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政府应准备应对自动化带来的普遍失业
Authorities urged to prepare for automation

来源:FT中文网    2017-11-29 13:24



        Hundreds of millions of workers whose jobs are wiped out by automation between now and 2030 will still find gainful employment — but only if governments in the countries most affected embark on massive retraining and infrastructure spending.        从现在起到2030年,数以亿计的工人将因自动化失去工作岗位,他们仍将有机会找到有报酬的工作,但前提是那些受影响最大的国家的政府开始展开大规模再培训和基建投资。
        That is according to one of the most exhaustive studies yet of the likely effects of artificial intelligence and robotics. The report, from the McKinsey Global Institute, echoes a growing view among economists that the robot future is not entirely bleak for humans, though it may take efforts on a par with the post-second world war Marshall Plan and GI Bill to adapt.        上述说法来自对人工智能和机器人可能产生的影响进行的最详尽研究之一。麦肯锡全球研究院(MGI)的这份报告呼应了经济学界日益流行的一个观点,即未来的机器人时代人类并非全无希望,但要适应这个时代人类可能需要采取如二战后“马歇尔计划”(Marshall Plan)和《退伍军人法》(GI Bill)那样的努力。
        The research arm of McKinsey, the professional services firm, warned earlier this year that about half the tasks that workers perform could already be automated using today’s technology. Few jobs are likely to be handled entirely by machines, but that still pointed to widespread redundancy, if the remaining work is reorganised among fewer workers.        专业服务公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)旗下的这家研究机构今年早些时候曾警告称,工人们从事的约一半的工作已经可以利用今天的技术实现自动化了。可能完全交由机器处理的工作不多,但如果剩下的工作任务在更少的工人中重新分配的话,仍会产生普遍的失业。
        But in a new study issued yesterday outlining the likely real-world impact, MGI suggested that economic growth, the staggered rate of tech adoption and new types of work could more than make up the slack.        但在昨日发布的阐述自动化可能对现实世界造成的影响的新研究报告中,MGI指出,经济增长、新技术快速投入应用以及新型工作,有可能会产生更大的正面影响。
        “There’s a line of thought out there that all the jobs will gone and maybe in the next two decades,” said Michael Chui, a partner at MGI. Those predictions looked too pessimistic, he added, though “the scale of the challenge is really significant”.        MGI合伙人Michael Chui称:“有一种思路认为,所有工作岗位都将消失,或许就在未来20年。”他表示,这些预测过于悲观,尽管“挑战的确巨大”。
        The upheaval in the workforce will be comparable to the industrial revolution, when agricultural workers flooded to cities, the report predicts, though retraining hundreds of millions of workers in the middle of their careers represents an even bigger challenge. Also, countries most affected, including the US and Japan, will need to pump money into infrastructure and construction to take up the slack.        该报告预测,劳动力领域的剧变,将堪比工业革命时期,当时大量农业人口涌入城市,不过,在数以亿计的工人的职业生涯中期对他们进行再培训将是一项更大的挑战。此外,包括美国和日本在内的受影响最大的国家,将需要向基础设施和建筑领域注入大量资金,以应对冲击。
        The consultants estimate that 15 per cent of hours worked today will have been automated by 2030, wiping out 400m jobs. The pace of job-destruction could be double that if companies put artificial intelligence and robotics to use more quickly than expected, with developed countries — where workers earn the most and tech adoption is fastest — seeing a third or more of jobs going.        那些咨询顾问们估计,如今的15%的工作时间到2030年将实现自动化,从而淘汰4亿个工作岗位。如果企业应用人工智能和机器人的速度比预期更快,工作岗位被淘汰的速度或将翻倍。在工人薪酬最高、技术应用最快的发达国家,将有三分之一或更多的就业岗位消失。
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