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生产率增长低迷拖慢全球复苏步伐
Weak productivity growth hampers global recovery

来源:FT中文网    2017-10-09 11:34



        The global economy is experiencing its broadest and strongest upturn for more than five years, but that improvement is being undermined by weak productivity growth.        全球经济正在经历5年多以来最广泛、最强劲的复苏,但这种势头正受到生产率增长低迷的阻碍。
        An update to a tracking index compiled by the Brookings Institution think-tank and the Financial Times confirms the momentum of the global growth cycle and shows that the outlook for the rest of the year and 2018 remains healthy.        布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)和英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)联合编制的一项追踪指标的最新读数证实了全球增长周期的势头,并表明今年余下时间和2018年的经济前景仍然保持良好。
        The index, which covers all significant advanced and developing economies, is at or close to five-year highs on measures of the real economy, confidence and financial conditions.        该指数覆盖所有重要的发达经济体和发展中经济体,包括实体经济、信心和金融状况等方面的指标目前都处于或接近于5年高点。
        But with global growth rates well below those before the financial crisis that began a decade ago, the results echo concerns that further economic reforms are needed to maintain growth rates and stave off another downturn.        但鉴于全球增长率仍远低于10年前尚未爆发金融危机时的水平,这些结果印证了人们的担忧,即各国需要开展进一步的经济改革,以维持经济增速并防范下一轮衰退。
        In recent weeks the OECD has urged finance ministers and central bankers to use the “window of opportunity” created by the upturn wisely after the economic troubles of the past decade. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has urged them not to let a decent recovery “go to waste”.        最近几周,经合组织(OECD)督促各国财政部长和央行行长,在经历了10年的经济困境后,要巧妙地利用经济复苏创造的“机会窗口”。国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)督促他们不要“白白浪费”这一轮还算强劲的复苏。
        Professor Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that while the recovery was broad based and reasonably strong, “policymakers seem averse to the broader and tougher reforms that may be necessary to kick growth into a higher gear”. He said recovery from the financial crisis was still hampered by “weak productivity and investment growth”.        康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授、布鲁金斯学会高级研究员埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示,尽管此轮复苏范围广泛且相当强劲,但“政策制定者似乎不愿进行更广泛、更坚定的改革,而这些改革对于促进经济更快速增长可能是必要的”。他称,从金融危机中复苏的步伐仍然受到“生产率和投资增长低迷”的阻碍。
        The Brookings-FT Tiger index compares many separate indicators of real activity, financial markets and investor confidence with their historical averages for the global economy and for each country separately. The data suggest growth, financial conditions and confidence has improved in both advanced economies and emerging markets in recent months.        布鲁金斯学会/英国《金融时报》“全球经济复苏追踪指标”(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery,简称:TIGER),把全球经济和各国的实体经济活动、金融市场和投资者信心等多项指标与各自的历史平均水平分别进行比较。数据表明,最近几个月发达经济体和发展中经济体的经济增长、金融状况和信心都有所改善。
        The composite Tiger index is at its highest level since 2012, indicating that economic data, on average, across the world is significantly stronger than it has been at any time in those five years. Confidence is particularly strong in advanced economies. The US picked up after President Donald Trump’s election victory late last year, while confidence has improved in the resurgent eurozone this year.        TIGER综合指数目前正处于自2012年以来的最高水平,这表明总体来看世界各地的经济数据都显著强于过去5年内任意时间的水平。发达经济体的投资者信心格外强劲。在去年底唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得美国大选后,美国投资者信心回升,与此同时,在经济复苏的欧元区,投资者信心今年也有所提高。
        A sharp recovery in commodity exporters, which have repaired much of the damage of the oil price slump that began in 2014, has enabled the emerging economies index of real economic data to improve towards recent highs. Exuberant stock markets have also helped financial conditions remain supportive of growth in the global economy.        大宗商品出口国(已经从自2014年开始的油价暴跌的冲击中恢复了大半)的明显复苏,使得新兴经济体指数中的实体经济指标有所提高,朝着近年高点靠近。股市繁荣,也有助于金融状况继续支持全球经济增长。
        Although 2017 is likely to show a significant improvement on 2016, there are concerns that the global economy is still not generating a sufficiently strong expansion to raise living standards in many countries and ease some of the financial strains of the past decade.        尽管2017年经济可能较2016年显著改善,但有些人担心全球经济扩张仍然不够强劲,无法使很多国家提高居民生活水平并缓解过去10年的财政压力。
        “The combination of weak productivity and investment growth does not portend well for an increase in growth or even for the sustainability of the current low growth,” Prof Prasad said.        “生产率增长疲弱,加上投资增长低迷,对于经济加快增长、乃至维持当前的低增长都不是好兆头,”普拉萨德教授表示。
        “Policymakers should use the breathing space they have been granted to strengthen the resilience of their economies and policy frameworks to the inevitable next downturn. Otherwise, next time may be no different.”        “政策制定者应该利用目前获得的喘息空间来加强经济和政策框架的适应能力,以准备好应对下一轮不可避免的衰退。否则,下一次还会是老样子。”
                
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