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The lesson of the German election

来源:FT中文网    2017-09-30 06:45

        Germany has been jolted. Angela Merkel has taken a hit. The nativist Alternative for Germany sounds uncomfortably tolerant of Hitler’s Nazis.        德国一片哗然。安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)遭受重创。本土主义的德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)听起来容忍希特勒(Hitler)的纳粹分子,这令人不安。
        Some perspective is required. Britain has voted for Brexit, the US for Donald Trump. Sitting in Berlin, the backing given to the AfD by 12.5 per cent of Germans does not feel like the stirring of a Fourth Reich.        需要把眼下德国的形势放在国际背景中来判断。英国已公投决定退出欧盟,美国选举了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)担任总统。在柏林,12.5%的德国人支持新选择党,并不让人觉得德国快要进入第四帝国。
        Many Germans understandably are appalled that a party so virulently xenophobic should have broken the taboo that hitherto has excluded the far right from the federal parliament. You need take only a few steps in the capital to see how the memory of Germany’s darkest days has been preserved and nurtured as the custodian of today’s liberal democracy.        一个如此恶意仇外的政党竟然打破了迄今一直将极右翼挡在联邦议会门外的禁忌,这令许多德国人感到震惊是可以理解的。你只需要在柏林街头走上几步就可以明白,德国最黑暗日子的记忆是如何被保存和培育为如今自由民主的监护者的。
        So among the great majority of Germans who did not back the AfD there is a fear that the party’s arrival in the Bundestag could coarsen permanently the nation’s political discourse. Race and ethnicity are being restored as dividing lines. When the AfD demands the tearing down of minarets and says Germany should stop apologising for the Nazis, memories can curdle into nightmares.        因此,绝大多数不支持新选择党的德国人担心,该党进入联邦议会可能永久性地让德国的政治宣传变得丑陋。种族和族群重新成为分界线。当新选择党要求摧毁宣礼塔、并表示德国应该停止为纳粹道歉的时候,记忆可能演变为噩梦。
        The far right’s success, the former foreign minister Joschka Fischer thinks, “is a disgrace for Germany”. Mr Fischer fears that things can only get worse unless Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrats succeed in forming a stable coalition with the economically liberal Free Democrats and environment-driven Greens. No one is pretending this will be easy.        前德国外长约施卡•菲舍尔(Joschka Fischer)认为,极右翼的成功“让德国蒙羞”。菲舍尔担心,情况只会愈发恶化,除非默克尔领导的基民盟(Christian Democrats)与奉行经济自由立场的自由民主党(Free Democrat)和主张环保的绿党(Greens)成功组建稳定的联盟。没有人宣称这是轻而易举之事。
        The misreading is to talk about a hollowing out of Germany’s political centre. The Christian Democrats and their Social Democrat partners in the previous parliament’s grand coalition were indeed punished — both securing record-low national vote shares. There is a persuasive argument that the merging of centre-right with centre-left shut off the safety valve of wider political debate. Ms Merkel left space on her right flank for the AfD, while the Social Democrats offered more room to the far left.        说德国政治中间派萎缩就错了。基民盟以及他们在上一届议会中的大联盟中的盟友社会民主党(Social Democrat)确实受到了惩罚——两党的得票率都创出历史新低。一个具有说服力的观点是,中右翼与中左翼的合并,关闭了更广泛的政治辩论这个安全阀。默克尔将右侧的空间留给了新选择党,同时社会民主党为极左翼提供了更多的空间。
        Germany, however, did not vote for the extremes. Take out the AfD and the post-communist Die Linke and nearly four-fifths backed recognisably mainstream parties. The change is that the centrist vote is now shared among four rather than two or three parties.        然而,德国并没有投票支持极端主义。除去新选择党和后共产主义政党——德国左派党(Die Linke),近五分之四的选民支持明显的主流政党。变化在于,现在是四个而非两个或者三个政党瓜分中间派的选票。
        The AfD, initially born of hostility to the eurozone, fought the election on Ms Merkel’s decision in 2015 to open the borders to more than a million refugees, mostly from Syria. Nothing in the party’s campaign was deemed too low. The Muslim incomers were terrorists or otherwise set on suffocating the national character. Yet concern about how to integrate the new arrivals was shared by many more people than voted for the xenophobes. “We did the right thing, but never again,” I have heard many middle-of-the-road Germans say.        德国新选择党最初诞生于对欧元区的敌意,该党在本次选举中的胜利凭借的是拿默克尔2015年的如下决定做文章:对逾100万难民(大多来自叙利亚)开放边境。该党的竞选活动毫无底线。穆斯林移民不是恐怖分子,就是一门心思要掐灭德国的民族特性。然而,除了投票支持仇外主义政党的那些人,还有更多人也对如何让这些新移民融入德国社会感到忧心。我听到许多持中间立场的德国人说:“我们做了正确的事情,但再也别这么做了。”
        By the same token, the votes won by the far right were more than an expression of concern about Muslim immigration. The AfD performed best in the former east Germany — in places which have received few migrants, but which feel abandoned by the affluent west. Extensive programmes to integrate the refugees are greeted with resentment by the left-behinds in places such as Leipzig and Dresden. “What about us?” they ask.        同样,极右翼赢得的选票不只是体现出对穆斯林移民的担忧。新选择党在前东德地区表现最好——那些地区没有接收多少移民,但感觉被富裕的前西德地区抛弃。帮助难民融入社会的大规模项目,令生活在莱比锡(Leipzig)和德累斯顿(Dresden)等地区的底层人心怀怨恨。他们问道:“谁来帮我们呢?”
        At this point the pitch of the AfD meets that of Trump cheerleaders in the US, Brexiters in the UK and supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France. Blame it all on globalisation and “outsiders”, Jews and Muslims both. Yet in Germany the backlash has been on a much smaller scale. Ms Le Pen won over more than a third of French voters in her bid for the presidency. More than half of Britons voted for isolation from their own continent.        在这一点上,新选择党的论调与美国的特朗普支持者、英国的退欧阵营,以及法国马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的国民阵线(National Front)的支持者相同。将一切不幸都归咎于全球化和“外来者”,不管是犹太人还是穆斯林。然而在德国,反弹的规模要小得多。勒庞在竞选总统时赢得了逾三分之一的选民支持。逾半数的英国人投票支持退出欧盟。
        The danger now is not that Germany will be overrun by the far right, but that its mainstream politicians will turn inwards in response to the AfD’s advance        现在的危险不是德国将会被极右翼把持,而是德国主流政治家为了应对新选择党的崛起而自我封闭。默克尔经过精心计算的怯懦最终让她在大选中失去支持。大选结果需要组建复杂的联盟,这可能诱使她重蹈覆辙。
        . Ms Merkel’s calculated timidity ultimately lost her support during the campaign. The complex coalition-building demanded by the election outcome may tempt her to repeat the mistake.        如今政治上的重大分歧不是传统右翼和左翼之间的分歧,而是这两种人之间的分歧:一种人知道,应对当今时代挑战的最好方式就是志同道合的国家共同努力;另一种人则想要在边境竖起屏障。前一种方式的倡导者被赤贫者的愤怒所淹没。至于民粹主义者在兜售“万灵药”,根本无关紧要。
        The important political divide today is not between traditional right and left, but between those who know the challenges of the age are best confronted by the shared efforts of like-minded states and those who want to barricade the borders. Advocates of the former have been drowned out by the rage of the dispossessed. Never mind that the populists are selling snake-oil.        德国是一块试验田。民族主义曾毁掉了它,欧洲主义维系了它的安全和繁荣。没有哪个富裕的民主国家比德国更依赖一个开放的、基于规则的国际体系。当然,你可以斤斤计较于柏林承担了多少欧元债务。但现代德国经济的存亡取决于海外市场对其开放。
        Germany stands as a test-case. Nationalism brought it to ruin; Europeanism has supplied the anchor for its security and prosperity. There is no rich democracy that depends more on an open, rules-based international system. Sure you can count the euro debts underwritten by Berlin. But the modern German economy lives or dies by its access to overseas markets.        埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)关于深化欧盟一体化的全面提议,确定了正确的政治领域。柏林的第一反应是谨慎:你听到这样的话,即默克尔没有这份政治空间。但去挑战马克龙的远大计划是瞄错了靶子。对全球化的回应必须是共同努力,去保护和促进国家福祉。采取“蹲下防守”姿势,是无法说服人们相信这一点的。德国大选的教训就在这里——如果你正在寻找这个答案的话。
        Emmanuel Macron has staked out the right political ground in an expansive set of proposals for more EU integration. The immediate response in Berlin has been caution: Ms Merkel, you hear it said, does not have the political space. But to challenge the French president’s ambition is to miss the point. The response to globalisation must be a collective endeavour to protect and promote national welfare. This is not a case to be made from a defensive crouch. There, if you are looking for one, is the lesson of the German election.        本文作者目前是柏林罗伯特•博世基金会(Robert Bosch Academy)理查德•冯•魏茨泽克(Richard von Weizsäcker)研究员
        The writer at present is a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow of the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin        译者/裴伴

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