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美朝峰会:你需要知道的五件事
Trump-Kim summit: five things to know

来源:FT中文网    2018-03-12 07:26



        Donald Trump has agreed to a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks, a breakthrough in relations between two nations that just months ago appeared on the brink of conflict.        唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)已同意在未来几周与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)会晤,这是两国关系的一个突破。仅仅几个月前,两国关系还处于冲突的边缘。
        Why a summit is a big deal        美朝峰会为何是一件大事?
        No US president has ever met a leader of North Korea. As commander-in-chief, Mr Trump will be able to talk directly to Mr Kim, potentially building trust and cutting out the painstaking process of shuttling messages between emissaries. North Korea has put on the table the prospect of abandoning its nuclear programme — a top foreign policy objective for Mr Trump.        历史上还没有美国总统与朝鲜领导人会晤的先例。作为总司令,特朗普将能够直接与金正恩进行对话,这可能会建立信任,省掉通过使者传递信息的繁琐过程。朝鲜已经把放弃核武计划的可能性(这是特朗普的首要外交政策目标)放到桌面上。
        Potential pitfalls        潜在陷阱是什么?
        North Korea has a long history of offering to denuclearise only to renege on its promises after dragging out arduous negotiations. As part of its recent overtures to Seoul and Washington, the Kim regime has agreed to stop testing its long-range missiles. But it is likely that North Korean scientists and technicians are still working on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme. From the US perspective, a May summit leaves little time to prepare and Washington is already missing a host of top diplomats and specialists who work on North Korea.        先是表态要弃核、结果在磨磨蹭蹭地艰难谈判之后背弃承诺——朝鲜在这方面有很长的历史。作为最近向首尔和华盛顿伸出橄榄枝的一部分,金氏政权同意暂停试射远程导弹。但朝鲜科学家和技术人员很可能仍在推进平壤的核武计划。从美国的视角看,没有多少时间为5月峰会做准备,华盛顿已经失去了一大批研究朝鲜问题的高级外交官和专家。
        How we got here        美朝峰会是怎么提出的?
        While news of the summit comes has surprised many observers, the event was months in the making. For the past year, Washington has exerted unprecedented pressure on the Kim regime through sanctions and diplomatic isolation. These punitive measures were likely to have coaxed Mr Kim to the table. The process of diplomacy, meanwhile, has been spearheaded by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who used last month’s Winter Olympics to extend an olive branch to Pyongyang. The offer of the summit was extended to Mr Trump via a South Korean envoy, who visited Mr Kim earlier in the week.        尽管峰会的消息让许多观察人士感到意外,但它已经酝酿了数月时间。在过去一年里,华盛顿通过制裁和外交孤立对金氏政权施加了前所未有的压力。这些惩罚性措施很可能说服金正恩回到谈判桌前。与此同时,韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)开启了外交进程,他利用上月的冬奥会将橄榄枝递给平壤。峰会提议是通过最近访问金正恩的韩国特使团转达给特朗普的。
        Who stands to gain        谁会受益?
        On the surface, it is a win-win situation for all leaders. Mr Trump demonstrates that his signature foreign policy initiative is making headway. Mr Kim garners domestic prestige and the international spotlight from meeting a US president for the first time. Mr Moon reaps the rewards of successful diplomacy and the benefits of reduced tension on the Korean peninsula, which months ago appeared close to conflict. Trouble may arise later, however, if talks begin to flounder.        表面看来,这对所有领导人来说是共赢的。特朗普得以展示他的标志性外交政策举措取得进展。金正恩因首次与美国总统会晤而在国内获得声望,并成为国际社会关注的焦点。文在寅获得成功外交的回报和朝鲜半岛紧张局势缓和所带来的益处——几个月前朝鲜半岛似乎濒临冲突。然而,如果谈判不顺利,麻烦可能在稍后出现。
        Likelihood of success        成功的几率有多大?
        For Mr Kim, simply hosting the meeting will count as a success as it will generate prestige and legitimacy for the reclusive regime. For the US leader, the equation is more complex. Experts are sceptical that Pyongyang will genuinely give up its nuclear programme, which it views as a deterrent to US aggression. The regime may promise to do so but history shows it has a poor record of upholding such pledges. In 1994 it signed the Agreed Framework to freeze its plutonium weapons programme in exchange for aid. The deal collapsed in 2002 amid US intelligence revelations that the regime was secretly pursuing a uranium enrichment programme. In 2005 Pyongyang committed to de-nuclearisation following multilateral talks; it tested its first nuclear device the very next year.        对于金正恩来说,仅仅迎接并会晤美国总统就算得上成功,因为它将给这个与世隔绝的政权带来威望和合法性。对于美国领导人来说,盘算更为复杂。专家们对平壤是否会真正放弃核武计划持怀疑态度——朝鲜认为拥有核武器会威慑美国,使其不敢侵略自己。平壤政权可能承诺放弃核武,但历史表明,它在信守此类承诺方面的记录不佳。1994年,它签署了冻结其钚武器计划的《框架协议》(Agreed Framework)以换取援助。2002年,美国情报部门发现朝鲜政权秘密推进铀浓缩计划,协议因此告吹。2005年,平壤在多边会谈后承诺弃核,却在第二年就进行了首次核试验。
                
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