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德国股市受到全球贸易紧张拖累
Global trade tensions trouble Germany’s stock market

来源:FT中文网    2018-03-06 16:59



        The threat of a global trade war has created a new headwind for a German stock market full of multinational companies, leaving the benchmark Dax index challenging London’s FTSE 100 as the worst performing major European stock market this year.        爆发一场全球贸易战的威胁,给包含众多跨国公司的德国股市带来了新的阻力,导致其基准的DAX指数(DAX Index)可能跑输富时100指数(FTSE 100),成为今年欧洲股市中表现最差的主要指数。
        Although the Dax, which includes just 30 companies, climbed on Monday, BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, the German carmakers that have been ensnared in the escalating rhetoric between the US and Europe over tariffs, all ended the day lower.        周一,尽管仅包含30只成分股的DAX指数有所攀升,但德国汽车制造商宝马(BMW)、大众汽车(Volkswagen)和戴姆勒(Daimler)全部收跌。这三家公司受到了美欧之间不断升级的关税口水战的困扰。
        Fears over protectionism have “hit the entire [Dax] index, quite simply because the overall index is such a global one”, said Maximilian Kunkel, UBS’ chief investment officer for Germany. “[Half] of the Dax has sales exposure outside of Europe.”        对保护主义的担忧“冲击了整个(DAX)指数,原因很简单,这个综合指数的全球色彩很浓。”瑞银(UBS)德国首席投资官马克西米利安•孔克尔(Maximilian Kunkel)说,“在DAX指数成份股企业中,有(半数)在欧洲以外地区有销售敞口。”
        The blue-chip index, which is a total return index and home to Adidas, Siemens and Bayer, is seen by analysts and investors as a good gauge of the global economy. Last year, it climbed 12.5 per cent, outshining the FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40. Nearly $16bn of net funds has flowed into European equities this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.        这个蓝筹股指数是一个全收益指数,成份股还包括阿迪达斯(Adidas)、西门子(Siemens)和拜耳(Bayer),它被分析师和投资者视为一个衡量全球经济的有效指标。去年,DAX指数上涨了12.5%,跑赢了富时100指数和法国CAC 40指数。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的数据显示,今年有近160亿美元资金净流入欧洲股市。
        However, the Dax has fallen 6.4 per cent in local currency terms this year, lagging behind French and Italian equities and leading only the FTSE 100. It is down 3.8 per cent in US dollar terms as the euro has strengthened. Shares in Volkswagen and BMW, two of Germany’s “big three” carmakers, are down nearly 10 and 8 per cent, respectively, so far in March. Daimler, best known for its Mercedes-Benz marque, has fallen 6 per cent on the month.        但今年以来,以当地货币计价的DAX指数下跌了6.4%,跑输了法国和意大利股市,仅领先于富时100指数。由于欧元走强,以美元计价的话,DAX指数下跌了3.8%。进入今年3月以来,德国“三大”车企中的大众和宝马的股价分别下跌了近10%和8%。戴姆勒的股价则下跌了6%。戴姆勒旗下最知名的品牌是梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)。
        US President Donald Trump last weekend threatened to “apply a Tax” on cars made by European manufacturers, which he characterised as “freely pour[ing] into the US”. The warning came after European officials upped the ante in a transatlantic war of words over trade, saying they would counteract any US tariffs which penalise European goods.        美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上周末威胁对欧洲制造商生产的汽车“征税”,他形容这些汽车“(正)不受限制地涌入美国”。此前,欧洲官员在一场跨大西洋贸易口水战中提高了调门,称将回击美国为惩罚欧洲商品而征收的任何关税。
        So far, President Trump has only announced plans for tariffs against steel and aluminium. Germany is the largest crude steel producer in the EU, according to World Steel Association data from 2017.        到目前为止,特朗普只宣布了对钢铁和铝征收关税的计划。根据世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association) 2017年的数据,德国是欧盟(EU)中粗钢产量最高的国家。
        “At the moment we don’t have a huge amount of clarity as to where this stops. Is it steel specific or a full on trade war?” said Marcus Morris Eyton, a European equities portfolio manager at Allianz, a Munich-headquartered insurer and asset manager.        “目前,我们还不十分清楚事情会发展到哪一步。是针对钢铁还是一场全面的贸易战?”总部位于慕尼黑的保险及资产管理公司安联(Allianz)的欧洲股票投资组合经理马库斯•莫里斯•艾顿(Marcus Morris Eyton)说。
        Germany exports more than it imports: the country had a foreign trade balance of €244.9bn in 2017, according to most recent data from the Statistisches Bundesamt. As “one of the biggest beneficiary of open trade with a large current account surplus, Germany is expected to lose the most if global trade was to be curbed,” RBC analysts noted.        德国的出口额大于进口额:德国联邦统计局(Statistisches Bundesamt)最新数据显示,2017年德国对外贸易顺差为2449亿欧元。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)分析师指出,作为“拥有巨额经常账户盈余的开放贸易的最大受益者之一,如果全球贸易受到抑制,德国的损失预计将是最大的”。
                
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