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朝鲜的对话提议有诚意吗?
Korean talks: breakthrough or false hope?

来源:FT中文网    2018-03-07 12:40



        North Korea’s apparent willingness to engage in talks with the US about abandoning its nuclear weapons appears to mark a breakthrough in the crisis, but progress will likely be fraught with uncertainty, traps and trade-offs.        朝鲜表现出愿意就放弃核武与美国进行对话,这似乎标志着朝核危机的一大突破,但未来能否取得切实进展充满不确定性和陷阱,并需要进行讨价还价。
        The Trump administration has made efforts to compel North Korea to give up its nuclear missile programme its top foreign policy priority since taking office, embarking on a campaign of “maximum pressure” through waves of economic sanctions and repeated threats of possible military action.        自上台以来,唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府一直力求迫使朝鲜放弃核导弹计划,并把这作为首要的外交政策工作,通过一轮轮经济制裁和不断威胁要采取军事行动,掀起了一场“极限施压”运动。
        President Donald Trump was quick to hail “possible progress”, a cautious embrace from a US president who last year threatened to unleash “fire and fury like the world has never seen” on the Pyongyang regime.        对于朝鲜方面的提议,特朗普迅速称赞这是一个“可能的进展”。这是一种谨慎欢迎的表态,去年,这位美国总统还威胁要对平壤政权释放“世界从未见识过的火与怒”。
        “If the Trump administration wants an opening; this is it,” said Vipin Narang, nuclear strategy expert at MIT.        麻省理工学院(MIT)核战略专家维平•纳兰(Vipin Narang)表示:“如果特朗普政府想要一个机会;眼下就是。”
        But while some admirers were quick to speculate that Mr Trump could be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize, the president himself warned of the risk of “false hope”.        不过,虽然一些崇拜者很快预测特朗普有机会获得诺贝尔和平奖(Nobel Peace Prize),这位总统本人却警告了“空欢喜”的可能性。
        Vice-president Mike Pence maintained a hawkish line, saying North Korea needed to take “credible, verifiable, and concrete steps toward de-nuclearisation” in a statement issued on Tuesday by the White House.        美国副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)仍坚持强硬立场,他在周二白宫发布的一份声明中表示,朝鲜需要采取“实现无核化的可信、可核查和具体的步骤”。
        Jenny Town, North Korea director at the US-Korea Institute, said Pyongyang’s apparent offer was actually a previously used vague formula that owed more to efforts at detente by Seoul than pressure from the Trump administration.        美韩研究所(US-Korea Institute)朝鲜事务负责人珍妮•汤(Jenny Town)表示,平壤表面上的对话提议实际上只是以前曾用过的一种模糊套路,这更多应归功于首尔方面旨在缓和关系的努力,而非特朗普政府施加的压力。
        “This is a serious proposal and it’s great that it’s coming from Kim but the reality is that this proposal is not new,” she said. “Yes North Korea is under more pressure but we’ve seen that pressure has led to more provocation — the fact that [South Korea president] Moon is willing to go and talk to Kim direct is what is new.”         “这是一个严肃的提议,而且是金正恩提出的,这非常好,但现实是这样的提议不是第一次了,”她说,“没错,朝鲜受到了更大的压力,但我们见过压力激起了更多的挑衅——所不同的只有(韩国总统)文在寅愿意与金正恩直接对话。”
        North Korea has previously said it would give up its nuclear arms only if the US drops its “hostile” policy, an amorphous formula that has previously referred to demands including freezing US military exercises with South Korean forces; removing all nuclear weapons from the region, and the US giving up its alliance with Seoul.        朝鲜曾表示,只有美国放弃“敌对”政策,朝鲜才会放弃核武。其提出的条件林林总总,包括冻结美韩军事演习、美国从本地区撤走所有核武器,以及美国放弃与首尔方面结盟。
        Bruce Klingner, former CIA analyst, said the so-called breakthrough might also represent the hopes of “an over-eager South Korean president who is concerned about US preventive attack” or a “charm offensive on steroids” from Pyongyang rather than an honest proposal.         曾在美国中央情报局(CIA)担任分析师的布鲁斯•克林纳(Bruce Klingner)表示,这次所谓的“突破”或许还代表着“担忧美国对朝鲜进行先发制人打击的、过于急切的韩国总统”的希望,或者是来自平壤的有如打了兴奋剂的魅力攻势,而不是怀着诚意的提议。
        “We’ve seen the movie so many times,” said Mr Klingner, who has worked on North Korea for 24 years, citing eight previous failed agreements.         “这一幕我们见过很多次了,”研究朝鲜问题24年之久的克林纳说。他称此前有过8次失败的协议。
        Others warned North Korea may be attempting a diplomatic ruse to buy the cash-strapped regime time to either pursue its nuclear ambitions or extract concessions on sanctions.        还有人警告称,朝鲜或许试图通过外交手段,为本国资金匮竭的政权争取时间,以继续追逐其核野心或者在制裁方面得到让步。
        Wide-ranging UN and bilateral US sanctions have deprived North Korea of revenues by prohibiting sales of products such as fish, textiles and coal. The head of South Korea’s parliamentary intelligence committee believes Pyongyang could run out of hard currency by October.         范围广泛的联合国制裁以及美国施加的双边制裁,通过禁止进口朝鲜鱼类、纺织品和煤炭等产品切断了朝鲜的收入。韩国国会情报委员会负责人认为,平壤可能在今年10月之前耗尽硬通货。
        “Washington should support improved inter-Korean relations so long as they don’t undermine sanctions,” said Kim Duyeon, a visiting senior fellow at the Korean Peninsula Future Forum in Seoul. “This peace offensive could be an insurance policy (for the North).”         “华盛顿应该支持朝韩改善关系,只要这种做法不破坏制裁,”首尔智库朝鲜半岛未来论坛(Korean Peninsula Future Forum)高级客座研究员金杜妍(Kim Duyeon)说,“此轮和平攻势(从朝鲜方面来说)可能是一种预防政策。”
        Experts worry that North Korea could continue to develop its weapons arsenal even if it puts a temporary halt to its extensive weapons testing programme.         专家担心,即使朝鲜暂时停止其大规模的武器试验计划,它仍有可能继续发展其武器库。
        Cheong Seong-chang at the Sejong Institute said North Korea’s commitment to halt provocations while talks are under way is also key.        世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)的郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示,朝鲜承诺在对话进行期间停止挑衅行为也很重要。
        “This can be an important occasion to pave the way for building political and military trust with North Korea as well as stably managing its nuclear and missile threats and preventing war," said Mr Cheong.         他说:“这可以成为一个重要契机,为与朝鲜建立政治和军事互信、平稳地管理其核和导弹威胁、防止战争铺平道路。”
        Ms Kim believes the most important development following the South Korean delegation’s visit to Pyongyang is a promise to set up a hotline between the leaders of the two Koreas and use it before the promised summit next month because it could reduce the chance of catastrophic miscalculation.         金杜妍认为,韩国代表团访问平壤取得的最重要进展是双方承诺开设一条朝韩领导人电话热线,并在下月可能举行的峰会之前启用该热线,此举可以降低作出灾难性误判的可能性。
        “It is not worth popping the champagne bottle just yet,” said Ms Kim. “This is not even the beginning of the beginning.”        “现在还不值得开香槟庆祝,”金杜妍表示,“八字还没一撇呢。”
        Additional reporting by Song Jung-a        宋京雅(Song Jung-a)补充报道
                
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