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和特朗普谈贸易?得先押注到底谁说了算
Within Trump’s Trade Factions, Nations Look for a Friendly Face

来源:纽约时报    2018-06-04 04:05



        SHANGHAI — As the United States challenges Europe, China, Canada, Mexico and much of the rest of the world over trade, deep factionalism within the Trump administration has flummoxed both American allies and rivals. The White House strikes a conciliatory tone one day and a militant one the next, often depending on which Trump advisers are in favor.        上海——当美国在贸易问题上向欧洲、中国、加拿大、墨西哥和其他很多国家和地区发起挑战时,特朗普政府内部根深蒂固的派系斗争让美国的盟友和对手都感到困惑。白宫可能头一天语气温和,第二天就变得好战,这通常取决于特朗普的哪些顾问得到了支持。
        Increasingly, leaders in other countries are asking who is calling the shots: the globalists, the nationalists, the trade hawks or someone else?
        其他国家的领导人越来越频繁的发问,到底谁说了算:是全球主义者、民族主义者、贸易鹰派还是别的什么人?
        To a degree, the mixed messages reflect the negotiating tactics of a president who likes to keep the other side off balance. Even while his team was in Beijing this weekend, President Trump, in a tweet, suggested a confrontational approach, calling out China over the trade imbalance. The two sides made little progress in discussions.        在一定程度上,这些相互矛盾的信息反映了一个喜欢让对方不知所措的总统的谈判策略。周末,在自己的团队还在北京的情况下,特朗普总统在一条推文中建议采取强硬手段,并就贸易失衡公开指责中国。双方的磋商几乎未取得进展。
        The inconsistency has spurred international leaders to court Trump officials who they think will offer a sympathetic ear, rather than the White House as a whole — a divide-and-conquer approach that could make trade deals harder to strike. It has also eroded the belief among many leaders that the Trump administration will keep its word.        这种矛盾促使国际领导人讨好特朗普政府内部他们认为会支持自己的官员,而不是整个白宫。这种各个击破的方式可能会加大达成贸易协议的难度,也让很多领导人担心特朗普政府能不能信守承诺。
        “We have to believe that at some point their common sense will prevail,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said in a tweet, referring to the American public, after the Trump administration’s latest move on tariffs. “But we see no sign of that in this action today by the U.S. administration.”        “我们只能相信到了某个时候他们的常理能占上风,”在特朗普政府宣布最新的关税举措后,加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)在一条推文中说。他说的“他们”指的是是美国公众。“但在美国政府今天的行动中,我们没有看到这种迹象。”
        Even the Chinese government, which typically couches its most aggressive statements in oblique diplomatic terms, is increasingly talking about the administration with the rhetorical equivalent of an eye roll.        就连往往会用婉转的外交术语表达强硬态度的中国政府,也越来越多地用相当于翻白眼的修辞来谈论特朗普政府。
        “In international relations, every time you change your face and turn your back is another loss and squandering of your country’s credibility,” Hua Chunying, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a briefing in Beijing on Wednesday.        “在国际关系中,每一次变脸和出尔反尔都是对自己国家信誉的又一次损耗和挥霍,”中国外交部发言人华春莹周三在北京的一场例行记者会上说。
        Just in the past week, American trading partners have grappled with a new wave of aggressive moves. On Thursday, in the decision that prompted Mr. Trudeau’s tweet, the Trump administration said it would not exempt Canada, Mexico or the European Union from its new steel and aluminum tariffs, after postponing the move twice.        就在过去的一周,美国的贸易伙伴都在竭力应对新一轮的激进举措。周四,特朗普政府称不会免除加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟的钢铝关税。正是这一决定促使特鲁多发布了前述推文。此前,特朗普政府曾两度推迟这项举措。
        The Trump administration has also said it would move ahead with tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese-made goods. A week before, a senior official had suggested the tariffs would be suspended. American officials also walked back the possibility that Mr. Trump would lift crippling trade limits placed on ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications company, for violating American trade restrictions on North Korea and Iran.        特朗普政府还表示将继续对500亿美元(约合3200亿元人民币)的中国商品征收关税。一周前,一名高官曾表示将暂停征收关税。美国官员还否认了特朗普会取消对中兴公司的贸易限制的可能性,这家中国电信公司因违反美国对朝鲜和伊朗的贸易限制,遭到美国的严格限制。
        Talks between the two countries in Beijing over the weekend, which were led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, ended in an impasse. The Chinese refused to commit to buying more American goods, without the United States agreeing to back away from imposing further tariffs on Chinese exports.        两国周末在北京举行的谈判以僵局告终。商谈由美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)领导。在美方没有同意放弃对中国出口商品征收更多关税的情况下,中方拒绝承诺购买更多的美国商品。
        “If the United States introduces trade measures, including an increase of tariffs, all the economic and trade outcomes negotiated by the two parties will not take effect,” China said in a statement.        “如果美方出台包括加征关税在内的贸易制裁措施,双方谈判达成的所有经贸成果将不会生效,”中国在一份声明中说。
        Foreign negotiators are now seeking friendly faces within the White House in hopes that those people’s arguments end up carrying the day.        现在,外国的谈判代表都在寻找白宫内部的友好面孔,希望这些人的观点最终能占上风。
        Chinese officials have aggressively tried to woo Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Mr. Ross, say people familiar with the Chinese negotiating position, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are sensitive. Both men have extensive business and Wall Street backgrounds, and Chinese officials believe they would be receptive to arguments that China’s big trade surplus with the United States stems largely from economic factors rather than unfair trade practices.        熟悉中方谈判立场的人士称,中方官员极力试图争取美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)和罗斯的支持。由于谈判的性质敏感,他们要求匿名。马努钦和罗斯两人都有广泛的商业和华尔街背景,中方官员认为,他们会接受中美巨额贸易顺差主要来自经济因素,而不是不公平贸易行为的观点。
        The Chinese officials have courted Mr. Mnuchin, Mr. Ross and their staffs with small group meetings and telephone conference calls, the people familiar with the Chinese position said. They have put less effort into reaching out to Robert E. Lighthizer, the administration’s top trade official, or Peter Navarro, a Trump adviser who co-wrote a book called “Death by China,” to the same degree. In essence, Chinese officials are wooing Trump administration officials they see as globalists while trying to isolate those they see as hard-liners.        熟悉中方立场的人士说,中方官员通过小组会议和电话会议,向马努钦、罗斯及其工作人员示好。在争取特朗普政府最高贸易官员罗伯特·E·莱特希泽(Robert E. Lighthizer)或特朗普的顾问、与人合著了《致命中国》(Death by China)一书的彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)时,中方就没那么上心了。从本质上来说,中国官员是在争取他们认为属于全球主义者的特朗普政府官员,同时试图孤立他们眼中的强硬派。
        China can justify that stance by pointing to rank. By diplomatic protocol, Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Ross are more senior, although neither runs an agency with direct responsibility for trade negotiations.        中国可能会用级别来解释这种态度。按照外交礼节,马努钦和罗斯的级别更高,但两人均不是某个直接负责贸易谈判的机构的负责人。
        The people familiar with Chinese economic policymaking say that Beijing officials became accustomed to addressing major trade and currency concerns through Treasury, which took a leading role on Chinese economic issues during the presidencies of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. But Mr. Trump has largely abandoned that framework, elevating Mr. Lighthizer and obscuring the question of who is running trade policy.        熟悉中国经济决策内幕的人士表示,北京的官员已经习惯于通过美国财政部解决主要的贸易和汇率问题。在贝拉克·奥巴马和乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)任总统期间,美国财政部在中国经济问题上发挥着主导作用。但特朗普基本上放弃了这个框架,提升了莱特希泽的地位,模糊了贸易政策主导者的问题。
        Conversely, European trade officials feel they have a friendlier audience in Mr. Lighthizer. They believe he has focused most of his attention on China, whose government is managing an ambitious project to build up sophisticated manufacturing and high-tech industries that could someday rival American, European and Japanese competitors. Officials in Europe believe that focus could make him more amenable to a deal to help form a united American-European front against China’s industrial ambitions.        相反,欧洲的贸易官员们认为,莱特希泽是一位更友好的倾听者。他们认为,他把大部分注意力集中在了中国身上。中国政府正在实施一项雄心勃勃的计划,努力建立先进的制造业和高科技产业,期望有朝一日可以与美国、欧洲和日本的竞争对手相匹敌。欧洲的官员们认为,莱特希泽的关注重点可能会促使他更愿意接受一项帮助建立美欧联合阵线、对抗中国产业野心的协议。
        European officials are frostier when it comes to Mr. Ross, and to Mr. Trump himself, according to a senior European diplomatic official who requested anonymity because the discussions are private. They see the two as narrowly focused on getting European countries to buy more American goods over the short haul, the official said — a strategy they perceive as aimed at giving Mr. Ross and Mr. Trump photo opportunities at American steel factories.        一位欧洲高级外交官表示,欧洲的官员们在谈起罗斯和特朗普本人时态度较冷淡。由于是私下里的谈话,这位外交官要求匿名。他还表示,欧洲的官员们认为,罗斯和特朗普狭隘地专注于让欧洲国家在短期内购买更多的美国商品,他们认为,他们俩的这项战略是为了赢得美国钢铁企业的好感。
        European negotiators regard that stance as an unsophisticated, zero-sum view of trade, the official said, in which the country that sells more goods to its partner is the winner — an outlook that makes a trade deal difficult to achieve.        这位外交官表示,欧洲的谈判代表认为这种立场是幼稚的零和贸易观。这种观点认为,向贸易伙伴销售更多商品的国家是赢家,因此很难达成贸易协议。
        Even when foreign trade officials wring deals out of their relationships with individual members of the administration, the agreements can quickly fall apart, as China has found to its frustration.        就算某些对外贸易官员凭借自己与美国政府个别成员的关系达成了协议,也可能很快土崩瓦解,和中国面临的沮丧境况没什么不同。
        Last year, Chinese officials presented a plan to Mr. Ross under which it would cut its voluminous steel capacity in return for avoiding proposed tariffs. Mr. Ross supported it, but it did not satisfy Mr. Trump, and the administration ended up imposing tariffs on steel imports from many countries, including China.        去年,中国官员向罗斯提出了一项计划,表示中国愿意削减庞大的钢铁产能,以换取美国取消关税提案。罗斯对该计划表示支持,但特朗普不满意,美国政府最终向从许多国家进口的钢铁征收关税,包括中国。
        Then, during Mr. Trump’s visit to China in November, Mr. Ross orchestrated deals that administration officials claimed were worth $250 billion, though their true economic value was far less. The peace that effort bought didn’t last. The United States has since ramped up its criticism of China’s industrial ambitions and threatened to impose tariffs on more than $150 billion in Chinese goods.        然后,在去年11月特朗普访问中国期间,罗斯策划了一些协议,美国政府官员称这些协议价值2500亿美元,不过它们的真实经济价值要低得多。这些努力换来的和平并没有维持多久。后来,美国加大了对中国产业野心的批评,威胁要对1500多亿美元的中国商品征收关税。
        China’s efforts to court Mr. Mnuchin have also led to frustration, despite initial signs that they would pay off.        中国讨好马努钦的努力也遭遇了挫折,尽管最初有迹象表明,这些努力会获得回报。
        Mr. Mnuchin has suggested publicly that Chinese moves to open up the country’s car market and financial services to international competition could be enough to allay the Trump administration’s trade concerns. Two weeks ago, Mr. Mnuchin said the Trump administration was “putting the trade war on hold.” On the thorny issue of ZTE, Mr. Mnuchin said that the United States hadn’t meant to “put ZTE out of business.”        马努钦曾公开表示,中国向国际竞争者开放汽车市场和金融服务领域的举措,可能足以缓解特朗普政府的贸易担忧。两周前,马努钦表示,特朗普政府正在“搁置贸易战”。在棘手的中兴通讯问题上,马努钦表示,美国无意“让中兴破产”。
        Then last week, following intensifying pressure from Congress, the Trump administration said it would push ahead with tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods and signaled a potentially tougher stance on ZTE. Mr. Navarro also publicly contradicted Mr. Mnuchin’s comments about suspending the trade war.        上周,在国会加大压力后,特朗普政府表示,它将推进对500亿美元的中国商品征税,并表示可能对中兴采取更强硬的立场。纳瓦罗还公开反驳了马努钦关于暂停贸易战的言论。
        The shifts appear to have only stiffened the resolve of American trading partners. After the United States imposed tariffs, Canada and Europe responded quickly on Thursday with their own threats of retaliation. Chinese officials, meanwhile, are still vowing to go through with their planned industrial upgrade, called Made in China 2025, which they see as essential to the country’s security and well-being.        这些转变似乎反倒坚定了美国贸易伙伴们的决心。在美国征收关税后,加拿大和欧洲周四迅速做出了回应,威胁要进行报复。与此同时,中国官员仍在誓言实施自己计划的名为“中国制造2025”的产业升级,他们认为它对该国的安全和福祉至关重要。
        In China, in public discussions and on social media, Mr. Trump’s shifts often play as a sign of instability. Chinese officials, perhaps more than their counterparts elsewhere, strive to strike a consistent message to give the world the impression of a unified government.        在中国的公开讨论和社交媒体中,特朗普的转变常常被视为不稳定的迹象。而中国官员可能比其他任何国家的官员都更努力地发出一致的信息,给世界留下中国政府十分统一的印象。
        “In Chinese culture, when a political leader says something, you mean something,” said Gary Liu, the president of the China Financial Reform Institute, a research group in Shanghai. “China is very upset about the changing attitudes.”        “在中国文化中,一个政治领导人说什么,那就是什么,”上海研究机构中国金融改革研究院的院长刘胜军说。“这种变换不定的态度让中国很不高兴。”
                
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