一场党派之争等着特朗普,也许正适合他_OK阅读网
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一场党派之争等着特朗普,也许正适合他
A Partisan War Awaits Trump. That Just Might Suit Him.

来源:纽约时报    2018-11-08 02:50



        WASHINGTON — President Trump will wake up on Wednesday morning to a radically new political environment as he confronts the prospect of a two-year partisan war with a Democratic-run House armed with subpoena power and empowered to block his legislative agenda.        特朗普总统周三早上醒来时将身处全新的政治环境,他将面临一个两年的党派之争,民主党掌控的众议院有传讯权,并且有权阻挠他的立法计划。
        Combative by nature, happier in a fight, the president may now have to choose between escalating the pitched conflict that has torn Washington apart in recent years and attempting the sort of reach-across-the-aisle conciliation that has rarely marked his presidency so far.
        生性好斗、不战不欢的总统现在必须做出选择,是让近几年已经使华盛顿四分五裂的激烈冲突更上层楼,还是尝试与对立党派和解,至今在他的总统生涯里后一种情况几乎从未出现过。
        After waging a divisive and racially charged campaign, Mr. Trump signaled in the days leading up to Tuesday’s vote that he may soften his tone going forward, although past nods toward bipartisanship have never lasted long. With his party no longer holding all the levers of power in Washington, he cannot bypass the opposition if he hopes to transform his priorities into law.        发动了一场充满分裂和种族色彩的选战之后,特朗普在周二投票之前的几天暗示,他可能会软化自己推行政策的强势态度,当然以往他对两党合作的肯首从未持久过。他的政党不再把持华盛顿所有的权力杠杆,他想把他的优先事项落实为法律,就无法绕过反对党。
        Perhaps just as important, he will no longer have Republican majorities to guard his flank against investigations into all manner of issues that Democrats are eager to examine. The new House may press far more deeply into his personal and political affairs, demanding the tax returns he has kept secret, delving deeper into any ties with Russia and exploring any conflicts of interest.        也许同样重要的是,他不再有共和党多数席位来协防侧翼,反对调查那些民主党人迫切想要一探究竟的各种问题。新的众议院可能会更深地探入他的私人及政治事务,索要他秘不示人的报税表,深究他与俄罗斯的一切关系,查找一切利益冲突。
        At its most extreme, a Democratic House could even potentially pose an impeachment threat against the president depending on the results of the investigation by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, who has remained quiet during the campaign, although party leaders are wary of such a move.        最极端的情况,民主党掌控的众议院甚至可能对总统构成弹劾威胁,这取决于特别检察官罗伯特·S·穆勒三世(Robert S. Mueller III)的调查结果,他在竞选期间一直保持沉默,尽管党内领袖对这一举动持谨慎态度。
        “The administration will be under higher scrutiny and accountability by a Democratic House,” said former Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia. “Look for more investigations and subpoenas. The honeymoon is over. Voters voted to put a check on the president rather than giving him a blank check.”        “民主党的众议院将对政府进行更严格的审查和问责,”弗吉尼亚州共和党前众议员汤姆·戴维斯(Tom Davis)说。“他们想要更多的调查和传票。蜜月结束了。投票人表决的是要制约总统,而不是听之任之。”
         Mr. Trump became the fourth president in a row to endure a major midterm setback. Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost both houses of Congress in 1994, George W. Bush’s Republicans lost both houses in 2006, and Barack Obama’s Democrats lost the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.        特朗普成为接连第四位遭受重大中期挫折的总统。比尔·克林顿任期的民主党人在1994年丢掉了国会参众两院,小布什任期的共和党人在2006年丢掉了两院,而贝拉克·奥巴马任期的民主党人2010年丢掉众议院,2014年丢掉参议院。
        But Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama both bounced back from their first-term defeats to win re-election two years later, finding it useful politically to have an opposition to play off. In his time in politics, Mr. Trump has been at his most comfortable and confident when he has an enemy to joust with.        但克林顿和奥巴马都很快从第一个任期的挫败中恢复过来,在两年后赢得连任,他们发现有一个反对派来一决高下在政治上是有好处的。而在特朗普从政的日子里,与敌人对决时他是最舒适最自信的。
        “The subpoena process and investigations will be difficult,” said Marc Short, a former White House legislative director for Mr. Trump. “But there’s probably nothing that could help the president’s re-election prospects better than having Nancy Pelosi as speaker.”        “传讯程序和调查会很难对付,”特朗普的前白宫立法事务主管马克·肖特(Marc Short)说。“但对总统的连任前景来说,可能什么事都不如让南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)担任议长管用。”
        Former Representative Steve Israel, Democrat of New York, said the election results were a “mixed bag” for the president. “With a House Democratic majority, he has the foil he needs for his re-election campaign in 2020,” Mr. Israel said. “But no president wants the other party with subpoena power — certainly not this president.”        纽约州民主党前众议员史蒂夫·伊斯雷尔(Steve Israel)表示,选举结果对总统来说“好坏参半”。“有了民主党占多数席位的众议院,他在2020年的连任竞选中就有了他需要的反衬。”伊斯雷尔说。“但没有哪个总统愿意对手党派拥有传讯权——这位总统就更不用说了。”
        On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump characterized the midterm elections as a referendum on his presidency, telling supporters that they needed to vote for Republicans to continue his policies and guard him against impeachment. He made clear that he would cast a victory as a personal vindication while pre-emptively insisting that if Republicans lost, it would not be a repudiation of him.        在选举宣传活动中,特朗普将中期选举定性为对其总统任期的公投,并告诉支持者,他们需要投票支持共和党人,以便延续他的政策,并保护他免遭弹劾。他明确表示,胜利将会是对他个人的证明,同时先发制人地坚称,共和党人失利不会是对他的否定。
        In the days leading up to the elections, Mr. Trump emphasized that history was against him because most presidents see their party lose seats in midterm elections, in effect trying to inoculate himself against any backlash that might come with a defeat. He had a point. In the 39 midterm elections since 1862, the president’s party lost House seats 35 times and seats in the Senate 24 times.        在选举前的几天里,特朗普强调,历史没有站在他这一边,因为大多数总统所在的政党都会在中期选举中失去多数席位,他实际上是试图让自己免受任何可能因失败而产生的强烈反作用影响。他是有道理的。自1862年以来的39次中期选举中,总统所在的政党35次失去了众议院多数席位,24次失去了参议院多数席位。
        Moreover, Mr. Trump was spared the worst outcome as Republicans held onto the Senate, ensuring his ability to continue confirming judges and other appointees. The Senate will most likely block any unfriendly legislation that House Democrats might advance, avoiding the need for the president to use his veto power.        此外,由于共和党人掌握着参议院,特朗普没有遭受最坏的结果,这可以确保他有能力继续确认法官和其他被任命者。参议院很可能会阻止众议院民主党提出的任何不友好的立法,从而避免总统使用否决权的必要性。
        But Republican setbacks in governor’s races in key states could complicate Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign in two years. Democrats captured the governor’s mansions in states like Kansas and Michigan that Mr. Trump won two years ago, and their control over governments in those places could make it harder for the president to repeat his feat in 2020.        但共和党在关键州的州长竞选中遇到的挫折,可能会使特朗普两年后的竞选连任复杂化。在堪萨斯和密歇根等特朗普曾在两年前赢下的几个州,民主党人夺回了州长职位,他们对这些政府的控制可能使总统在2020年更加难以复制他的大胜。
        Mayor Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, a former Democratic congressman and White House chief of staff, said the Democrats’ success in taking the House and the governor’s races represents a repudiation of a president at a time when unemployment is at 3.7 percent, a nearly half-century low.        前民主党国会议员和白宫幕僚长,芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)表示,目前的失业率为3.7%,是半世纪以来的最低值,在这样一个时候,民主党成功夺回众议院,并在州长竞选中获胜,代表了对总统的否定。
        “The Democrats have no business picking up the House and the governorships, no business,” Mr. Emanuel said. “The fact is this was a blue wave with a red undertow.” The Democrats, he added, were building a “metropolitan majority,” a coalition of urban and suburban voters that he said would make it harder for the president to win a second term.        “民主党人没有理由赢得众议院和州长职位,没有理由,” 伊曼纽尔说。“事实上,这是一个带有红色退浪的蓝色浪潮。”他还说,民主党人正在建立一个“大都市多数”,一个由城市和郊区选民组成的联盟,他说这将使特朗普更难赢得第二个任期。
        How the president will recalibrate, if at all, may become clearer in the days and weeks to come as he reshuffles his staff and cabinet and decides whether to force a showdown with the departing Republican Congress over money for his long-promised wall along the southern border, funds he seems unlikely to win once the Democrats formally take the reins in the House in January.        如果总统进行重新调整的话,他将如何调整?未来几天至几周内可能会变得更加清晰,届时他将重新调整自己的幕僚和内阁,并决定是否强行与即将脱离共和党控制的国会摊牌,争取资金,修建南方边境上他长久以来承诺的墙,一旦民主党人在1月份正式接管众议院,他似乎不太可能赢得这笔钱。
        Moreover, the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, which took a public pause during the fall campaign, may soon come to a climax, tempting the president to shut it down or fire Mr. Mueller as he has contemplated. Any such move would inflame the capital and potentially provoke House Democrats to use their new power to take action.        此外,关于俄罗斯干预2016年大选的调查在秋季竞选期间公开暂停,之后可能很快就会达到高潮,诱使总统如他所考虑过的那样将其关闭,或解雇穆勒。任何此类举动都会激怒国会,并可能激怒众议院民主党人,利用他们的新权力采取行动。
        Mr. Trump, however, is a more flexible political figure than many, capable of shifting his position on a dime without worrying about looking consistent, and as a result, he could in theory decide to work with Democrats even at the risk of angering fellow Republicans. The same president who went from threatening nuclear war against North Korea’s leader to declaring that the two had fallen in love could conceivably reposition himself into a negotiator with Democrats.        然而,特朗普是比许多政治人物更加灵活,能够很快改变立场,同时不担心自己看上去是否前后一致,因此,理论上,他可以决定与民主党人合作,即使冒着激怒自己的共和党人的风险。这位总统曾经威胁要对朝鲜领导人发动核战争,转眼又宣布两人陷入爱河,可以想象,他会重新把自己定位成同民主党的谈判代表。
        “Democrats winning the House provides a silver lining for the president in that he could craft bipartisan solutions for prescription drug costs and infrastructure,” said Sara Fagen, a former White House political director under Mr. Bush. “But it also means members of his administration will spend many, many hours dealing with investigations, including answering questions under subpoena.”        “民主党赢得众议院对总统也有一丝好处,他可以就处方药成本和基础设施问题制定两党解决方案,”布什的前白宫政治主管萨拉·费根(Sara Fagen)说。“但这也意味着他的政府成员将花费很多时间处理调查,包括应传讯要求回答问题。”
        Mr. Trump also retains the power to set foreign policy as other presidents did during times of clashes with Congress and indeed, he leaves on Friday for a weekend in Paris, where he will join other world leaders in marking the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.        和其他与国会发生冲突的总统一样,特朗普还保有制定外交政策的权力,事实上,他周五动身前往巴黎度周末,与其他世界领导人一起庆祝第一次世界大战结束100周年。
        Mr. Israel said confrontation was not necessarily a foregone conclusion, depending on how the president chooses to respond.        伊斯雷尔说, 对抗未必是定局,这取决于总统选择如何回应。
        “I do think there’s a hidden opportunity here,” he said. “House and Senate Democrats can present Trump with legislation on infrastructure investments and lowering prescription drug costs, two issues he campaigned on.”        “我认为仍有一个隐藏的机会,”他说。 “众议院和参议院民主党人可以向特朗普提出有关基础设施投资和降低处方药成本的立法,这是他竞选时提出的两个问题。”
        “If he take the deals,” he added, “he marginalizes Senate Republicans when they’re defending 20 seats in the next election. If he doesn’t take the deals, he’s got nothing to run on. Either way, Democrats are in the driver’s seat.”        “如果他接受这些交易,”他补充说,“他就会使参议院共和党人边缘化,在下一次选举中,他们要捍卫20个席位。如果他不接受这些交易,他就没什么东西可以继续搞了。无论哪种方式,民主党人都处于主导地位。“
                
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