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Yuriko Koike, politician taking on Japan’s grey elite

来源:FT中文网    2017-10-09 06:02

        A suited woman, filmed from behind, walks down a corridor towards the light. Her heels ring on the floor. She passes two old men, wreathed in cigarette smoke. “Oppose us, will you?” they say. “Make a fool of the organisation?” The woman walks straight past. Four young men fall in behind her as she enters the light. Her face we never see, because we do not need to. The iconography, the silhouette and the story are unmistakable to every voter in Japan: Yuriko Koike.        一个身着西装套裙的女人——镜头拍的是她的背影——沿着一条走廊走向尽头的阳光。高跟鞋叩击地面,发出铿锵有力的笃笃声。她从两个吞云吐雾的老男人身旁走过。“跟我们对着干,就凭你?”他们叫嚣,“不把组织当回事吗?”女人径直走了过去。当她走到走廊尽头时,四名年轻男子跟到她身后。我们始终未看到她的脸,因为我们不需要看到。在日本,每个选民都不会弄错她的样貌、她的身影、她的故事——她就是小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)。
        Landing on unsuspecting prime minister Shinzo Abe like a slap from a sumo wrestler, the brief online video launched Ms Koike’s new Party of Hope, which will contest a general election called for October 22. Within 72 hours of her launch, Japan’s main opposition party collapsed, establishing Ms Koike as the main rival to Mr Abe’s ruling Liberal Democrats. The 65 year-old has still not said whether she will quit her job as Tokyo governor and stand for parliament. Nonetheless, she is within touching distance of becoming the first female prime minister of Japan.         这段简短的在线视频宣布了小池百合子新的"希望之党"(Party of Hope)的组建,后者将角逐10月22日提前举行的大选;这段视频就像相扑手的一巴掌一样,打得毫不知情的现任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)晕头转向。在她宣布组建新党后的72小时内,日本的主要反对党便瓦解了,确认小池为安倍执政的自民党(LDP)的主要对手。现年65岁的小池仍未表示是否将辞去东京都知事一职并参加众议院大选。无论如何,她距离成为日本首位女首相仅一步之遥。
        That would mark the spectacular culmination of a career spent running against a grey, male establishment using a mixture of charm, media-savvy, ruthless power politics and a gambler’s sense of timing. “What she has is decisiveness and guts,” says Takatane Kiuchi, a member of parliament who has defected to the Party of Hope.        对小池而言,这将标志着其政治生涯的最高峰,她用自己的魅力、对媒体的谙熟、无情的权力政治和赌徒般准确的时机把握,对抗着由中老年男性主宰的建制派。“她拥有的是果断和胆量。”已转投希望之党的国会议员木內孝胤(Takatane Kiuchi)说。
        Success for Ms Koike would mark the triumph of a talented outsider over the old party machines, exemplified by third-generation politicians such as Mr Abe. But Ms Koike is a defector from Mr Abe’s LDP — quitting last year in order to challenge for the Tokyo governorship — so her campaign marks a step away from a two-party system based on distinct ideological visions. It is set to be a clash not of policy but of personalities.         小池的成功将标志着一个有才华的局外人对抗旧式政党机器(以安倍晋三等家族中第三代政治家为典型)的胜利。但小池百合子是安倍自民党的“叛离者”——去年以无党籍身份参选东京都知事一职——因此,她的竞选标志着朝脱离基于不同意识形态的两党制迈出的一步。这场竞争注定不是一场政策之争,而是个性之争。
        That is ground where Ms Koike is well-placed to win. Born near Kobe in western Japan, she showed her independence young, moving to Cairo as a student to study Arabic. After a shortlived marriage to a Japanese man there, she moved back and became a presenter on World Business Satellite, a television business show that she made into a ratings hit.         这正是小池百合子更有优势获胜的地方。她出生在关西的神户附近,年轻时就展现出了自己的独立性,远赴开罗学习阿拉伯语。在那里与一名日本男子有过一段短暂的婚姻后,她又回到日本,成为了财经新闻节目WBS(World Business Satellite)的主持人,并使该节目成为收视王牌。
        “Koike’s time as a presenter on WBS is very important to understanding her perspective, her connections, current support base and the people with whom she now consults,” says one person who knew her at that time. “She understands business, particularly entrepreneurs, better than a lot of politicians.”         “小池在WBS担当主持人的时期,对了解她的理念、人脉、目前的支持度基础以及她现在的顾问非常重要。”一位那时就与她相识的人士表示,“她比很多政客都更了解商业,尤其是企业家。”
        Those years gave her a high public profile and formidable communication skills, which she brought to politics in 1992 as a candidate for the liberal Japan New party, an LDP breakaway that prefigures her Party of Hope. “She’d been a newscaster and had her own programme. Normally, even if someone like that were invited into politics they wouldn’t do it, or at least they’d hesitate,” says Hiroshi Nakada, who was Ms Koike’s secretary when she was first elected. “She just jumped straight in.”         那段经历给她带来了良好的公众形象和强大的沟通能力,1992年,她带着这些资本从政,代表从自民党分裂出的日本新党(她后来成立的希望之党从这里可见端倪)当选国会议员。“她当时是一名新闻主播,有自己的节目。通常情况下,像她这样身份的人即便被邀请进入政界,也不会答应,或者至少会犹豫,”小池首次当选议员时的秘书中田宏(Hiroshi Nakada)说,“她想都不想就直接跳了进去。”
        It was the first in a succession of bold risks. She moved through a series of minor parties before joining the LDP in 2002. Crucially, she won patronage from powerful figures including Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister from 2001 to 2006. He        那是她一系列大胆冒险中的首次。2002年加入自民党前,她曾历经过一系列小党派。至关重要的是,她获得了包括2001年至2006年担任日本首相的小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)在内的权势人物的赏识。小泉任命她为环境大臣,她在任职期间推动了“清凉商务”(Cool Biz)运动——号召上班族夏季不穿西装、不打领带、调高空调温度——此举提升了她在绿色环保方面的政绩。
        made her environment minister, where she promoted “Cool Biz”, a campaign for worker bees to ditch their neckties and turn down the air conditioning in summer, a move that burnished her green credentials.        2004年,小池作为小泉的“刺客”之一,放弃近畿区十拿九稳的席位,搬到东京,在那里与一名因反对邮政民营化而退出自民党的强硬派人士竞争席位。她由此确立了政治老男孩“杀手”的名号。
        In 2004, Ms Koike was one of Mr Koizumi’s “assassins”, quitting a safe seat near Kobe and moving to Tokyo, where she ran against an LDP hardliner who had left the party in opposition to postal privatisation. Her reputation as a scourge of the old boys was sealed.         后来,她支持安倍的一名对手争夺自民党领导权。后者输了,小池百合子似乎注定一辈子呆在后座议员席。但去年夏天,她走出自己职业生涯中风险最大的一步棋,退出议员的职务,与自民党候选人竞争东京都知事一职。她以压倒性优势获胜,并利用这一职位抨击抬高奥运会成本的官僚以及一个建在据称受到污染的地块上的鱼市。一年后,她有了一个可对抗安倍的全国性政党。
        She later backed one of Mr Abe’s rivals for the LDP leadership. He lost and Ms Koike seemed set for a life on the backbenches. But last summer she took the biggest risk of her career, leaving parliament to run against the LDP candidate for governor of Tokyo. She won in a landslide, using the post to slam bureaucrats over the cost of the Olympics, and a fish market built on supposedly contaminated soil. A year later, she has a national platform to take on Mr Abe.         她上台后将利用自己的权力做什么,则不那么明晰。小池钦佩玛格丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher),她的政治理念也与这位英国前首相类似。她常谈论“改革保守主义”,支持私营企业,致力于国家强大。像安倍一样,她经常参拜有争议的靖国神社(Yasukuni shrine),那里供奉着包括战犯在内的日本战争死难者,她还支持修改规定日本放弃战争的和平宪法。
        Less clear is what she would do with power. Ms Koike admires Margaret Thatcher and her politics resemble those of the former UK prime minister. She talks of “reform conservatism”, favouring private enterprise and seeking national greatness. Like Mr Abe, she is a regular visitor to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, which commemorates Japan’s war dead including its war criminals, and backs revision of the war-renouncing constitution.         现代化是一个不变的主题:她是埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的粉丝,即使她并不认同这位法国总统的政治理念。对出身政治世家的安倍而言,首要任务就是修改日本宪法,使日本成为一个“正常”国家。但对出身商人之家且独自打拼的小池而言,首要任务是摧毁日本古板的建制派、重振经济增长。
        A consistent theme is modernisation: she is a fan of Emmanuel Macron, even if she does not share the French president’s politics. For Mr Abe, the patrician descendant of politicians, the priority is revising the constitution and making Japan a “normal” country again. For Ms Koike, self-made child of a businessman, the mission is to tear down a stuffy establishment and revive growth.          赢也很重要。一名属于她外围圈子的政治人士称,她记录着一份“死亡名单”(应该是比喻),上面列着惹过她的人的名字。
        Winning also matters. One politician in her outer circle claims she keeps a “death list”, presumably metaphorical, of those who have crossed her.        目前,日本已被小池热征服,但在大选投票前的这段时间,还有很多变数。“我不喜欢去赌,所以我羡慕(她)有勇气看准时机纵身一跃,”曾与小池共事的自民党人野田圣子(Seiko Noda)说,“但一个政党并不能只靠小池一人。”
        For now, Japan is in the grip of a Koike boom, but much can change in the three weeks before votes are cast. “I have no feel for gambling, so I envy how [she] has the bravery to watch her timing and then jump off a cliff,” says Seiko Noda, a former LDP colleague who will be running against her. “But a party isn’t Ms Koike alone.”        本文两位作者分别为英国《金融时报》东京分社社长、驻东京记者
        The writers are the FT’s Tokyo bureau chief and Tokyo correspondent        译者/何黎

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