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尼克松见毛泽东之前记了笔记,特朗普呢?
Nixon Did It. Why Not Trump? Crib Notes for a Presidential Summit

来源:纽约时报    2018-06-12 10:30



        SINGAPORE — In 1972, while stopping in Hawaii en route to Beijing, President Nixon jotted a few notes to himself on a yellow pad ahead of his historic encounter with Mao Zedong, the revolutionary founder of the People’s Republic of China.        新加坡——1972年,尼克松总统在前往北京的途中在夏威夷短暂停留时,在一个黄色便笺本上草草记下了一些提醒自己的东西,很快他将与创建中华人民共和国的革命领袖毛泽东举行历史性的会面。
        Preparing for a meeting that would change the course of the Cold War, Nixon distilled history, politics and strategy into a handful of bullet points: What did China want? What did the United States want? What did they both want?
        为了给一次会改变冷战进程的会面做准备,尼克松把历史、政治和战略提炼为几个要点:中国想要什么?美国想要什么?两国都想要什么?
        President Trump has said he does not need to prepare for his summit meeting with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader. But if Mr. Trump or an adviser were to make a similar set of notes, what might they say?        特朗普总统已表示,他不需要为与朝鲜领导人金正恩的峰会做准备。但假设特朗普或他的某个顾问准备了一份类似笔记的话,上面会写些什么呢?
        ‘What They Want’
        ‘他们想要的’
        Nixon answered this question for China in three concise answers: Build up their world credentials. Taiwan. Get the U.S. out of Asia.        尼克松用三个简洁的答案替中国回答了这个问题:建立他们走上世界舞台的资格。台湾。让美国离开亚洲。
        Mr. Trump might also reduce North Korea’s concerns to three points:        特朗普或许也可以把朝鲜的担忧归纳为三点:
        1. Security        1. 安全
        Mr. Kim’s top priority is the security of his nation and the survival of the totalitarian regime that he inherited from his father and grandfather. He has said this is why he needs a nuclear arsenal — to deter the United States from attacking North Korea and attempting to overthrow him, as some in Washington have advocated.        金正恩的首要任务是国家安全,以及他从父亲和祖父那里继承下来的极权主义政权的生存。他曾说,那就是他为什么需要核武库的原因——让美国不敢打朝鲜、试图推翻他,正如华盛顿的一些人所主张的那样。
        But he has also committed to denuclearization, as long as the North can be guaranteed of its security. That is one reason a formal peace treaty ending the Korean War is under discussion. It could include assurances from both China and the United States and might lead eventually to the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea.        但他也承诺要实现无核化,条件是朝鲜的安全能得到保障。这就是正在讨论结束朝鲜战争的正式和平条约的原因之一。和平条约可能将中国和美国的保证包括进来,并可能最终导致美国从韩国撤走驻军。
        2. Respect        2. 尊重
        If Mao was interested in China’s “world credentials,” Mr. Kim may be more interested in building up his reputation at home.        如果说毛泽东是对中国的“世界舞台资格”感兴趣的话,金正恩也许对在国内树立自己的声誉更感兴趣。
        Being treated as an equal by Mr. Trump confers prestige on Mr. Kim that he can use to strengthen his grip on power.        得到特朗普的平等对待,会给金正恩带来声望,他可以借此来加强自己对权力的掌握。
        Recognition as a nuclear state and acceptance in the international community would also bolster his position and allow him to boast of an achievement that eluded his father and grandfather. It is also a reason he may be reluctant to give up the weapons.        作为一个有核国家得到承认、被国际社会接受也会加强金正恩的地位,让他能夸耀自己取得了父亲和祖父未能取得的成就。这也是他可能不愿放弃核武器的一个原因。
        3. Economic relief        3. 经济救援
        Mr. Kim has long called for the simultaneous pursuit of nuclear weapons and economic growth, but he abruptly announced in April that he was adopting a “new strategic line” that focuses on rebuilding the economy.        金正恩曾一直长期号召在发展核武器的同时追求经济增长,但今年4月他突然宣布,将采取以重建经济为重点的“新战略方针”。
        He has already allowed some market forces to take hold, but there is a limit to the progress North Korea can make while isolated by international sanctions.        虽然他已经允许一些市场力量发挥作用,但在被国际制裁孤立的情况下,朝鲜能够取得的进展有限。
        “This is our biggest point of leverage,” said Suzanne DiMaggio, a director and senior fellow at the New America research group who has been involved in unofficial talks with North Korea.        “这是我们最大的砝码,”苏珊娜·迪马乔(Suzanne DiMaggio)说,她是研究机构新美国(New America)的主任兼高级研究员。
        ‘What We Want’
        ‘我们想要的’
        Nixon’s wish list from China included both immediate and long-term items — help ending the Vietnam War, restraining the spread of communism in Asia and reducing “the threat of a confrontation by Chinese Super Power.”        尼克松想从中国得到的东西的一览表既包括了眼前的、也包括长远的——帮助结束越南战争,抑制共产主义在亚洲的蔓延,减少“与中国超级大国对抗的威胁”。
        Mr. Trump’s list for North Korea may be a similar combination of short- and long-term goals:        特朗普给朝鲜列出的清单也许是类似的短期和长期目标的组合:
        1. Denuclearization        1. 无核化
        This is the holy grail. It is critical to the balance of power in the region and global efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. But the vast scope of North Korea’s program — and the fact that it has already tested and built nuclear weapons — means it would be the most challenging case of nuclear disarmament in history.        这是最终目标。这对区域力量的平衡、以及防止核扩散的全球努力至关重要。但朝鲜核计划的巨大规模,以及朝鲜已经测试和制造了核武器的事实都意味着,这将是历史上最具挑战性的核裁军案例。
        Mr. Kim has committed to the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” but the phrase means different things in Pyongyang and Washington. The United States wants North Korea to give up its weapons, nuclear material and production facilities on an accelerated timeline under the eye of inspectors, but the North favors a more protracted process, with concessions by the United States up front.        虽然金正恩一直致力于实现“朝鲜半岛无核化”,但无核化这个词在平壤和华盛顿有不同的意思。美国希望朝鲜在核查人员的监督下,以越来越短的时间间隔完成放弃核武器、核材料和生产设施的步骤,但朝鲜倾向于一个更旷日持久的过程,要美国先做出让步。
        2. Stability        2. 稳定
        North Korea rattled the region last year with its sixth underground nuclear explosion — of a possible hydrogen bomb — and 24 missile tests, including of a new intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting all of the United States. It also has a history of provocative military actions, including the shelling of a South Korean island and the suspected sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in 2010.        朝鲜去年制造区域紧张局势,进行了第六次地下核爆炸(可能是氢弹),并进行了24次导弹试验,其中包括一枚能够打击美国所有地方的新型洲际弹道导弹。朝鲜也有采取挑衅性军事行动的历史,包括炮击一个韩国岛屿、以及涉嫌在2010年击沉了一艘韩国军舰。
        But Mr. Kim said in April that the North no longer needed to test nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. If Mr. Trump persuades him to extend the moratorium, that would ease tensions while also slowing the development of his arsenal.        但金正恩今年4月表示,朝鲜不再需要测试核武器或远程导弹。如果特朗普说服金正恩延长暂停令的话,那将会缓解紧张局势,同时也会延缓朝鲜的武器发展。
        3. Reduce threat to allies        3. 减少对盟友的威胁
        Mr. Trump has shown a disregard for America’s traditional alliances around the world, but the United States is bound by treaty to defend both South Korea and Japan. Reducing the threat posed by North Korea would make it less likely for America to be drawn into a conflict in Asia.        虽然特朗普漠视美国在世界各地的传统盟友,但美国有保护韩国和日本的条约义务。减少朝鲜制造的威胁将会让美国卷入亚洲冲突的可能性降低。
        Japan in particular is worried that even if North Korea gives up its nuclear arsenal and its ICBMs, it would still have shorter-range missiles as well as chemical and biological weapons. “You can say you’ve protected Americans,” said Daniel Sneider, a scholar at Stanford University. “Of course, you’ve left Japanese and Koreans and 80,000 American troops plus their dependents at risk.”        日本尤其担心的是,即使朝鲜放弃其核武库和洲际弹道导弹,它仍将拥有短程导弹、以及化学和生物武器。“你可以说你保护了美国人,”斯坦福大学学者丹尼尔·斯奈德(Daniel Sneider)说。“那当然,但你让日本人、韩国人、8万名美军士兵以及家属处于危险之中。”
        ‘What We Both Want’
        ‘我们都想要的’
        This is where there is room for a deal to emerge. Nixon noted that China and the United States both wanted to reduce the risk of a conflict, and that both favored a more stable Asia and a restraint on the Soviet Union.        这是能做成交易的空间。尼克松注意到,中国和美国都希望减少发生冲突的风险,都赞成有一个更稳定的亚洲,都想限制苏联的扩张。
        Mr. Trump might find common ground with Mr. Kim in these areas:        特朗普可能会在下列领域与金正恩找到共同点:
        1. A new relationship        1. 一种新关系
        Both men have expressed frustration at the lack of progress in previous negotiations and may be interested in a game-changing breakthrough that redefines the relationship between the two nations.        他两人都对以前的谈判没有进展表示不满,他们可能对重新定义两国关系的一个改变游戏规则的突破感兴趣。
        “If you just look at it as, ‘Give up your stuff,’ that framework is why we’ve been banging our head against the wall for so long,” said John Delury, a North Korea scholar at Yonsei University in Seoul. “If we say we need to fundamentally change the relationship, then you have a framework where there can be real progress.”        “如果只从‘你要放弃你的东西’这个角度考虑问题,那种框架是为什么我们这么长时间以来一直毫无进展的原因,”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的朝鲜问题学者鲁乐汉(John Delury)说,“如果我们说,我们需要从根本上改变两国关系,那就有了一个能够取得真正进展的框架。”
        2. Reduce danger of confrontation and conflict        2. 减少对抗和冲突的危险
        Mr. Trump threatened to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea last year, and a North Korean official warned of a “nuclear-to-nuclear showdown” just a few weeks ago.        特朗普去年曾威胁要向朝鲜发出“炮火与怒火”,就在几周前,一名朝鲜官员还做出了“核武器与核武器决战”的警告。
        But a war would mean devastating casualties, including of American troops in South Korea, and American cities would also be at risk of suffering a nuclear strike because of the North’s recent advances. For Mr. Kim, a war would almost certainly result in the end of his rule and the destruction of his country.        但战争将会意味着对包括驻韩美军在内的毁灭性伤亡,而且,由于朝鲜最近取得的进展,也意味着美国城市将会面临遭受核打击的风险。对金正恩来说,战争几乎肯定会导致他本人统治的终结和他的国家的毁灭。
        3. Make our countries — and our leadership — great again        3. 让我们的国家——以及我们的领导力——恢复伟大光荣
        Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim are both looking for political victories that will help them at home.        特朗普和金正恩都在寻找对自己在国内有帮助的政治胜利。
        “The imagery of Kim and Trump holding hands, embracing and declaring an end to the Korean War, is probably something they both individually want,” said Laura Rosenberger, a senior fellow and director of the Washington-based Alliance for Securing Democracy.        “金正恩和特朗普握手、拥抱,宣布朝鲜战争结束的画面,可能是他们各自都想要的东西,”劳拉·罗森伯格(Laura Rosenberger)说,她是总部位于华盛顿的保卫民主联盟(Alliance for Securing Democracy)高级研究员兼主管。
        4. More independence from China (?)        4. 更独立于中国(?)
        North Korea once enjoyed two sponsors, China and the Soviet Union. But China has been its main economic benefactor since the Soviet collapse, accounting for more than 90 percent of foreign trade. In recent years, Beijing has also helped keep the North afloat by blocking or resisting tighter sanctions against it.        朝鲜曾经有过两个资助者:中国和苏联。但自苏联解体以来,中国一直是朝鲜的主要经济援助国,朝鲜对外贸易的90%以上来自中国。近年来,北京还通过阻止或抵制对朝鲜实施更严厉的制裁,帮助朝鲜渡过难关。
        There is evidence, though, that suggests Mr. Kim is worried about growing too dependent on China.        不过,有证据表明,金正恩担心过于依赖中国。
        As the United States and China compete for influence in Asia, any shift by North Korea away from Beijing might work to America’s advantage.        随着美国和中国在亚洲争夺影响力,朝鲜的任何偏离北京的转移都可能对美国有利。
        Henry Kissinger and other advisers tried to give Nixon advice on how to treat Mao before their summit meeting. In James Mann’s book “About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton,” he reported that Nixon wrote:        亨利·基辛格和其他顾问试图在尼克松和毛泽东举行峰会前给尼克松出主意,告诉他如何对待毛泽东。孟捷慕(James Mann)在《脸面:从尼克松到克林顿的微妙中美关系史》(About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton)一书中纪录了尼克松写下的东西:
        Treat him (as Emperor)        把他(当皇帝)对待
        1. Don’t quarrell (sic)
2. Don’t praise him (too much)
3. Praise the people — art, ancient.
4. Praise poems.
5. Love of country.
        1. 不争吵
2. 不(过多地)称赞他
3. 称赞人民——艺术,古代的。
4. 称赞诗词。
5. 热爱国家。
        Mr. Trump might consider these suggestions:        特朗普可以考虑下列建议:
        1. Treat him as a statesman.
2. Emphasize mutual respect.
3. Listen.
4. Praise friendship with Dennis Rodman (and maybe suggest a burger in Singapore?).
5. Don’t talk about Libya.
        1. 把他当政治家对待。
2. 强调相互尊重。
3. 听听他的说法。
4. 赞扬与丹尼斯·罗德曼(Dennis Rodman)的友谊(也许建议在新加坡吃顿汉堡?)。
5. 不谈利比亚。
        Some have urged Mr. Trump to raise North Korea’s abysmal human rights record, which he highlighted during his State of the Union address in January. But few expect him to spend much if any time on the subject.        一些人已敦促特朗普提出朝鲜糟糕的人权纪录问题,他本人在今年1月的国情咨文里也强调了这点。但几乎没有几个人认为他会在这个问题上花太多时间。
                
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