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经济前景不确定,阿里下调年收入增长预期
Alibaba Feels the Pinch From China’s Slowing Economic Growth

来源:纽约时报    2018-11-05 02:19



        SHANGHAI——China’s biggest e-commerce company is expecting rockier times ahead, a troubling sign for a vast economy that is one of the world’s most important engines of growth.        上海——中国最大的电子商务公司预计迎来更加艰难的时期,对这个世界上最重要的增长引擎之一的庞大经济体来说,这是一个令人不安的迹象。
        The flagging pace of economic expansion in China and the country’s trade war with the United States led the Alibaba Group to cut its estimate of revenue growth for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, by around 5 percent, the shopping giant said on Friday. For the quarter that ended in September, revenue came in at $12.4 billion, a 54 percent increase from a year earlier but less than analysts had expected.        该购物巨头上周五表示,中国经济扩张步伐放缓,加之该国与美国的贸易战,阿里巴巴集团将截至3月份的当前财年收入增长预期下调约5%。在截至9月结束的季度,该公司收入为124亿美元,比去年同期增长54%,但低于分析师的预期。
        “The global economy is in a state of uncertainty,” Daniel Zhang, Alibaba’s chief executive, said in a conference call with analysts. “The U.S.-China trade tensions create increased risk of instability.”        “全球经济处于不确定状态,”阿里巴巴首席执行官张勇在与分析师的电话会议上表示。 “美中贸易紧张局势加剧了不稳定的风险。”
        The decision to lower sales expectations was made only recently, the company’s chief financial officer, Maggie Wu, said. Economic conditions deteriorated noticeably in just the past month, she said. “Merchants are facing challenging times,” she said.        该公司首席财务官武卫表示,最近才决定降低销售预期。她说,过去一个月经济状况明显恶化。 “商家正经历艰难时刻,”她说。
        There is mounting evidence that China’s economy, the world’s second-largest after the United States’, is slowing. But Alibaba’s trimming of its sales outlook suggests the downturn is starting to affect more parts of the economy, including China’s growing middle class.        中国是世界上仅次于美国的第二大经济体,越来越多的证据表明其经济正在放缓。但阿里巴巴下调销售预期的举动表明,衰退开始影响经济的更多领域,包括中国不断壮大的中产阶级。
        The Chinese government reported last month that economic output grew 6.5 percent in the latest quarter compared with the previous year, its slowest pace in nearly a decade. The country’s stock markets have tumbled, and its currency has slid. Beijing has pushed to add more money to the economy and had prodded local governments to increase spending. But the mountains of debt the country accumulated to fuel past growth are tying the authorities’ hands.        中国政府上个月公布,最近一个季度的经济产出同比增长6.5%,是近十年来最慢的增速。该国的股市下跌,货币贬值。北京方面一直推动为经济注入更多资金,并敦促地方政府增加开支。但是,这个国家过去为促进经济增长而积累的大量债务,如今却缚住了当局的手脚。
        China’s shoppers have generally been able to buoy the economy through its past ups and downs, as hundreds of millions of people rose into the middle class and spent their increased earnings on cars, appliances and better-quality food. Lately, though, consumers say they are tightening their purse strings and saving more of their income. Alibaba’s sales of electronics and other big-ticket items have been affected, executives said during the conference call on Friday.        随着数亿人进入中产阶级,并且把增加的收入用来购买汽车、电器和优质食品,中国的购物者通常能够支撑经济度过起伏。然而最近,消费者表示他们正在收紧钱包,将更多收入存起来。高管们在周五的电话会议上表示,阿里巴巴的电子产品和其他高价商品的销售受到了影响。
        Shawn Yang, 27, works in finance in Shanghai. He said that distress being felt in his industry had him thinking twice about buying nonessential items like gadgets and video games.        27岁的肖恩·杨(Shawn Yang,音)在上海从事金融工作。他说,自己的行业感受到了困境,这让他在购买电子产品和电子游戏等非必需品时三思而后行。
        Singles Day, the annual online shopping bonanza in China, comes on Nov. 11. Last year, Mr. Yang spent nearly $600 on workout clothes, shoes, a yoga mat and a coffee machine.        “光棍节”是每年11月11日中国的网上购物盛会。去年,杨先生花了近600美元购买运动服、鞋子、瑜伽垫和咖啡机。
        This year? He plans to spend less than half that amount, on jeans from Zara, two shirts for work and a bottle of moisturizer.        今年?他的计划支出还不到600美元的一半,用于购买Zara牛仔裤,两件工作时穿的衬衫和一瓶保湿霜。
        The other dark cloud hovering over the Chinese economy has drifted in from overseas.        笼罩在中国经济上的另一片乌云是从海外飘来的。
        The quarter that ended in September was the first since the Trump administration began its trade war with China. Alibaba executives have sought to reassure investors by pointing out that even if tariffs on imports make American goods more expensive, Chinese customers can still use Alibaba’s platforms to buy more products made domestically or in other countries.        于9月结束的季度是特朗普政府与中国开始贸易战以来的第一个季度。阿里巴巴高管试图向投资者保证,即使进口关税使美国商品更加昂贵,中国客户仍然可以利用阿里巴巴的平台购买更多在国内或其他国家生产的产品。
        But the effects of the tariffs are only beginning to be felt across China’s $12 trillion economy. Factory activity is slowing, which could eventually result in job losses and a drop in retail spending. Washington and Beijing seem to be hunkering down for a protracted conflict, one in which disagreements about trade seem inextricable from broader questions involving geopolitical and technological dominance.        但是,中国这个规模达12万亿美元的经济体才刚刚开始感受到关税的影响。工厂活动正在放缓,这最终可能导致失业和零售支出下降。华盛顿和北京似乎已经准备迎接一场旷日持久的冲突,在这场冲突中,贸易方面的分歧似乎与涉及地缘政治和科技优势的更广泛问题密不可分。
        For Alibaba, the timing is inopportune.        对于阿里巴巴来说,这个时机很不合适。
        Investors have already been selling off shares in technology companies on both sides of the Pacific this year. Alibaba stock, which trades in the United States, has lost around 30 percent of its value since June. Other major Chinese internet companies have fared even worse, as fears spread over a frostier regulatory environment for the country’s most vibrant enterprises.        今年,投资者一直在出售中美两国科技公司的股票。自6月以来,在美国交易的阿里巴巴股票已下跌约30%。其他主要的中国互联网公司表现更差,因为人们愈来愈担心这个国家最具活力的企业正在遭受日益严厉的监管环境。
        Alibaba has long enjoyed an unmatched grip on how Chinese consumers shop on their phones and computers. Lately, the company has said its future depends on extending its consumer empire into the wider, nondigital world.        长期以来,阿里巴巴主宰着中国消费者在手机和电脑上的购物。最近,该公司表示,它的未来取决于将消费帝国扩展到更广泛的线下世界。
        The company now has nearly 80 of its lavish, full-service Hema supermarkets, up from 20 a year ago. Alibaba’s logistics arm, Cainiao, recently opened what it called the “largest robotic smart warehouse in China,” in which 700 boxy droids wheel around rearranging giant shelves laden with goods.        该公司目前拥有近80家提供全方位服务的豪华盒马鲜生超市,一年前还只有20家。阿里巴巴的物流部门菜鸟最近开设了其所谓的“中国最大的机器人智能仓库”,700个四方形的机器人在这里围绕着装满货物的巨型货架,重新整理货物。
        Expanding its operations offline has helped raise Alibaba’s sales growth. Revenue from retail experiments like Hema jumped 151 percent in the latest quarter from a year earlier. Sales in the company’s cloud-computing division, the market leader in China, soared 90 percent.        扩展线下业务有助于提升阿里巴巴的销售增长。在最近一个季度,盒马等零售实验的收入较上年同期增长了151%。该公司云计算部门在中国市场居于领先地位,其销售额飙升了90%。
        But spending on developing the new ventures has squeezed the company’s bottom line. Asked on Friday whether the more pessimistic outlook for this year might lead Alibaba to scale back on such projects, Ms. Wu, the chief financial officer, said the company evaluated them not on their financial return, but according to other metrics, such as the number of users they attract.        但是,开发新项目的开支已经挤压了公司的利润。公司首席财务官武卫在上周五被问到,今年更为悲观的前景是否会导致阿里巴巴缩减此类项目,她回答,公司不会根据财务回报对其进行评估,而是根据吸引用户数量等其他指标。
                
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