国内地那么多企业都在走向海外市场,特别是东南亚和南亚市场。在东南亚,长期以来华人群体对商业的支配程度超过他们在印度尼西亚、泰国和马来西亚所占的人口比例。例如,碧桂园正在马来西亚靠近新加坡的地区建设一项总值1000亿美元的住宅项目,尽管像中国企业在海外进行的其他投资一样,该项目也受到了北京方面试图限制企业和个人(无论是科技投资者还是购房者)向海外转移资本的影响。
        India may prove just as problematic for Chinese developers. As the major Chinese property groups look to India for growth, they are likely to encounter difficulties that are common when doing business in the country, and help explain why both private sector investment and job growth continue to be so disappointing.        对于中国开发商来说,印度或许会一样麻烦。随着中国主要房地产集团在印度寻找增长点,他们可能会遭遇在这个国家做生意常见的困难,并帮助解释为何印度民间投资和就业增长持续如此令人失望。
        “It is tempting for them to think that India is on the same trajectory as China, but just behind it,” says the head of Asia for one major alternative investment firm. “The perception is that they are similar, with an emerging middle class with a desire for housing, and trends like urbanisation. But the complexity is much greater than in China — especially when it comes to aggregating parcels of land.”        “他们很容易认为印度正处于和中国相同的发展轨迹,只是落后于中国,”一家主要的另类投资公司的亚洲负责人表示,“他们认为,两国是类似的,都拥有渴望住房的新兴中产阶级和城市化等趋势。但印度的复杂性远远超过中国——特别是涉及到将一块块土地集合起来时。”
        Control over property and planning in India is a matter reserved for the states, making it difficult for New Delhi to set policies to encourage development. In a port city such as Mumbai much of the land is controlled by the government and the port trust, and in second-tier cities such as Pune or Bangalore, the military is also a big landholder. That makes it challenging even for local developers to assemble big tracts.        在印度,对房地产和规划的控制权保留在各邦政府手中,这使得新德里难以制定鼓励开发的政策。在孟买等港口城市,政府和港务局控制了大部分土地,在普纳(Pune)和班加罗尔(Bangalore)等二级城市,军队也是主要的土地拥有者。即便是对于本土开发商来说,想要开发大片土地也是具有挑战性的。
        Last year, when Dalian Wanda came to India with ambitious plans to construct giant projects, numerous states competed to attract the Chinese conglomerate. Today, its multibillion-dollar real estate project in Haryana state, near Delhi, is frozen as the company is in dispute over the issue of equity sharing with the local government. Dalian Wanda declined to comment.        去年,当大连万达携带着雄心勃勃的计划来到印度建设大型项目时,印度多个邦纷纷竞争吸引这家中国综合企业。如今,万达在德里附近的哈里亚纳邦的100亿美元房地产项目陷入停滞,因该公司在股权分配的问题上与当地政府发生争议。大连万达拒绝置评。
        Moreover, the timing of the current Chinese influx is inauspicious. There is already massive inventory of residential property, while demand is flat or down, especially at the high end. Regulations meant to protect buyers are making it harder for developers to obtain the capital to finance their projects.        另外,目前中国房地产开发商涌入印度的时间不利。该国已存在巨大的住宅房地产库存,但需求持平或下降,特别是在高端领域。旨在保护买房者的监管规定加大了开发商获取资金为项目融资的难度。
        The obstacles facing the Chinese developers are unfortunate for several reasons. Most Indian builders lack strong balance sheets and cannot build on the scale that the country requires over the long term, despite the temporary glut. Moreover, the most urgent need is for affordable housing — a core competence for Chinese developers who are used to building at the massive volumes needed to compensate for lower margins on each unit.        中国房地产开发商面临的障碍令人遗憾,原因有几个。多数印度建筑商没有强大的资产负债表,尽管印度暂时出现供应过剩,但它们的建设规模不可能满足该国的长期需求。另外,最紧迫的需求是廉价房,这是中国房地产开发商的核心竞争力,他们习惯于建设大规模房地产,以弥补较低的单位利润率。
        If nothing else, the inevitable struggles will make the Chinese feel better about their home market — despite the ruthless competition, Beijing’s efforts to curb price rises in first-tier cities by limiting the leverage of many would-be speculators, and the tightening liquidity from the central bank.        撇开其他不谈,这些不可避免的困难将让中国房地产开发商对国内市场感觉更轻松,尽管这里竞争激烈,中国政府正通过限制很多潜在投机者的杠杆控制一线城市的房价,同时中国央行在收紧流动性。
        Still, if the Chinese developers have a hard time in India developing property investments in India, that is likely to prove more of a loss for India and its jobless youth than for these outside developers.        然而,如果中国房地产开发商在印度房地产投资方面遇到困难,事实可能证明,相对于这些外部开发商而言,印度以及该国失业青年遭受的损失更大。
        henny.sender@ft.com        译者/何黎

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