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经合组织称提升投资才能维持增长
Raise investment to maintain growth, says OECD

来源:FT中文网    2017-11-29 12:11



        Business investment rates in most large economies remain too low to keep the global economy powering forward for long, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Tuesday.        经合组织(OECD)周二警告称,多数大型经济体的企业投资率仍然过低,无法维持全球经济长久增长。
        In its latest Economic Outlook, the club of mostly rich nations said the momentum and high global growth rates would continue next year but fade in 2019 unless investment improved.        这个基本由富裕国家组成的组织在其最新的《经济展望》(Economic Outlook)中表示,全球经济明年将继续保持增长势头和高增长率,但在2019年将走下坡路——除非投资情况有所改善。
        Catherine Mann, chief economist, said: “Policy is currently stimulative but in the absence of structural reforms we won’t get the private sector investment to get the productivity improvements we need.”        首席经济学家凯瑟琳•曼(Catherine Mann)表示:“目前的经济政策是刺激性的,但不进行结构性改革,我们就不会看到实现必要生产率提高所需的私人部门投资。”
        The organisation, which is tasked with improving economic performance, said the upturn is largely cyclical and has been spurred on by central banks’ efforts to lower the cost of borrowing and governments’ easing back on austerity.        承担改善全球经济表现任务的经合组织表示,这种好转在很大程度上是周期性的,且一直受到如下两个因素的推动:央行降低借贷成本,政府财政政策由紧缩转向宽松。
        This combination, Ms Mann said, had led to the strongest synchronised upturn since 2010, with all the 35 advanced economy countries that belong to the OECD growing and most of them enjoying an accelerating expansion.        曼表示,这两个因素共同推动了全球经济实现2010年以来最强劲的同步好转,经合组织内35个先进经济体都在增长,其中大部分都在加速扩张。
        “Countries should use this period of growth for policies to ensure the dynamism continues when fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is no longer active,” she said.        她说:“各国应利用这个增长时期推行一些政策,以确保不再有财政和货币政策刺激时,这种活力可以继续下去。”
        The OECD forecasts that the global economy will expand 3.6 per cent this year, rising to 3.7 per cent in 2018, just below the 2005-2014 average, but will ease back to 3.6 per cent in 2019. This “hump shape” of projected growth rates is expected to occur throughout the largest economies — China, the eurozone, the US and Japan — because business investment has only just climbed back to normal levels, when it would traditionally be far above average levels at similar points in previous cycles.        经合组织预测今年全球经济增长率将为3.6%,到2018年将升至3.7%,略低于2005年至2014年的平均水平,但到2019年将回落到3.6%。这一“驼峰状”预测增长率预计将出现在所有大型经济体——中国、欧元区、美国和日本——因为企业投资才仅回升至正常水平,而在此前周期中的类似时点,企业投资通常要远高于平均水平。
                
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