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洞朗对峙背后的中印深层竞争
Himalayan impasse highlights China-India tensions

来源:FT中文网    2017-08-07 15:21



        On a windswept Himalayan plateau usually frequented by seasonal yak herders, hundreds of troops from China’s People’s Liberation Army and the Indian Army are locked in a stand-off over a small but strategic piece of land.        在喜马拉雅地区,有一片狂风呼号的高原往常只有放牧牦牛的牧民按季节光顾,现在却有数百名中国人民解放军和印度军队士兵驻守在此,他们因一块面积虽小但具有战略意义的土地陷入对峙。
        Bullets are not flying, but rhetoric is, with Beijing warning New Delhi to “correct its mistake” by withdrawing its troops from the contested terrain, that China calls its own.         双方虽没发生交火,但已打起了嘴仗。北京方面警告新德里“纠正错误”,要求印军从这块争议性地带撤军,中国称这片区域为自己领土。
        India — which says it is has merely come to the defence of its tiny neighbour Bhutan that also claims the land — has ruled out a unilateral withdrawal, while insisting it wants a peaceful resolution of the problem.        印方则表示自己只是来守卫其邻近小国不丹的领土,不丹也对这片领土作出声索。印度已排除单边撤军,同时坚持要和平解决这一问题。
        In the past few days, China has ratcheted up its official demands for a swift Indian climbdown, raising fears of imminent escalation. A senior Chinese diplomat in New Delhi has warned of “serious consequences” if Indian troops fail to withdraw. The Chinese defence ministry told India that “restraint has a bottom line”.        过去几天,中方逐渐加大官方警告,要求印度方面迅速让步,引起人们对局面即将升级的担忧。中国驻新德里一名高级外交官已提出警告,如果印军不撤退,将造成“严重后果”。中国国防部则向印度发出声明,“克制不是没有底线”。
        Analysts say the showdown on the Doklam Plateau — known as Donglong in Chinese — reflects the increasingly bitter rivalry between the two Asian neighbours, whose relations have deteriorated despite efforts to reset ties and foster stronger economic relations.        分析人士表示都克兰高原(Doklam Plateau,中国称洞朗高原)的对峙反映了两个亚洲邻国之间日益激烈的竞争,尽管两国努力恢复关系,促进经济关系的加强,但两国之间的关系已恶化。
        Beijing is particularly irritated with New Delhi’s strengthening of strategic ties with both the US and Japan, and the privileged status that it grants the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.        令北京方面尤为恼怒的是新德里不断加强与美国和日本的战略关系,还给予西藏流亡精神领袖达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)以特权地位。
        “Doklam is not about a road,” wrote Praveen Swami, the strategic affairs editor of the Indian Express newspaper. “It is a message about China’s ire at India building alliances with its adversaries in Asia, and with the US. Beijing seeks, through the threat of force, to instruct India on how countries ought to conduct themselves.”        《印度快报》(Indian Express)战略事务编辑普拉文•斯瓦米(Praveen Swami)写道:“都克兰对峙并不是为了一条路。这是一个信息,表明中国对印度与其在亚洲的对手和美国建立联盟感到愤怒。北京方面想要以武力威胁来指示印度一个国家应该如何行事。 “
        For its part, New Delhi is wary of what it sees as China’s efforts to encircle India by increasing its influence over India’s neighbours, including its rival Pakistan. New Delhi is also anxious about China’s efforts to court Bhutan, whose international relations are in effect controlled by India, to the growing resentment of some Bhutanese.        新德里方面则十分警惕,认为中国通过对印度邻国——包括印度对手巴基斯坦在内——增加影响,力求包围印度。新德里还担心中国拉拢不丹的举动,不丹的国际关系实际上受到印度的控制,一些不丹人对此越来越不满。
        Zhang Ye, a fellow of the PLA’s Naval Research Institute, wrote that the stand-off was a “geopolitical competition in the disguise of a border dispute”, and would enable India to increase its military presence in the tiny Buddhist kingdom. “India is making use of Bhutan to increase its geo-advantage over China,” he wrote.        中国人民解放军海军军事学术研究所(Naval Research Institute)研究员张烨写道,这场对峙是一场伪装成边界争端的地缘政治竞争,将让印度能在这个佛教小国增加自己的军事力量。印度正在利用不丹来增加对中国的地缘优势。
        The stand-off erupted in mid-June, when the PLA began extending a road towards a strategically important ridge on India’s border through terrain claimed by both China and Bhutan, the tiny Himalayan kingdom that New Delhi treats as a near protectorate.         此次对峙爆发于6月中旬,当时中国人民解放军正朝着印度边界一座具有重要战略意义的山脊修建一条道路,而这条道路所要穿过的地区为中国和不丹共同声索。不丹是一个喜马拉雅小国,新德里将其视作受自己保护的邻国。
        India says its soldiers were sent at Bhutan’s request to persuade the Chinese troops to “desist” from building the road — construction that the Bhutani capital of Thimpu says violates its agreements with Beijing about how to resolve the boundary dispute.        印度表示,其士兵是应不丹请求来说服中国军队“停止”建设公路的——不丹政府表示,建设公路违反了它与北京方面就如何解决边境争端而达成的协议。
        But New Delhi also sees China’s effort to build a road towards Jampheri Ridge, which overlooks India’s Siliguri corridor, as a threat to itself. If completed, the road would allow the PLA to bring tanks within firing range of India’s most vulnerable point: the corridor is often referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck”, a narrow strip of land that connects its volatile north-east region to the country’s heartland.        但新德里还把中国将公路延伸至姐普山脊(Jampheri Ridge)的努力视为对自身的威胁——该公路俯瞰着印度的西里古里走廊。如果工程完工,那将让中国人民解放军的坦克射程覆盖印度最容易遭受攻击的地方:往往被称为“鸡脖”的西里古里走廊是一个将动荡不安的东北地区与腹部地区连接起来的狭长地带。
        Indian security analysts say this was a “red line” that New Delhi — often tepid in its response to Chinese construction in other contested areas — could not allow to go unchallenged. “There is no way the Indian army can back out of this,” said retired army general Vinod Saighal, who previously served in the area. “For India, it’s an existential imperative.”        印度安全分析专家表示,这是新德里不容挑战的“红线”——新德里往往对中国在其他有争议地区的建设活动反应温和。早先曾在该地区服役的退休将军维诺德•塞加(Vinod Saighal)表示:“印度军队没有办法打退堂鼓。对印度来说,这是生死攸关的事情。”
        Last week, Beijing claimed that New Delhi had reduced its troops on the disputed territory to just 48, but that it was simultaneously bolstering their position by “repairing roads in the rear, stocking up supplies, [and] massing up a large number of personnel” along India’s side of the border.        上周,北京方面宣称,新德里将有争议地区的士兵人数减少到48人,但印军还有大量武装人员集结在边界线上和边界线印方一侧,并“在后方整修道路,囤积物资,集结大量武装人员”。
        “The Indian side is always keeping the word ‘peace’ on the tip of its tongue but we should not only listen to its words but also heed its deeds,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement.        中国外交部在一份声明中表示:“印方现在言必称‘和平’,我们不仅要听其言,更要观其行。”
        Indian officials deny “thinning out” their military strength at the site of the stand-off and say several hundred troops remain arrayed against Chinese rivals some 100 metres away.        印度官员否认“减少”了对峙地区的军事力量,并表示依然有数百名士兵与约100英里以外的中国军人对峙。
        “War cannot be a solution,” Sushma Swaraj, India’s foreign minister, told parliament on Thursday. “Even after war, we need to talk to find a solution. Wisdom is to resolve issues diplomatically.”        印度外交部长苏希玛•史瓦拉吉(Sushma Swaraj)上周四向议会表示:“战争不可能解决问题。即便在战争之后,我们也需要通过谈判来找到解决方案。我们将运用智慧通过外交解决问题。”
        India and China now look set for a protracted stalemate, which many believe could last until the onset of the area’s harsh winter or even beyond.        印度和中国现在似乎会长期对峙下去,许多人认为它可能持续至该地区严冬来临之际,甚至更长时间。
        “This looks like it’s going to be a long crisis,” said Shashank Joshi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “It’s a battle of wills and there is no easy answer. It’s a much more severe disagreement than any of the others we’ve seen.”        英国皇家联合军种研究院(Royal United Services Institute)的高级研究员沙善•乔希(Shashank Joshi)表示:“这看起来会发展为长期危机。它是意气之争,无法轻易得到解决。它比我们看到的其他所有争执都要严重得多。”
        Additional reporting by Emily Feng and Lucy Hornby in Beijing        Emily Feng和韩碧如(Lucy Hornby)北京补充报道
                
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