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US government bond sell-off gathers pace

来源:FT中文网    2018-01-11 07:16

        The US bond market has suffered a fierce sell-off as investors fret that central banks will move more aggressively than anticipated to end their crisis-era economic stimulus programmes, with some high-profile debt investors declaring a new era for fixed income.        美国债券市场遭遇一轮激烈抛售,投资者担心各大央行将比预期更激进地终结危机时期的经济刺激计划,一些知名的债务投资者宣告固定收益产品进入一个新时代。
        The yield of 10-year Treasuries on Wednesday approached levels not seen since the “Trumpflation” retreat nearly a year ago, hitting a nine-month high of nearly 2.6 per cent on expectations cash freed up by the recent US tax cut will finally help spark higher inflation driven by stonger economic growth.        10年期美国国债的收益率周三逼近自近一年前“特朗普通胀”(Trumpflation)消退以来未见的水平,达到近2.6%的9个月高点,原因是市场预期近期美国减税所释放的资金,加上更强劲的经济增长,将终于帮助推高通胀。
        An eagerly anticipated auction of 10-year US Treasuries later produced the highest ratio of demand since 2016, underscoring how higher yields can entice investors back into the nond market. That helped trim the yield rise to 2.57 per cent by early afternoon.        市场殷切期待的一场10年期美国国债拍卖,后来产生了自2016年以来最高的需求比例,突显高收益率如何能吸引投资者重返债券市场。这帮助收益率在午后收窄升幅,至2.57%。
        The global government bond market has started 2018 on the back foot, and yields rose sharply on Tuesday after data showed the Bank of Japan slowed some of its long-dated bond purchases. That stoked speculation that the Bank of Japan would join the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve in scaling back stimulus programmes this year.        全球政府债券市场在2018年开局不利,周二收益率大幅上升,因为数据显示,日本央行(Bank of Japan)放缓了一部分长期债券购买操作。这引发人们猜测日本央行今年将加入欧洲央行(ECB)和美联储(Federal Reserve)的行列,开始缩减刺激计划。
        The sell-off deepened on Wednesday amid market speculation that Chinese authorities viewed US government bonds as less attractive. The sense that the three-decade bond bull market was coming to a close was reinforced by Bill Gross, the so-called bond king, who publicly declared he had shorted US Treasuries.        周三抛售加剧,其背景是市场揣测中国当局认为美国政府债券吸引力下降。有“债券之王”之称的比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)强化了持续30年的债券牛市即将结束的感觉,他公开宣告已开始卖空美国国债。
        Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital who is viewed as Mr Gross’s rival and is a closely followed bond investor, lent his weight to the bearish sentiment, saying central bank policy was shifting to an “era of quantitative tightening”.        Doubleline Capital创始人杰弗里•冈拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)是另一位受到紧密追随的债券投资者,被视为格罗斯的竞争对手。他表态赞同看空情绪,称央行政策正在转向“量化收紧时代”。
        While the Japanese central bank’s trimming of long-dated bond purchases was not announced as an official change of policy, it was enough to reinforce the sense 2018 will become a turning point in the post-crisis era of ultra-stimulative monetary policy.        尽管日本央行缩减长期债券购买并未被宣布为正式的政策转变,但此举足以强化市场的感觉,即2018年将成为后危机时期超级刺激性货币政策的转折点。
        The yield on 10-year German Bunds has climbed to a six-month high of 0.54 per cent; January marks the start of the ECB’s halving of its bond purchases to €30bn every month. Even the Japanese 10-year government bond yield — which is still subject to the central bank’s “yield curve control” that aims to keep it at zero — has risen to 0.08 per cent this week, the highest since July.        德国10年期国债收益率攀升至0.54%的6个月新高;1月标志着欧洲央行开始将债券购买量减半,至每月300亿欧元。就连日本10年期国债收益率——仍受制于央行“收益率曲线控制”,目标是将其维持在零——本周也升至0.08%,为去年7月以来的最高水平。
        As a result of the sell-off, the biggest fixed-income exchange traded fund, the $53bn iShares fund trading under the symbol AGG, has lost 0.5 per cent this week to trade at an eight-month low on Wednesday.        此轮抛售的结果是,最大的固定收益交易所交易基金(ETF)、代码为AGG的530亿美元iShares基金本周缩水0.5%,周三跌至8个月低点。
        Even before the Donald Trump-backed tax cut, the world’s most important central banks had been slowly bringing an end to the emergency stimulus measures as the economic recovery in Europe and the US gained steam.        即使在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)支持的减税出台之前,随着欧洲和美国的经济复苏形成势头,世界各大央行已经在慢慢结束紧急时期的刺激措施。
        Economists have remained bemused by the lack of price and wage increases despite the tightening job market on both sides of the Atlantic, but many now believe the US tax cut will provide the boost needed to trigger inflation — which could force central banks to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively.        经济学家们迄今感到困惑的一点是,尽管大西洋两岸的就业市场均不断收紧,但价格和工资缺乏上涨势头,但很多人现在相信,美国的减税政策将提供触发通胀所需的推动——这可能迫使各大央行以更大力度收紧货币政策。
        The 10-year US “break-even” rate — a measure of inflation expectations derived by comparing the yields of inflation-proofed and conventional Treasury bonds — has this month climbed above the 2 per cent mark for the first time since March last year.        美国10年期盈亏平衡通胀率(衡量通胀预期的指标,通过比较通胀保值国债和传统国债的收益率得出)本月自去年3月以来首次攀升至2%以上。
        Not all investors are convinced that inflation is finally at hand. Oliver Jones of Capital Economics noted that factors such as a global savings glut and new technologies that allow companies to keep prices low would keep inflation in check.        并非所有投资者都相信通胀终于即将到来。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的奥利弗•琼斯(Oliver Jones)指出,种种因素(比如全球储蓄过剩和让企业得以保持低价的新技术)将把通胀保持在低位。
        “We think that investors are underestimating how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates this year. But we doubt that this would mark the start of a bloodbath in bond markets, even allowing for reduced support from central bankers and reserve managers outside the US,” Mr Jones said.        “我们认为投资者低估了美联储今年加息的速度会有多快。但我们不认为这标志着债券市场会遭遇一场血洗,即使考虑到美国以外的央行和储备管理者缩减刺激计划之后也是如此,”琼斯表示。
        Mr Gross, who earned the “bond king” nickname while chief investment officer at Pimco and is now a fund manager at Janus Henderson, wrote on Twitter: “Bond bear market confirmed today. 25-year long-term trend lines broken in 5yr and 10yr maturity Treasuries.”        在担任太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)首席投资官期间赢得“债券之王”大名的格罗斯,如今是Janus Henderson的一名基金经理。他在Twitter上写道:“债券市场今天确认了。5年和10年期美国国债的25年长期趋势线已被打破。”
        Mr Gundlach warned that it would be a “big deal” if yields on the 10-year Treasury broke through 2.63 per cent — something that would breach a technical level and accelerate the sell-off, he predicted.        冈拉克警告称,如果10年期美国国债收益率突破2.63%,那将是一件“大事”。他预测,那将突破一条技术阻力线,加快此轮抛售。

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