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王岐山:中国的铁腕执行者
Wang Qishan: China’s enforcer

来源:FT中文网    2017-08-03 13:44



        To his admirers, Wang Qishan is the best premier China never had. Over the past four decades the 69-year-old head of President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has built one of the most remarkable CVs in modern Chinese politics.        在仰慕者看来,王岐山是中国未来最佳的总理人选。现年69岁的王岐山——国家主席习近平发起的反腐运动的负责人——过去40年间交出了一份现代中国政治中极为引人注目的履历。
        From his emergence as an influential young reformer in the early 1980s to his handling of trade and economic relations with the US during the global financial crisis, Mr Wang has played an important role in almost every pivotal financial and economic reform in modern Chinese history.        从上世纪80年代初作为一名有影响力的年轻改革者崭露头角,到在全球金融危机期间处理与美国的经贸关系,王岐山在中国现代史上几乎每一次关键金融和经济改革中都扮演了重要角色。
        More recently he has stood out in a much more political post. Since late 2012 he has been, as some refer to him, “the handle on President Xi’s knife”. Under Mr Wang’s leadership, the ruling Communist party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has tormented government ministers, People’s Liberation Army generals and state-owned enterprise executives. His investigators have arrested more than 150 officials with vice-ministerial rank or higher — so-called “tigers” — for alleged corruption.        更近一段时期,他在一个更具政治色彩的位置上再次锋芒毕露。自2012年末以来,他一直被一些人称为“习主席的刀把子”。在王岐山的领导下,执政的中国共产党的中央纪律检查委员会已让大批政府部长、解放军将军和国企高管落马。他手下的调查人员打掉了150多名涉嫌腐败的副部级及以上俗称“老虎”的高官。
        As China prepares for a crucial Communist party congress in the autumn, which is expected to formally mark Mr Xi’s second five-year term and reshuffle parts of the senior leadership, Mr Wang has become one of the central figures in the intense, behind-the-scenes machinations. By recent precedent, Mr Wang, who has passed the unofficial retirement age of 68, might be expected to resign from the Politburo Standing Committee and fade into the background. Instead, there is a growing whispering campaign that he will be given an expanded economic policy role — perhaps, even, as premier, in place of Li Keqiang.        在中国筹备今秋关键的中共十九大——预计将正式标志习近平开启第二个五年任期,并改组部分最高领导层——之际,王岐山已成为这场激烈的幕后权力斗争中的核心人物之一。根据近些年形成的惯例,已年过68岁非官方退休年龄的王岐山预计将退出中央政治局常委会,退居幕后。然而,越来越多的人私下议论,称他将在经济政策领域被赋予一个更大的角色——甚至有可能取代李克强出任总理。
        For many observers of the Chinese economy, such a promotion could help unlock Mr Xi’s stalled economic reforms, with Mr Wang the sort of tough enforcer and political infighter needed to take on the vested interests that have stifled previous efforts.        在许多中国经济观察人士看来,这样的晋升安排可以帮助习近平重启停滞的经济改革进程,王岐山是一位强硬的行动派和政治斗士,而中国正需要这样一位政治人物与那些扼杀了此前努力的既得利益者较量。
        “It would send a huge shock through the system if the guy who has all the information on everyone were suddenly put in charge of the economy,” says one person who has met Mr Wang.        一位曾与王岐山有过会面的人士表示:“如果掌握了所有人信息的那个人突然被安排主管经济,这将给整个体制造成巨大冲击。”
        Mr Wang’s career appears to be coming full circle as his anti-corruption inspectors have focused their attention this year on China’s financial sector. As a result, Mr Wang’s agency is having a profound impact on macroeconomic policy, helping the party contain financial risk while redirecting capital flows away from speculative activities and back into the real economy.        随着手下反腐调查人员将今年的注意力集中到中国的金融部门,王岐山的职业生涯似乎正在形成一个完整的循环。如此一来,王岐山领导的机构正在对中国的宏观经济政策产生深刻影响,帮助中共遏制金融风险,同时将资本流动从投机活动引回实体经济。
        In a closed-door session in the spring, one international delegation was surprised to see Mr Wang flanked by a large number of senior financial officials, according to three people briefed on the meeting. “I have previously focused only on [the anti-corruption campaign],” Mr Wang told his visitors, leaving the strong impression that he would be leading many more discussions about Chinese economic and financial issues in coming years.        据三名知情人士透露,在今春的一次闭门会议上,一个国际代表团惊讶地发现王岐山身边簇拥着众多高级金融官员。“我以前只关注(反腐)”,王岐山对来访者说——这给人留下的强烈印象是,他将在未来几年主导更多关于中国经济和金融问题的讨论。
        ------        ------
        A historian by training, after the chaos of the Cultural Revolution Mr Wang worked in an antiquities museum in Shaanxi province. He is famous for his wit — an attribute lacking in many of his senior party colleagues — and for being one of the best-read people at the top of the Chinese government hierarchy. In public and private conversations, according to friends and colleagues, it is not unusual for him to flit between subjects as diverse as Alexis de Tocqueville’s famous study of the French Revolution and the latest theories in astronomy.        作为一名受过正规训练的史学工作者,文化大革命动乱结束后,王岐山曾在陕西省博物馆工作。他素以机智——许多党内高官同僚缺乏的特质——闻名,而且还是中国政府高层中阅读最广泛的官员之一。据友人和同僚说,在公开和私下谈话中,他经常在各种不同的主题——从亚历克斯•德•托克维尔(Alexis de Tocqueville)关于法国大革命的著作到最新的天文学理论——之间来回穿梭。
        Mr Wang first emerged as an up-and-coming technocrat in the mid-1990s when he helped launch China’s premier investment bank, China International Capital Corp, a joint venture between China Construction Bank and Morgan Stanley that the latter exited in 2004.        上世纪90年代中期,王岐山首先作为一名很有前途的技术官僚崭露头角,当时他推动中国建设银行与摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)成立了中国最知名的合资投资银行——中国国际金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp)。摩根士丹利后于2010年退出。
        In 1999 Mr Wang oversaw China’s biggest-ever bankruptcy after Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp, a state-owned investment group, collapsed with debts of $5bn. In the first decade of this century, he was deeply involved in the restructuring of China’s state-owned banking sector.        1999年,国有投资集团广东国际信托投资公司(GITIC)负债50亿美元倒闭后,王岐山主持完成了中国有史以来最大规模的破产案。本世纪头十年,他深度参与了中国国有银行部门的重组。
        It was Mr Wang’s work on the Gitic bankruptcy that sealed his reputation as China’s best jiuhuo duizhang, or “fire brigade chief”. And when the Sars virus broke out in Beijing in 2003, Mr Wang was installed as mayor, where he defused the public health crisis and oversaw preparations for the 2008 Summer Olympics. As one senior government official puts it: “Everything Wang Qishan touches turns to gold.”        王岐山在广东国际信托投资公司破产案中的表现为他赢得了“救火队长”的美誉。2003年SARS病毒在北京爆发期间,王岐山被任命为北京市长,他成功化解了此次公共卫生危机,并负责2008年夏季奥运会的筹备工作。正如一位政府高官所言:“王岐山有‘点石成金’的本事。”
        This widely regarded Midas touch is one of the reasons why a “Wang-for-premier” campaign has been brewing in Beijing over the past year. Past procedure would suggest that Mr Li will be confirmed in the autumn for another five-year term as premier, while Mr Wang retires.        这种公认的“点石成金”的能力,是一场“王岐山出任总理”的造势运动过去一年一直在北京酝酿的原因之一。按惯例,李克强将在今秋被确认继续下一个五年任期,而王岐山将退休。
        However, in October an official publicly dismissed the supposed retirement age limit as “pure folklore” while a party journal quoted Mr Xi as saying that it “can’t simply draw the line based on age” when appointing officials.        然而,去年10月,一名官员公开将所谓退休年龄限制斥为“纯粹民间说法”,而一份中共党刊援引习近平的话称,任命官员“不能简单以年龄划线”。
        Such comments have heightened speculation that Mr Li, whose authority over economic matters has been eroded by Mr Xi, could be sidelined to head China’s rubber-stamp parliament. That would open the way for Mr Wang to ascend to the premiership.        此类言论加剧了外界的猜测,即李克强可能会被边缘化,改为领导中国的“橡皮图章”议会——全国人大。这将为王岐山出任总理之职铺平道路。李克强在经济问题上的权力早已受到了习的制约。
        Another option would be for Mr Li to remain as premier while keeping Mr Wang on the PSC, possibly with an economic and financial portfolio. “Xi and Li have buried the hatchet,” says one well-connected Asian diplomat who believes that Mr Li will keep his job.        另一种选择是李克强继续担任总理,同时让王岐山留任中央政治局常委,可能主抓经济和金融。一位人脉广泛的亚洲外交官表示:“习李之间已经言归于好。”他认为李克强将继续担任总理之职。
        Neither potential outcome, however, is preordained. Such pre-congress machinations are subject to change until the last moment. Mr Wang’s fate will not be confirmed until Mr Xi and his second-term leadership team walk out on stage at the conclusion of the party congress. As one former member of the Communist party’s Central Committee recently told a group of friends, according to two people familiar with the exchange, “we don’t know who the next premier is going to be”.        然而,两种可能的结果都并非注定出现。不到最后一刻,十九大召开前的幕后角力将一直充满变数。王岐山的去向,要等到十九大闭幕、习近平及其第二任期领导班子列队亮相之际才能落定。两名了解高层幕后交易的人士表示,一位前中央委员最近对一群朋友说,“我们不知道下届总理将会是谁”。
        Mr Wang has also made many enemies, especially in his five years as the head of the anti-corruption campaign, increasing the a risk he could fall foul of the party’s fierce internal politicking. Earlier this year Guo Wengui, a previously obscure Chinese billionaire living in New York, issued spectacular accusations against Mr Wang and members of his family on Twitter and YouTube. Many of them centre on alleged connections between the Wang family and the HNA Group, whose opaque ownership structure has attracted scrutiny from overseas regulators. HNA has vigorously denied Mr Guo’s accusations, none of which has been substantiated. But some China watchers started to count the number of days that Mr Wang failed to appear in state media as a potential sign of a falling out with Mr Xi.        王岐山也树敌颇多,尤其是在他主抓反腐运动的五年间,这加大了他陷入党内激烈政治斗争的风险。今年早些时候,现居纽约的一位此前鲜为人知的中国亿万富翁郭文贵,在Twitter和YouTube上对王岐山及其家人发出了耸人听闻的指控。多数指控都围绕王岐山家族与海航集团(HNA Group)的所谓关联。海航不透明的所有权结构已引起了海外监管机构的密切关注。海航断然否认了郭文贵的指控,且这些指控没有一项得到证实。但一些中国观察人士已经开始计算王岐山在官媒上“消失”的天数,作为他与习失和的一个潜在迹象。
        Both men are so-called “princelings” related to Chinese Communist party revolutionaries. Mr Xi was born to one while Mr Wang married the daughter of another. According to Chinese media reports, they have known each other at least since the Cultural Revolution when both men were “sent-down youth” in Shaanxi province and Mr Wang loaned his future boss an economics textbook. But so far every rumour of Mr Wang’s political demise, often attributed to Mr Xi’s potential wariness of him as a rival, has been shown to be exaggerated.        习近平和王岐山都是与中共革命元老有亲缘关系的所谓“太子党”。习近平的父亲是前中共元老,王岐山娶了另一位元老的女儿。根据中文媒体的报道,他们至少自文化大革命时期就已相识,当时两人都是在陕西的“下乡知青”,王岐山还从自己未来的老板那里“顺”过一本经济学教材。但到目前为止,所有关于王岐山政治生涯式微的传言——通常归结于习可能将其作为对手的担忧——都被证实夸大了。
        Mr Wang’s frequent absences from public view are usually signs that someone else — and not him — is in jeopardy. It was shortly after Mr Wang reappeared from his most recent absence earlier this month that the party’s anti-corruption body detained a sitting member of Mr Xi’s politburo for the first time, according to two people familiar with the matter. Under investigation for a “serious violation of discipline”,        王岐山时常从公众视野中消失,但这时候通常意味着其他人(而非王本人)处于危险之中。据两位知情人士透露,7月初王岐山从最近一次消失中再次现身后不久,中纪委首次带走了习近平领导的中央政治局的一名现任委员——中国最大城市之一重庆市的市委书记孙政才。因涉嫌“严重违纪”接受调查的孙政才,曾被视为习近平的接班人。
        Sun Zhengcai, the party secretary of Chongqing, one of China’s largest cities, had been considered a successor to Mr Xi.        与此同时,王岐山对中国金融界的整顿丝毫没有放缓的迹象。这轮打击始于今年早些时候多名金融家和私营部门大亨被带走,如身家约400亿元人民币(合59亿美元)的超级富豪肖建华。中国调查人员将他带走问话,因他涉嫌利用银行及其控制的其他上市公司推高各种金融资产的股价。
        Meanwhile Mr Wang’s sweep through Chinese financial circles shows no sign of slowing. It began earlier this year with the detention of financiers and private sector tycoons such as Xiao Jianhua        “肖建华是个毒瘤,”一位熟悉此轮金融业调查的中国官员称,“他对实体经济没有任何贡献。他让自己和很多人发了大财,却对国家造成危害。”
        , one of the country’s richest men with a fortune estimated at Rmb40bn ($5.9bn). Chinese investigators wanted to question Mr Xiao about allegations of using banks and other listed companies under his control to drive up the share prices of various financial assets.        上述官员解释说,王岐山本轮调查背后更大的经济政策目标是要“停止利用金融体系作为经济增长的杠杆”。“如果我们做到了,”他补充说,“许多其他的问题将迎刃而解,如投机性资产泡沫。”
        “Xiao Jianhua was a cancer,” says one Chinese official familiar with the financial sector investigations. “He did nothing for the real economy. He made a lot of people and himself very wealthy but was doing a disservice to the country.”        王岐山最强大的支持来自中国经济改革派、跨国公司高管和外国外交官。这些人士认为,世界第二大经济体迫切需要一位王岐山的导师朱镕基那样的行动派总理。朱镕基1998年至2003年担任总理。
        The larger economic policy goal behind Mr Wang’s investigations, the official explains, is to “stop using the financial system as an economic growth lever”. “If we do that,” he adds, “a lot of other problems will disappear, such as speculative asset bubbles”.        尽管只担任过一届总理,但朱镕基确信自己退休后将作为中国最有影响力的总理之一被铭记。朱镕基任内,中国加入了世界贸易组织(WTO),对国有工业和金融部门进行了全面改革——正是习近平政府首个任期内无法或不愿解决的那种复杂而棘手的改革。
        The strongest support for Mr Wang comes from Chinese economic reformers, international executives and foreign diplomats who believe the world’s second-largest economy desperately needs an activist premier in the mould of Mr Wang’s mentor, Zhu Rongji, who served as premier from 1998 to 2003.        两名接近朱镕基的人士称他其实很希望连任。改革派官员常称朱镕基为“伟大的总理”。因为自己得不到连任,所以他希望王岐山最终能当上总理,两人补充说。
        Though he served only one term, Mr Zhu retired secure in the knowledge that he would be remembered as one of China’s most influential premiers. On his watch China joined the World Trade Organisation and overhauled its state-owned industrial and financial sectors — precisely the type of complicated and painful reforms that Mr Xi’s administration has been unable or unwilling to tackle during its first term.        ------
        Two people close to Mr Zhu, who reformist officials often refer to as “the great premier”, say that he badly wanted a second term. When he didn’t get one, they add, he hoped that the job would eventually go to Mr Wang.        据其他了解中国最高领导层选拔过程的人士透露,正是朱镕基的游说才使王岐山在中央政治局常委会谋得一席之地。
        ------        但任命他主管反腐部门的决定却出乎所有人——甚至包括王岐山本人——的意料。在一段外泄的中纪委内部会议视频中,王岐山对一位说自己没准备好接受新职务的同僚开玩笑说:“对不起,我当中央纪委书记还没准备呢。你们查一查,十八大开之前,出乎党内外、国内外之预料之内外,说王岐山当中纪委书记?我敢说,我这句话不算过分吧。”
        According to other people familiar with the selection of China’s leadership team, it was Mr Zhu who lobbied for Mr Wang to get a seat on the standing committee.        “王岐山在国际上有人脉,且与群众关系密切,”一位友人补充说,“他说,很遗憾自己的多数同僚都做不到。”
        But the decision to appoint him head of the anti-corruption unit was a surprise — even to Mr Wang. In a leaked video of an internal CCDI meeting, Mr Wang joked about a colleague who protested that he was not ready to take on a challenging new assignment: “I said, ‘I’m sorry but I was not ready to be CCDI head [in 2012]. Who would have thought I would end up as CCDI head? It was beyond everyone’s expectation. I’m not exaggerating when I say this, am I?”        在2015年出版的回忆录《与中国打交道》(Dealing with China)中,美国前财长、高盛(Goldman Sachs)前首席执行官汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson),回忆起全球金融危机期间一次会议上收到来自王岐山的告诫:“你们曾是我们的老师,但看看你们的体制,汉克,我们不确定是否应继续向你们学习。”
        “Wang has an international Rolodex and stays in touch with people,” adds a friend. “He says it’s a shame that most of his colleagues don’t do the same.”        与此形成对照的是,王岐山对中国独特的国家主导的资本主义模式的信心似乎已增强,而且没有迹象表明他对习近平在几乎所有治理领域采取的更威权的方式有任何不安。在今春的一次公开会议上,王岐山说:“只有党政分工、没有党政分开。”
        In his 2015 memoir, Dealing with China, Hank Paulson, former US Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs chief executive, recalls an admonishment he received from Mr Wang during a meeting in the midst of the global financial crisis: “You were my teacher but look at your system, Hank, we aren’t sure we should be learning from you any more.”        他似乎还深信,自己与习近平五年前启动的政治旋风将会继续下去——无论他继续留在政治舞台还是退休。
        In contrast, Mr Wang’s confidence in China’s unique model of state-led capitalism only seems to have increased and there is no indication that he has any qualms with the more authoritarian approach Mr Xi has taken in almost every sphere of governance. “There is no such thing as separation between the party and government,” Mr Wang said at a public meeting in February.        王岐山在上述传出的视频中表示,反腐“不能说可能是一阵风,可能也就是搞搞运动,过两天就收了。” 而是“有开头之日无结束之时。”
        He also appears to believe that the political whirlwind he and Mr Xi unleashed five years ago will continue, no matter whether he remains on the political stage or retires.        Emily Feng补充报道
                
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