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为什么美国无法阻止“中国制造2025”走向成功
Why Made in China 2025 Will Succeed, Despite Trump

来源:纽约时报    2018-07-05 02:12



        China will succeed in building a powerful technology industry that will rival the United States, even if President Trump starts a trade war to stop it. The reason can be found on the fourth floor of a nondescript factory in a city once famous for cheap manufacturing and prostitution.
        即使特朗普总统用发动贸易战来阻止,中国也将成功建起一个与美国相匹敌的强大技术产业。其中的原因,可以在一个曾以廉价制造业和卖淫闻名的城市中一座普通工厂的四楼找到。
        This factory floor, in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan, once employed what one employee called a “magnificent sea of people.” Rising labor costs and a new generation with little interest in toiling in factories forced a new tack. Now the sea of people is being replaced by a whirring array of boxy machines, each performing work it used to take 15 people 26 steps to finish.        在这个位于中国南方城市东莞的工厂车间里,用一位员工的话说,曾经是“一片壮观的人海”。劳动力成本的上升、以及对在工厂里辛苦工作毫无兴趣的新一代人,正在迫使工厂采取新策略。如今,人海正在被一排排方头方脑的机器取代,每一台机器干的活过去需要15个人用26个步骤才能完成。
        The factory suggests that Beijing’s vision of Made in China 2025 — the ambitious state-driven plan to retool China’s industries to compete in areas like automation, microchips and self-driving cars — is not being pushed just by the Communist Party’s top leaders. Instead, the drive is also coming from the bottom up: from the businesses and cities across China that know they must modernize or perish.        这家工厂表明,北京的《中国制造2025》愿景的推动者不只是中国共产党的高层领导人,这个雄心勃勃的政府计划旨在更新如自动化、微芯片和自动驾驶汽车等工业领域,确立中国在其中的竞争力。推动这项计划的力量也来自基层,来自中国各地那些知道不现代化就会灭亡的企业和城市。
        The Trump administration is not wrong to confront Beijing over Made in China 2025. China’s top-down approach gives its companies unfair advantages and could continue to roil global trade relations long after Mr. Trump retires to Mar-a-Lago.        特朗普政府在《中国制造2025》问题上与北京对峙并没有错。中国自上而下的做法给予中国企业不公平的优势,这种做法可能会在特朗普卸任后的很长一段时间里继续扰乱全球贸易关系。
        But Made in China 2025 is also being propelled by businesses like Dongguan Mentech Optical & Magnetic Company, the owner of the factory, which are worried about labor costs and their own futures. It comes from local governments looking for ways to stay relevant. It comes from a growing network of private-sector entrepreneurs, academics and local politicians who are increasingly working together to overhaul China’s factories and its future. Other cities — Suzhou, Wenzhou, Xuzhou and the industrial areas around Shanghai are just a few examples — have also drummed up their own automation plans.        但是,《中国制造2025》的推动力也来自东莞铭普光磁股份有限公司这样的企业,这些企业的老板担心劳动力成本上升和自己的未来。来自想方设法保住自己的价值的地方政府。来自私营企业家、学者和地方政客越来越多的互动,他们正在为改革中国工厂和中国未来而日益加强合作。其他城市——比如苏州、温州、徐州和上海周边的工业区——也在制定自己的自动化方案。
        The modernization may not happen in 2025. In fact, it may be long after that. But China will get there, mostly because it has to.        这些现代化可能不会在2025年实现。实际的实现可能需要2025年后的很长时间。但中国将实现这一目标,主要是因为它必须这么做。
        “If Made in China 2025 were a car, the engine has started and it’s definitely moving along,” said Zhang Guojun, director of Guangdong Intelligent Robotics Institute in Dongguan, one of several city-supported local research centers helping the factories upgrade. The city was automating well before Made in China 2025 came out in 2015, he said, “but the policy provided us a clear direction.”        “如果中国制造2025是一辆车,车子已经发动了,而且肯定是在移动,”张国军说,他是位于东莞的广东省智能机器人研究院的院长,该院是当地政府支持的、帮助工厂升级换代的地方研究所之一。他说,早在《中国制造2025》在2015年出台之前,东莞就已经在进行自动化改造,“但是这个政策给我们指出了明确的方向。”
        A city of eight million people in the Pearl River Delta, Dongguan long relied on making and exporting shoes, toys and electronic parts to the United States and Europe. In many ways, it looks like the factory-dominated China of popular imagination, with whole parts of the city pervaded by rows of rectangular factory buildings, one after another.        东莞是位于珠江三角洲的一座拥有800万人口的城市,其经济过去一直依靠制造鞋、玩具和电子零部件等向美国和欧洲出口的商品。在许多方面,东莞看起来很像大众想象中的、以制造业厂房为主的中国,城市中有大片区域是由一排排长方形厂房构成的。
        Then the 2008 financial crisis hit. Orders dried up. Dongguan became known as China’s capital of prostitution until a government crackdown cleaned it up.        后来,2008年的金融危机袭来。订单枯竭了。东莞成了中国著名的卖淫之都,直到政府发起一场打击行动进行清理。
        Beyond the financial crisis, China’s very prosperity threatened Dongguan’s future. The average worker’s income rose fourfold over the past decade. Fewer young people wanted to work on dull and stressful assembly lines, preferring service jobs — like waiting tables and delivering e-commerce packages — that let them interact with people or move around. Some factories moved to lower-cost countries or shut down for good.        除了金融危机,中国本身的繁荣也在威胁着东莞的未来。在过去的十年里,工人的平均收入增加了四倍。愿意从事枯燥的、压力很大的装配线工作的年轻人越来越少,更多的人想从事服务业工作——比如在饭馆当服务员、配送电子商务包裹等,这类工作让他们与人打交道,或能到处走动。一些工厂迁往成本更低的国家,一些永久停业了。
        Dongguan’s companies and government had to do something. They committed to modernizing.        东莞的企业和政府不得不做点什么。他们开始致力于现代化。
        Before Made in China 2025 became policy, Dongguan kicked off a “replacing humans with machines initiative” and funded it with about $30 million a year. It later channeled more money into other automation initiatives. Companies that could prove they had a worthy research project or were willing to invest in industrial robots, software or advanced machinery could win subsidies and tax breaks. The government picked up 10 percent to 20 percent of the tab. Smartphone, furniture, machinery and even cake companies won support, official documents show.        在《中国制造2025》成为国家政策之前,东莞启动了一项“机器换人计划”,并每年为该计划提供约合3000万美元的资金。后来,东莞还将更多的资金投入到其他自动化项目上去。那些能够证明自己的价值的研究项目,或愿意在工业机器人、软件或先进机械方面投资的企业,可获得补贴和减税等政府优惠。政府帮它们出了10%到20%的资金。官方文件显示,智能手机、家具、机械甚至制作蛋糕的公司都获得了这种支持。
        Mentech, the telecom equipment supplier, once had hundreds of workers winding, packaging and testing magnetic wires that were thinner than hair, all by hand. Even today, the company is desperate for workers. On the side of one factory building it lists the on-the-job benefits it offers: monthly wages with overtime of up to about $1,100, air-conditioned dormitories, free Wi-Fi and even a birthday present.        电信设备供应商铭普曾雇有数百名工人,他们缠绕、包装和测试比头发还细的磁线,全靠手工。即使在今天,这家公司仍然严重缺人手。公司在一栋厂房的外墙上列出了其提供的职工福利:每月最高可达约合1100美元的工资和加班费,宿舍有空调,免费Wi-Fi,甚至还有一份生日礼物。
        “Love your employees,” reads a banner, “and they will love you back 100 times.”        “爱你的员工吧,他会百倍地爱你,”一条横幅这样写道。
        But labor costs and a lack of hands were holding it back. During the Lunar New Year holiday, when most of China shuts down and goes home, some 500 Mentech executives, engineers and administrative staff had to work three-hour shifts after their normal workday to keep the factory running, said Zhang Xiaodong, a research and development manager.        但是,劳动力成本和缺乏人手正在阻碍着公司的发展。春节假期期间,中国大部分地区都放假回家了,但研发经理张晓东(音)说,铭普的大约500名管理、研究和行政人员不得不在正常工作日之后多工作三个小时,以维持工厂的运转。
        Mentech asked Mr. Zhang and others to figure out how to automate the factory. They spent two years working late into the night. Machines needed tweaking. Components needed to be redesigned so that machines could make them. Several projects failed.        铭普让张和其他人想办法将工厂自动化。他们花了两年的时间,每天工作到深夜。机器需要调试。为了用机器制造零件,这些零件需要重新设计。几次尝试都失败了。
        “Not every problem has a solution,” Mr. Zhang said. “We know that smart manufacturing is the future. But getting there isn’t easy.”        “并不是每个问题都有答案,”张说。“我们知道智能制造是未来的方向,但达到那个目标不容易。”
        Today, a factory floor that once needed over 300 workers now needs 100. More than half of the factory has been automated. The workers clustered around the machines will probably be replaced by machines themselves in a year or two.        如今,一个曾经需要300多名工人的厂房现在只需要100名工人。工厂的一半以上已经自动化。现在聚集在机器周围的工人可能会在一两年内也被机器取代。
        To help, the Dongguan government provided $1.5 million in subsidies. It is also luring start-ups and helping scientists open research centers to provide more know-how.        东莞政府为帮助公司自动化提供了约合150万美元的补贴。政府也在吸引初创企业,帮助科学家成立研究中心,从而为当地提供更多的实用知识。
        One start-up aiding Mentech is Dongguan Precision Intelligent Technology, which will provide a good chunk of the machinery the company needs to automate fully. Because the equipment will be Chinese-made, it will be cheaper than purchases of automation systems from Japan or the United States.        其中一个在协助铭普的初创公司是东莞普莱信智能技术有限公司,这家公司将为铭普的全面自动化提供大量的所需设备。因为这些设备将是中国制造的,所以比从日本或美国进口自动化系统要便宜。
        “The biggest trend in manufacturing is that automation is irreversible,” said Forest Tian, a former venture capitalist who founded Precision Intelligent Technology. “There will be huge demand for these machines.”        “制造业的最大趋势是不可逆转的自动化过程,”福里斯特·田(Forest Tian)说,他曾是风险投资家,现在是普莱信智能技术的创始人。“将对这些机器有巨大的需求。”
        The Dongguan government has taken other steps to ensure these centers of innovation help local manufacturers. For example, it formed about 30 research institutes in partnership with major Chinese universities. Once the initial money was given, Dongguan officials told the institutes they had to figure out how to make money on their own.        为确保这些创新中心能够帮助当地制造商,东莞政府还采取了其他的措施。比如,政府与中国主要大学合作成立了大约30家研究机构。东莞官员告诉这些机构,最初的资金到位之后,它们必须自己想办法找钱。
        The institutes teamed up with companies like Guangdong Janus Intelligent Group Corporation, a once-dowdy cellphone parts maker facing the familiar problem of high labor costs. Experts in the field became recurring visitors to its factory.        这些研究机构与像广东劲胜智能集团股份有限公司这样的企业合作,劲胜曾是一家不时髦的手机零部件制造商,如今面临着劳动力成本过高的问题。领域的专家们已经成了这些工厂的常客。
        “We call it 18 Buddhas coming to Dongguan,” said Huang He, the head of Janus’s smart-factory business, alluding to the followers of the original Buddha.        “我们称之为十八罗汉来东莞,”劲胜的智能工厂业务负责人黄鹤(音)说。
        At a Janus factory, rows of automated machine tools work with robotic arms and green conveyor belts in a space nearly the size of a football field. The robotic arms feed metal blocks to the machines, which then punch, grind and wash them. The housings for phones and tablets come out.        在一家与劲胜合作的工厂,几乎一个足球场大小的厂房里,一排排自动化机床的机械臂在绿色传送带上工作着。机器臂把未加工的金属块递给机器,机器对其进行冲压、研磨和清洗。手机和平板电脑的外壳就这样生产出来了。
        The factory requires 16 workers on a shift, instead of 103 before it was automated. The robotic arms are made in China.        这家工厂需要16名工人、而不是103名工人轮班工作。机器臂是中国制造的。
        No doubt many Chinese companies will fail in their effort to upgrade. Made in China 2025’s other goals, such as building up world-class microchip industries or self-driving cars, remain out of sight for now.        毫无疑问,许多中国企业的升级努力将会失败。《中国制造2025》的其他目标,比如建立世界级的微芯片产业或自动驾驶汽车产业,目前仍遥不可及。
        Yet when it comes to manufacturing, Dongguan suggests Made in China 2025 will succeed partly because the effort is bigger than Beijing. Chinese companies and local government officials are determined to climb the value chain so they will not fall into obsolescence. The best Washington can do is to make sure its policies help American companies stay ahead of the game.        但在制造业方面,东莞的例子表明,《中国制造2025》将取得成功,部分原因是中国的自动化努力远不只是政府所希望的。中国的企业和地方政府官员们已下定决心,为了不被淘汰,他们要沿着制造业价值链往上爬。华盛顿能做的最多只是确保美国政府的政策能够帮助美国公司保持领先地位。
                
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