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中国环保行动导致铁矿石跌破每吨60美元
Iron ore price falls below $60 a tonne as China fights pollution

来源:FT中文网    2017-10-11 06:15



        The price of steelmaking ingredient iron ore, a major source of profit for some of the world’s biggest mining companies, has fallen below $60 a tonne on concern demand will suffer from an environmental crackdown in China.        由于人们担心中国的环保督查行动将影响需求,铁矿石价格已跌破每吨60美元。铁矿石是炼钢原料,也是世界上一些大型矿业公司的重要利润来源。
        Beijing has ordered heavily polluting industries that operate in the smog prone provinces of Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong to reduce output and curb emissions over the winter heating season, a period that runs from October to March.        北京方面命令在河北、山西和山东等容易产生雾霾的省份经营的严重污染行业在冬季取暖季(每年10月至来年3月)减少产量、抑制排放。
        Mills have started to cut steel production in some of the big cities in these areas, said traders, curbing demand for iron ore and other materials needed to make steel such as coking coal.        交易员表示,在上述省份的一些大城市里,钢铁企业已开始降低钢产量,抑制了市场对铁矿石和其他炼钢原料(比如炼焦煤)的需求。
        At the same time supplies from Australia, the world’s biggest producer of iron ore, have increased, further pressuring prices.        另一方面,来自世界最大铁矿石生产国澳大利亚的供应有所增加,令铁矿石的价格进一步承压。
        “We think 30m tonnes of [Chinese] steel production will be affected over the winter heating period,” said Serafino Capoferri, an analyst Macquarie, adding that was equivalent to about 48m tonnes of imported iron ore demand.        “我们认为,在冬季取暖季,3000万吨的(中国)钢产量将受到影响,”麦格理(Macqarie)分析师塞拉菲诺•卡波费里(Serafino Capoferri)说。他补充称,这相当于大约4800万吨的进口铁矿石需求量。
        The impact could be less pronounced if mills outside the restricted zone in China raise production or there is greater consumption of scrap. But even then it would still weigh on the market. Deutsche Bank estimates 30m tonnes of iron ore demand would be affected in this scenario.        如果在中国上述受限地区以外的钢铁企业提高产量,或者废钢消耗量增大,那么影响可能会不太明显。但即便如此,这仍将对市场构成压力。据德银(Deutsche Bank)估算,在这种情形下,3000万吨的铁矿石需求将受到影响。
        On Tuesday, benchmark Australian iron ore fines fell 4.1 per cent to a three-month low of $59.1 a tonne, according to a price assessment by The Steel Index, taking losses since the start of September to more than 20 per cent.        根据钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)的价格评估,周二,基准澳大利亚铁矿粉价格下降了4.1%,至每吨59.1美元的3个月低点,导致自9月初以来的累计降幅达到20%以上。
        Over the past month, there has been a strong increase in supplies from Australia as a major new mine called Roy Hill has ramped up output and Rio Tinto has increased volumes in an effort to meet a full-year production target of 330m tonnes.        过去一个月里,来自澳大利亚的供应大幅增加,因为大型新铁矿Roy Hill提高了产量,而力拓(Rio Tinto)为实现3.3亿吨的全年生产目标也提高了产量。
        Based on vessel movements in and out of ports, UBS reckons Rio shipped 84.6m tonnes of ore from its mines in Western Australia in the three months to September, a rise of almost 9 per cent on the previous quarter.        根据货轮进出港口的情况,瑞银(UBS)估算出,今年第三季度,力拓从其位于西澳大利亚州(Western Australia)的矿场发运的铁矿石达到8460万吨,环比增幅接近9%。
        With supplies expected to remain robust over the rest of the quarter, prices could remain below $60 a tonne, said traders. However, the affect on profits at major mining houses will vary according to type of ore they produce.        交易员表示,由于供应量在当前季度的剩余时间内预计会保持强劲,铁矿石价格可能会保持在每吨60美元以下。然而,这对于主要矿业公司利润的影响将是不同的,取决于它们生产的铁矿石类型。
        The recent restriction on sintering in China — the highly polluting process that turns iron ore fines into a material that can be used in blast furnaces — has seen premiums for “direct charge” material such as lump and pellets spike sharply higher. That is a boon for companies such as Brazil’s Vale or Anglo American.        近来中国对烧结——这是把铁矿粉变为可以在高炉中使用的原料的污染严重的流程——的限制,已大幅推高块矿和球团矿等“直接”原料的溢价。这对巴西的淡水河谷(Vale)或英美资源(Anglo American)等企业构成利好。
        “We calculate that at current prices that Anglo’s Kumba mine is generating $5 a tonne more in margin that the traditional lowest-cost Australian mines at Rio or BHP Billiton,” said Tyler Broda, analyst at RBC Capital.        “根据我们的测算,在当前价格水平上,英美资源旗下库博(Kumba)矿场的利润比力拓或必和必拓(BHP Billiton)位于澳大利亚的传统上成本最低的矿场要高出5美元/吨,”加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)分析师泰勒•布罗达(Tyler Broda)表示。
        That fact has helped support Anglo’s share price, which has risen almost 4 per cent over the past month, outperforming its peers and the iron ore price.        这一情况帮助维持了英美资源的股价,该股在过去1个月里上涨近4%,跑赢同行股价和铁矿石价格。
        Additional reporting by Henry Sanderson        孙德生(Henry Sanderson)补充报道
                
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