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沙特王储的大胆改革:机遇与风险并存
Saudi Arabia’s reform drive is bold, yet fraught with risk

来源:FT中文网    2018-01-08 07:25



        The Middle East’s most dynamic leader this year, albeit in a sluggish field, would be Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia. MbS, as the 32-year-old wunderkind is known, has seized the reins of power and set a dizzying pace for a ruling family that by habit coalesces slowly around low common denominators, with caution and consensus as its watchwords.        2017年中东最有活力的领导人要算沙特王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman),虽说这是一个缺乏活力的地区。这位32岁的被人称呼为“MbS”的青年才俊已经掌握了权力,给一个习惯于围绕极弱的共同点缓慢凝聚力量、以谨慎和共识为口号的统治家族带来快速变化。
        Saudi Arabia’s radical attempt to fire up its economy with private investment and wean it off dwindling oil revenue is a story with huge implications. There is no doubting the ambition and energy with which MbS, licensed by his aged father, King Salman, is propelling economic and social reform; or how important it is, for the region as well as the kingdom, that he succeeds.        沙特采取激进举措,力求以私人投资推动经济发展,摆脱对日益减少的石油收入的依赖,这具有深远意义。毋庸置疑,获得其年迈父亲萨勒曼国王(King Salman)首肯的本•萨勒曼拥有推动经济和社会改革的雄心壮志和充沛精力,这种改革对于沙特王国以及中东地区无疑也是极为重要的。
        His socio-religious liberalisation is bold, breathing fresh air into a stifled Saudi society. He has clipped the wings of the fanatical religious police. He is slowly dismantling gender segregation and the cloistering of women, and promoting mixed entertainment, lifting ludicrous bans on concerts and cinema. Next year, in a move that must stick in the craw of Wahhabi clerics, women will be allowed to drive.        他的社会宗教自由化运动非常大胆,为令人窒息的沙特社会注入了新鲜空气。他削减了狂热的宗教警察的羽翼。他正在慢慢废除性别隔离和妇女与世隔绝制度、推动混合娱乐、取消关于音乐会和电影院的可笑禁令。2018年,妇女将被允许开车,此举必定会激怒瓦哈比神职人员。
        The young prince, conscious the clerical establishment remains a centre of reactionary power, and who has cracked down on radical Islamists as well as dissidents, said in October that the kingdom must return to “moderate Islam”, and that 70 per cent of the Saudi population under 30 wanted “a life in which our religion translates to tolerance”.        这位年轻的王储意识到神职人员仍然是保守力量的核心,他镇压了激进的伊斯兰主义者和异议人士。本•萨勒曼在去年10月表示,这个王国必须恢复为“温和的伊斯兰教国家”,在30岁以下的沙特人中,70%希望“过上一种我们的宗教更加宽容的生活”。
        These are fighting words. If he means them, MbS will need to disempower the Wahhabi establishment, a cornerstone of the House of Saud’s legitimacy since the 18th century. That means cutting off billions of dollars Riyadh has spent exporting the totalitarian Wahhabi creed — which treats all other beliefs as illicit and ideologically fuels contemporary jihadism — and seizing back control of education at home.        这些言论具有挑衅性。如果他真是这么想的话,本•萨勒曼将需要剥夺瓦哈比当权派的权力,后者是自18世纪以来沙特王室合法的基石。这意味着要砍掉利雅得用于出口瓦哈比极权主义信条的数十亿美元——瓦哈比教派认为其他所有信仰都是不正当的,在意识形态上引发了当代的圣战——并在国内夺回对教育的控制权。
        A modern education for the mass of Saudis (the elites can always buy one for their children) is a precondition for the investor-driven and innovative economy MbS has set out in his Vision 2030. This is designed to identify engines of diversification that lift the kingdom purring into the post-oil era. Since the absolute monarchy has no plans to liberalise politically, moreover, education will have to start clearing the path towards a measure of pluralism. It is hard to overstate the stakes.        让沙特大众接受现代教育(精英们总是可以为他们的孩子买到现代教育的)是实现本•萨勒曼在其《2030年愿景》(Vision 2030)中提出的由投资者驱动的创新经济的一个先决条件。它的目的是确定让沙特进入“后石油时代”的多元化引擎。此外,由于这个君主专制政权没有政治自由化的计划,教育将不得不开始扫清走向多元化的障碍。无论怎么强调其中的利害关系都不过分。
        The government is re-examining targets and timelines that always looked unreal. At the heart of the economy programme are plans to partially float Saudi Aramco        沙特政府正在重新审视目标和时间表,它们看起来总是有些不太真实。经济项目的核心是关于让沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)部分上市的计划——沙特阿美是一家国有石油公司,在这个疲弱的国家,它算是一个精干的“国中之国”。但它真的值得本•萨勒曼投入2万亿美元或更多资金吗?不过重要的是前进方向。改革和财政紧缩的步伐已经改变,但方向没有。但这位王储的一些举措看起来鲁莽而大胆。
        , the national oil company that functions as a proficient state within the (flabby) state. But is it really worth the $2tn or more price MbS put on it? Yet what matters is the direction of travel. The pace of reform and fiscal tight-fistedness has changed, but not the course. But some of the crown prince’s moves look impetuous as well as bold.        去年11月,11位王子、富豪和媒体大亨,以及三十多名现任或前任部长因腐败指控而被捕,这无疑受到民众欢迎。社交媒体表明,此举发掘了民粹主义的深井。从这个意义来说,本•萨勒曼的举动创造了另一种合法性,尤其是在他试图代表的年轻人当中。但是对未来的投资者来说,这些措施可能太过任性和专横。
        Last month’s round-up of 11 princes, tycoons and media barons, and more than three dozen current or former ministers on corruption charges, is unquestionably popular. Social media show it taps into a deep well of populism. In that sense the crown prince’s initiatives create an alternative legitimacy, especially among the young he is trying to embody. But they may also be measures that are too wilful and arbitrary for future investors.        本•萨勒曼吸引投资的计划——从计划让沙特阿美进行首次公开发行到在红海新设5000亿美元的自由区——能否成功将取决于投资者对法治的信心。一旦外界形成沙特统治者可以随意掠夺资产的看法,绝对权力也是有弊端的。
        MbS’s plans to lure investment — from the planned initial public offering of Saudi Aramco to a new $500bn regional free zone on the Red Sea — will depend on confidence in the rule of law. Absolute power has drawbacks if the perception takes hold the kingdom’s ruler can seize assets at will.        反腐在一定程度上只是用来清除前国王阿卜杜拉的儿子、实力强大的国民警卫队的队长米塔布•本•阿卜杜拉(Miteb bin Abdullah)的幌子。继去年6月取代其堂兄穆罕默德•本•纳伊夫(Mohammed bin Nayef)成为王储之后,本•萨勒曼这么做扫清了通向王位的最后障碍。
        The anti-corruption crackdown was in part a smokescreen to purge Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, son of former King Abdullah and head of the powerful National Guard. That cleared the final obstacle in MbS’s path to the throne after he pushed aside his cousin Prince Mohammed bin Nayef to supplant him as crown prince last June.        然而,关于本•萨勒曼“强迫性购买行为”的报道削弱了反腐效果:他花费5亿美元购买一艘游艇、花费4.5亿美元购买一幅列奥纳多•达芬奇(Leonardo da Vinci)的画作,以及花费3.2亿美元购买位于凡尔赛宫附近的路易十四城堡。本•萨勒曼在地缘政治方面也比他自己以为的更弱。逊尼派掌权的阿拉伯国家沙特正在与什叶派掌权的以波斯人为主的伊朗激烈争夺地区主导地位。
        Yet, its message is weakened by reports of MbS’s compulsive buying: a $500m yacht; a $450m Leonardo da Vinci painting; a $320m neo-Bourbon folly near Versailles. The crown prince is also weaker than he seems to suppose geopolitically. Sunni Arab Saudi Arabia is engaged in a no-holds barred contest for regional mastery with Shia Persian Iran.        沙特无法与伊朗的准军事实力相提并论,伊朗利用西方在伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩的失误,获得了阿拉伯世界从扎格罗斯山脉到地中海的一大块土地。伊朗目前已与俄罗斯、北约盟友土耳其结盟。沙特的支持者美国正在地区性撤退,而且在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的领导下显得混乱并具有煽动性。
        Saudi Arabia cannot match the paramilitary prowess of Iran, which has exploited the west’s mistakes in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to cut a swath through Arab lands from the Zagros Mountains to the Mediterranean. Iran, for the moment, is part of a tripod of regional power with Russia and Nato ally Turkey. The Saudis’ US patron is in regional retreat, and under Donald Trump, chaotic and inflammatory.        例如,特朗普12月承认耶路撒冷是以色列的首都,这可能会迫使本•萨勒曼重申沙特的宗教认同,无论他愿意与否。沙特君主自称是伊斯兰教圣地的守护者,而不是国王。
        President Trump’s recognition earlier this month of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, for instance, could force MbS to reassert the kingdom’s religious identity whether he wants to or not. Saudi monarchs call themselves custodians of Islam’s holy places rather than kings.        本•萨勒曼有王朝政治的基因。他或许认为,与特朗普和他的家人——尤其是他的女婿贾里德•库什纳(Jared Kushner)——亲近就掌握了一手好牌。他看起来还真拿到了“王牌”。
        MbS has dynastic politics in his blood. He perhaps thinks with his closeness to Mr Trump and his family, especially son-in-law and princeling Jared Kushner, he has a hand of aces. It looks as likely he is holding jokers.        译者/裴伴
                
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