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FT社评:美朝峰会给了外交一个机会
Leader: A US-North Korea summit gives diplomacy a chance

来源:FT中文网    2018-03-12 12:30



        The risk of a war between North Korea and the US has been mounting steadily for the past year. So the sudden announcement that the leaders of the two countries are to meet for talks is very welcome. Of course, there are big risks attached to a summit meeting between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump. Both leaders are volatile and the nuclear crisis is inherently intractable. There is plenty that can go wrong. But the alternatives to this meeting were hardly attractive.        过去一年,朝鲜与美国之间爆发战争的风险一直在稳步上升。这个时候突然传出两国领导人要举行会谈的消息是非常受欢迎的。当然,金正恩(Kim Jong Un)与唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的峰会将带有巨大风险。两位领导人都很善变,而且核危机本质上很难应对。出岔子的可能性非常大。但会谈之外的其他方案都没有吸引力。
        North Korea’s nuclear programme has been developing rapidly. The Kim Jong Un regime is getting ever closer to its goal of developing a nuclear-tipped missile that could strike the US. President Trump has vowed this will never happen and threatened “fire and fury” in response to any nuclear provocations. The risks of armed — possibly even nuclear — conflict on the Korean peninsula have been rising inexorably.        朝鲜一直在快速推进核计划,其目标是研发一款可以打到美国本土的可携带核弹头的导弹,而金正恩政权离实现这个目标越来越近。特朗普总统誓言绝不让这种情况发生,并威胁要用“火与怒”回应任何核挑衅行为。朝鲜半岛爆发武装冲突——甚至核冲突——的风险一直在不可阻挡地攀升。
        Many diplomats have pointed out that, traditionally, a leaders’ summit comes at the end of a negotiation process, rather than the beginning. To allow the two heads of state to meet, without painstaking preparation and a draft text for them to agree, undoubtedly raises the stakes. But the North Korean nuclear programme has been progressing so rapidly that time was running out for traditional diplomacy. It is also likely that South Korea has done at least some of the preparatory work for a possible agreement on the de-nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.        许多外交官指出,传统上,领导人峰会应该在谈判过程结束后、而非开始时举行。既未经过精心的准备也没有一份可供签署的协议草案就举行元首会晤,无疑会增加风险。但朝鲜核计划进展飞快,已经没有时间进行传统外交了。还有,韩国也许至少已为朝鲜半岛无核化可能达成的协议做了一些准备工作。
        Nonetheless, there should be no doubt that a Kim-Trump summit is a risky endeavour. There is little indication that North Korea is prepared to give up its nuclear or missile programmes. Mr Kim evidently believes that his ultimate insurance policy is the possession of nuclear weapons. The grisly fates of Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammer Gaddafi of Libya — leaders who never crossed the nuclear threshold — lends some force to this line of thinking. Even if the Kim regime were to agree to freeze or dismantle its nuclear programme, North Korea is notorious for violating international agreements. To guard against that possibility, any agreement would require intrusive outside verification — something the isolated and paranoid North Koreans are highly unlikely to accept.        尽管如此,“金特峰会”毫无疑问充满着风险。几乎没有迹象表明朝鲜准备放弃其核武或导弹计划。金正恩显然认为,其万全之策就是拥有核武器。那些未跨过核门槛的领导人——伊拉克的萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)和利比亚的穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的悲惨命运,为这一想法提供了佐证。即便金正恩政权同意冻结或废除其核计划,不要忘了朝鲜在违反国际协议方面可是臭名昭著。为了防止出现这种可能性,任何协议都需要来自外界的介入性核查——这是与世隔绝且偏执的朝鲜人极不可能接受的。
        The US and South Korea also face difficult choices. The North Koreans may propose that US troops should withdraw from the Korean peninsula, in return for de-nuclearisation and a permanent peace treaty to replace the armistice that ended the Korean war in the 1950s. South Korea would then have to decide whether it is prepared to face its well-armed totalitarian neighbour, without the protection of American troops or the US nuclear umbrella. Mr Trump, who has often complained of the cost of providing protection for US allies, might be tempted by troop withdrawal. But a US pullout from Korea would mark a fundamental strategic shift in east Asia, at a time when China is becoming more assertive.        美国和韩国也面临艰难抉择。朝鲜可能提议美国军队应该撤出朝鲜半岛,以换取无核化和一份永久和平条约,取代上世纪50年代结束朝鲜战争的停战协定。届时,韩国将不得不决定,在没有美军保护或美国核保护伞的情况下,它是否已准备好面对全副武装的极权主义邻国。特朗普经常抱怨为美国盟友提供保护的巨大成本,撤军对他或许具有诱惑力。但在中国变得愈发自信之际,美国撤出朝鲜半岛将标志着其东亚战略的根本转变。
        The prospect of a Kim-Trump summit also raises vital questions for Beijing. The Chinese government will be relieved if the threat of war on the Korean peninsula recedes. But it is likely to be uncomfortable that a major security crisis — right on China’s border — is being discussed without direct participation from Beijing.        “金特峰会”的前景也让北京方面面临重要问题。如果朝鲜半岛的战争威胁消退,中国政府将松一口气。但是,一场重大安全危机——这场危机倘若爆发,就在中国边境另一侧——在没有中国直接参与的情况下得到讨论,这种局面可能让人不舒服。
        All sides to the dispute, those directly involved in talks, and those watching nervously from the sidelines, will be aware that this is a high-stakes bet. If the talks go wrong, or if an agreement is made and then reneged on by North Korea, the chances of war could actually increase. But after a year of threats and missile tests, it is still good to see diplomacy being given a chance.        这场争端的各方,包括直接参与谈判的国家以及紧张旁观的国家,都会明白这是一场高风险的赌博。如果谈判失败,或者虽然达成了协议但随后被朝鲜背弃,爆发战争的可能性实际上可能会增加。但在经过一年的威胁和导弹试射后,能看到美朝为以外交途径解决问题提供了一个机会仍然是件好事。
                
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