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文在寅的静默外交:他如何缓和朝核危机?
Moon’s quiet diplomacy propels progress in Korean peninsula

来源:FT中文网    2018-03-09 07:23



        For almost his entire political career, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been dogged by criticism that he is an appeaser who lacks the diplomatic prowess to deal with North Korea.        在几乎整个政治生涯中,韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)一直被批评是一个绥靖主义者,欠缺与朝鲜打交道所需的高超外交手腕。
        Now the Korean peninsula seemingly stands on the cusp of a breakthrough, with Pyongyang appearing willing to compromise on its nuclear weapons programme — a situation analysts say could not have happened without the quiet, careful diplomacy of Mr Moon.        现在,朝鲜半岛局势似乎即将取得突破性进展,朝鲜看起来愿意在核武计划上妥协——分析人士表示,如果没有文在寅低调谨慎的外交斡旋,这种局面是不可能达成的。
        “Mr Moon should be credited for significantly reducing the risk of war on the Korean peninsula by opening dialogue with North Korea,” says Paik Hak-soon, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.        “文在寅应该受到赞扬,他通过与朝鲜展开对话,大大降低了朝鲜半岛爆发战争的风险,”世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究员白鹤淳(Paik Hak-soon)说。
        “He has managed to find common interest between the two Koreas . . . He also understands the US dilemma in tackling North Korea’s nuclear and missile problems. It is almost impossible for [US President] Trump to stop North Korea’s missile development without opening dialogue.” he adds.        他补充道:“他找到了朝韩两国的共同利益……他还理解美国在应对朝鲜核及导弹问题上的困境。不展开对话,(美国总统)特朗普(Trump)要阻止朝鲜的导弹研发计划几乎是不可能的。”
        The challenge now for the South Korean leader will be to successfully hand the baton over to Mr Trump to pursue negotiations with Pyongyang over its weapons programmes.        现在,文在寅面临的挑战是能否成功地把接力棒交给特朗普,让美国就朝鲜的武器项目与朝鲜展开谈判。
        “If [Moon] orchestrated things in the driver’s seat so far, now he needs to manage and co-ordinate things from the back seat,” says Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.         “如果说,到目前为止(文在寅)是坐在司机的位置上安排事情,现在他需要从后排座位上处理和协调事情,”韩国统一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)研究员Chung Sung-yoon说。
        “It requires a different sort of leadership as a mediator and he may face some limits in this new role.”        “作为调停者需要具备一种不同的领导力,担当这个新角色,他可能面临一些限制。”
        Since he was elected almost a year ago, the South Korean leader has had to walk a fine line.        当选总统近一年来,这位韩国领导人一直不得不小心谨慎地维持一种平衡。
        A long-time advocate of engagement, he has attempted to build bridges with the Kim Jong Un regime while maintaining policy cohesion with the US — a key ally that has sought to isolate and economically punish Pyongyang for its development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.        长期以来一直支持采取接触策略的文在寅试图与金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权建立起桥梁,同时维持与美国的政策统一性——美国是韩国的关键盟友,而美国一直寻求孤立和从经济上惩罚发展弹道导弹和核武器的朝鲜。
        The challenge was magnified last month after Mr Moon invited a North Korean delegation to participate in the Winter Olympics Games in South Korea.        上月,在文在寅邀请朝鲜代表团参加在韩国举行的冬季奥运会(Winter Olympics Games)之后,这一挑战变得更为艰巨。
        For observers, the invitation risked alienating Mr Moon not only from South Korean voters but also the hawkish political establishment in Washington.        观察人士认为,文在寅发出这一邀请,不仅可能与韩国选民疏远,还有可能与华盛顿政界中的鹰派疏远。
        But the move appears to be paying dividends, with an exultant Mr Kim on Monday telling officials from Seoul that his regime was willing to consider denuclearisation and would stop weapons testing during talks.        但此举似乎正在带来回报,周一,金正恩十分高兴地告诉首尔来使,他的政权愿意考虑无核化,并将在对话期间停止武器试验。
        North Korea regularly reneges on its promises and negotiations with Pyongyang have often proved futile. But the overtures have nonetheless been hailed as a breakthrough on a peninsula that months ago appeared on the brink of war.        朝鲜经常违背许下的诺言,与平壤方面的磋商常被证明是徒劳的。但金正恩的提议还是被称颂为半岛局势的突破性进展,毕竟数月前朝鲜半岛看似将要滑向战争边缘。
        For observers, the developments are a result of Mr Moon’s step-by-step diplomacy; in particular, his insistence that denuclearisation be on table before agreeing to a mooted inter-Korean summit next month.        观察人士认为,这些发展是文在寅循序渐进的外交斡旋促成的;尤其是,他坚持无核化要在讨论范围内,然后才同意下月举行朝韩峰会的提议。
        That apparent concession by Pyongyang was essential to ensuring the support and inclusion of Washington in future dialogue.        朝鲜貌似作出了让步,这一点很重要,有利于确保华盛顿支持和加入未来的对话。
        “[Moon] was wise not to immediately accept Pyongyang’s offer of an inter-Korean summit, instead talking about the right atmosphere and conditions. This was done mindful of the US stance on the talks,” says Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.        “(文在寅)没有立即接受朝方关于举行朝韩峰会的提议,而是讨论起举行峰会所需的正确气氛和条件,这是明智之举。这是考虑到美国在对话上的立场而做出的举动,”首尔朝鲜研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)的杨武仁教授(Yang Moo-jin)说。
        “It is impressive progress that he has managed to extend inter-Korean talks to US-North Korea talks,” he adds.        “他设法把朝韩对话扩大为美朝对话,这是一个了不起的进展,”他补充道。
        Seoul’s subtle diplomacy was also evident from the decision to move the inter-Korean summit between Mr Kim and Mr Moon from Pyongyang to the demilitarised zone between the two countries.        双方决定将金正恩和文在寅的峰会举行地点从平壤转到两国之间的非军事区,凸显出首尔巧妙外交手段的作用。
        This effectively denies Mr Kim the financial and propaganda spoils of hosting a high-profile summit within his borders.        这可有效防止金正恩获得在朝鲜国境内举行这场举世瞩目的峰会将带来的金钱利益和宣传效果。
        “Holding the summit at the DMZ is also a smart move because it paves the way for making it a regular event. It is not likely to end up being a one-time thing,” says Prof Yang.        “在朝韩之间非军事区举行峰会也是聪明的一步,因为这为峰会走向常态化铺平了道路。峰会不太可能只是举行一次就作罢,”杨武仁教授说。
        If held as planned in April, it would only be the third time the leaders of North and South Korea will have met.        如果这次峰会照计划在4月举行,那将是朝韩领导人的第三次会面。
        The public also appears to be backing the South Korea’s president efforts. After a wobble during the Olympics, his approval ratings have rebounded as dialogue with Pyongyang has progressed. A recent poll gave him a 66.5 per cent approval rating.        公众似乎也支持韩国总统的努力。文在寅的支持率在冬奥会期间有所摇摆,但随着朝韩对话取得进展,他的支持率又回升了。最近的一次民意调查中,文在寅的支持率为66.5%。
        Lee Jung-hyun, a finance professional in Seoul, says he is happy to see South Korea take a leading role in solving the North Korean situation.        首尔的金融专业人士Lee Jung-hyun说,他很高兴地看到韩国在应对朝鲜局势上发挥主导作用。
        “I still have lingering doubts about the North’s sincerity about denuclearisation. But at least we are starting to see positive signals. I can give that credit to President Moon Jae-in,” he says.        “我依然对朝鲜无核化的诚意心存疑虑。但至少我们开始看到积极的信号。我认为这归功于文在寅总统,”他说。
        But analysts warn the next steps are likely to prove more treacherous.        但分析人士警告,接下来的局势可能更加变幻莫测。
        “From now on, things will be driven by the US, and Washington may not do things that Mr Moon likes,” says Mr Chung.        “从现在开始,事情将由美国推动,而华盛顿的所作所为可能不会如文在寅所愿,”韩国统一研究院研究员Chung Sung-yoon说。
        “The most important thing to watch is how he will handle South Korea’s relations with the US and North Korea when there is no visible progress in the denuclearisation front.”        “最重要的有待观察的事情是,如果无核化方面未能取得明显进展,他将如何处理韩国与美国和与朝鲜的关系。”
        Additional reporting by Kang Buseong        Kang Buseong补充报道
                
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