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重塑俄美关系应“立足北方”
Russia and America can reset relations by looking north

来源:FT中文网    2017-10-10 06:24



        In a tweet in August, President Donald Trump said that the relationship between Russia and the US is “at an all-time & very dangerous low”. There are several explanations for this, but perhaps the most important is that Russia, being essentially a European country, still cannot accustom itself to        今年8月,美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在Twitter上表示,俄美关系正处于“非常危险的历史最低点”。对此外界有多种解释,但或许最重要的解释是,从本质上说是欧洲国家的俄罗斯,至今仍无法适应被西方排斥的现实。
        exclusion from the west.        停止当前这场对峙——与早先的冷战有些相似——的唯一机会在于改变接触中使用的语言。在叙利亚或顿巴斯等地方少谈论“合作”,多谈论旨在让俄罗斯最终融入西方国家大家庭的宏大项目。不是说让俄罗斯加入欧盟、乃至北约(NATO),而是一种完全不同的东西。
        The only chance of stopping the current confrontation, which carries echoes of previous cold wars, lies in changing the language of engagement. Talk less about “co-operation” in places like Syria or the Donbass and more about a grand project aimed at Russia’s final integration into the family of western nations. This is not a question of Russia joining the EU, or even Nato, but of something else entirely.        回顾西方世界的历史,显然它是以欧洲为中心的文明,欧洲处于西方文明的核心。后来,在其外围的美洲,定居者的殖民地成为几个独立的国家。但这个以欧洲为中心的世界还有一个侧翼、或者说外围地区,那就是俄罗斯:在西欧人进入加利福尼亚和新墨西哥的时候,俄罗斯殖民了西伯利亚和阿拉斯加(1867年将阿拉斯加卖给了美国)。
        Looking back at the history of the west, it is clear that it is a Eurocentric civilisation with Europe at its core. Settler colonies became independent states at its American periphery. But there was another wing or outskirt of this Eurocentric world — Russia, which colonised Siberia and Alaska (which it sold to the US in 1867), while the western Europeans marched to California and New Mexico.        在整个20世纪,俄罗斯自认是美国的对手。事实上,莫斯科希望被看作与美国对等,而非与“西方”世界对等。但如果人们不再从俄罗斯永远不会获准加入的“西方”世界的角度思考问题,而是开始谈论“北方”世界,这个问题的性质就完全不一样了。
        During the 20th century, Russia considered itself an adversary to America. Moscow really wants to be counted as an equal to the US rather than the “west”. But if one switches from thinking in terms of a “west” that Russia would never be allowed to join, to talking about the “north”, the issue takes on an entirely different complexion.        从这个角度看,美国和俄罗斯——欧洲人的定居者殖民活动打造的两个大陆强国——代表着欧洲文明较为年轻的两翼,其历史使命是补全“北带”缺口,让太平洋成为与几个世纪以来的大西洋一样重要的欧洲自我形象的核心。
        Looked at through this lens, the US and Russia — two continental powers built through settler colonisation by Europeans — represent the two younger wings of a European civilisation whose historical mission is to close the “northern belt” and to make the Pacific Ocean as central to Europe’s self-image as the Atlantic has been for centuries.        俄罗斯的政策制定者如今谈论的是将战略重心“移向东方”,这服务于脱离他们日益不信任的西方的整体努力。但这些战略家们忘记了俄罗斯的东方正是……西方:如果一个人从莫斯科向东走,他将会经过新西伯利亚、堪察加半岛、阿拉斯加南部、魁北克北部、爱尔兰、英国和丹麦,但不会经过北京或者上海——被视为俄罗斯“东进”政策的指向标。让俄罗斯人觉得他们不属于东方、而属于北方,这将改变一切。
        Russian policymakers today talk about “pivoting to the east” as part of an attempt to diverge from a west they increasingly distrust. But these strategists forget that Russia’s east is . . . the west: if one goes east from Moscow one will pass through Novosibirsk, Kamchatka, the southern parts of Alaska, northern Quebec, Ireland, Britain, and Denmark, but not Beijing or Shanghai, which are seen as the beacons for Russia’s “eastern” policy. Getting the Russian people to feel they belong not to the east but to the north would have a transformative effect.        就2016年来说,“北带”国家——美国、加拿大、一些欧盟国家和俄罗斯——控制着全球26%的天然气和20%的石油储量。它们拥有北极离岸油田的专属权利,并控制着世界上96%的核武器,同时占到全球61%的军事支出。它们创造了大约48%的全球GDP和大约三分之二的注册专利。
        As of 2016, the “northern belt” countries — the US, Canada, the EU nations and Russia — controlled 26 per cent of global natural gas and 20 per cent of oil reserves. They possessed exclusive rights for Arctic offshore fields and controlled 96 per cent of the world’s nuclear arsenals, while accounting for 61 per cent of global military spending. They generated about 48 per cent of global gross domestic product and roughly two-thirds of registered patents.        这些国家的人口总计超过10亿,它们的领土占到地球陆地面积的27%。一个面向北方的新的宏大项目甚至可能吸引持民族主义立场的当今俄罗斯精英,这主要是因为俄罗斯精英对目前俄罗斯与西方的分裂深感担忧,并担心来自南方越来越大的经济和人口统计学压力。
        The combined population of these nations exceeds 1bn, and their territory encompasses 27 per cent of the earth’s landmass. A new grand project oriented around the north could appeal even to the current nationalistic Russian elite — not least because it worries deeply about the current rift with the west and fears growing economic and demographic pressure from the south.        现在俄罗斯是虚弱的。但如果加以正确的接触的话,就可能改变已故美国地缘战略学家兹比格涅夫•布热津斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)所说的那盘“大棋局”的格局。
        Today Russia is weak. But if it were properly engaged, this could change the configuration of what the late Zbigniew Brzezinski, the American geo-strategist, used to call the “grand chessboard”.        想象一下,让俄罗斯加入一个自贸区和军事联盟,让它的公民有机会与西方人平起平坐,让它的精英有机会被视为北方政商界的一部分。这将是西方最终与一个老对手握手言欢、为21世纪确立一个新的持久地缘政治架构的方法。
        Imagine incorporating Russia into a free-trade zone and a military alliance, offering its citizens the chance to become equal to the westerners and its elite the opportunity to be considered a part of the northern political and business community. This would be a way for the west finally to make peace with a longstanding adversary and to secure a new and enduring geopolitical architecture for the 21st century.        本文作者是莫斯科后工业研究中心(Centre for Post-Industrial Studies)主任,同时还是华沙波兰高级研究学会(Polish Institute of Advanced Studies)研究员
        The writer is director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow and a fellow of the Polish Institute of Advanced Studies in Warsaw        译者/裴伴
                
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