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关于美国中期选举,你需要知道的一切
Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections

来源:纽约时报    2018-11-07 09:14



        Update on Nov. 7.        11月7日更新:第一个投票站已于美国东部时间下午6点关闭,最后一站是阿拉斯加。计票正在进行中。更多关于中期选举的消息,请阅读今日的NYT简报。
        When are the midterms?        中期选举是在什么时候?
        Nov. 6, 2018. Bring a friend.        2018年11月6日。叫上朋友一起去。
        What’s at stake in Washington?        会涉及华盛顿哪些层面?
        435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats.        435个众议院席位和33个参议院席位。
        Matters of interest include: which party controls the two chambers of Congress and has oversight power of President Trump and his administration. (Hint: Democrats will investigate far more aggressively than Republicans have, if given the chance.) Also, voters are generally eligible for those little “I Voted” stickers, which tend to be crowd pleasers.        值得关注的事项包括:国会两院将由哪个政党控制,并获得对特朗普总统及其政府的监督权。(提示:如果有机会,民主党人将比共和党人更积极地展开调查)此外,选民一般都会获得“I Voted”(我投票了)贴纸,那是经常能引起周围人欢呼的东西。
        Good to know: House seats are up every two years. But because senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered, 33 states have Senate races this fall.        不妨了解一下:众议院议席每两年选一次。由于参议员的任期为六年,且是错开的,所以今年秋天有33个州要选参议员。
        What about outside of Washington?        华盛顿以外的地方呢?
         6,665 state positions and thousands more local ones.        6665个州职位和成千上万个地方职位。
        Don’t forget the governorships, state legislative seats and scores of other nonfederal offices, down to the municipal level. Thirty-six states will elect governors this year.        别忘了还要选州长、州立法席位和其他众多非联邦机构的职位,包括市级。今年有36个州将选出新的州长。
        Who’s going to win the House?        谁会赢得众议院?
        Definitely the Democrats.        肯定是民主党。
        Or the Republicans.        或者共和党。
        Definitely one of those.        反正是其中一个。
        There has been talk of a so-called blue wave lifting Democrats to majorities in the House and Senate. And there are credible signs that Democrats are intensely energized this year. But a strong economy and protectiveness of President Trump will motivate plenty of Republicans. So there’s no guarantee which party will win big — there are just too many tight races. Take a spin through these poll results, and see for yourself.        大家一直在谈论所谓的“蓝色浪潮”,让民主党拿下参众两院的多数席位。有可信的迹象表明,民主党今年充满活力。但强劲的经济,以及特朗普的贸易保护举措,将激励大量的共和党人出来投票。所以,难以保证哪个党将大胜——只会有很多势均力敌的竞争。看看那些民调结果,作出自己的判断。
        If Democrats take the House, what happens?        如果民主党拿下众议院,会带来什么?
        Politically: investigations, lectern-pounding, maybe impeachment proceedings. Legislatively: probably next to nothing, with a return to divided government. Which Democrats would consider a significant upgrade.        政治上:展开调查,高声演说,也许还会启动弹劾程序。立法上:恐怕难有成就,回归到分裂政府状态。民主党人会认为这是一个重大的进展。
        If Republicans keep the House, what happens?        如果共和党守住了众议院,会发生什么?
        Politically: more one-party rule in Washington, perhaps an even more emboldened Mr. Trump, almost certainly no impeachment. Legislatively: more deregulation, maybe more tax cuts, maybe another run at repealing the Affordable Care Act.        政治上:华盛顿的一党统治进一步加强,特朗普可能更加为所欲为,几乎可以肯定不会遭到弹劾。立法上:更多的放松管制,也许还有更多的减税,也许还会进行废除《合理医疗费用法案》(Affordable Care Act)的又一次尝试。
        How many House seats do Democrats need to pick up to take over the House?        民主党需要夺过多少席位,才能在众议院成为多数党?
         23.        23席。
        How do they get there?        他们要如何实现这个目标?
        Start with many of the 23 Republican-held seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.        先得拿下希拉里·克林顿在2016年所赢选区的23个共和党席位当中的一部分。
        But Democrats see plausible openings in dozens of districts, from diverse metro areas and suburbs — where many college-educated voters think little of Mr. Trump — to some rural seats. Here, we created a field guide to the main battlefields for control of the House.        但民主党在数十个选区看到了明确的机会,从多元的都市区到郊区(这里许多受过大学教育的选民看不起特朗普),到一些农村席位。我们在这里建了一个众议院争夺战的战场指南。
        How many Americans live in competitive congressional districts?        有多少美国人生活在竞争激烈的国会选区?
        More than 50 million or so.        5000多万。
        There are about 75 competitive races out of 435 House seats. Districts are each intended to have about 700,000 people. So that gives us more than 50 million in competitive districts.        在众议院的435个席位中,大约75个竞争激烈。每个选区大约有70万人。所以,在竞争激烈的选区,有超过5000万人。
        Which states have the most competitive House races?        哪些州的众议院之争最激烈?
        These 30.        这30个州。
        There are consequential races all over: California, the northeast (Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey), the Midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota), even traditional Republican strongholds like Texas. We’re keeping track of the tightest ones.        各地都存在十分关键的争夺:加州、东北部(宾夕法尼亚、纽约、新泽西)、中西部(艾奥瓦、伊利诺伊、明尼苏达),甚至是传统的共和党据点,如德州。我们在跟进那些竞争最为激烈的州。
        Does my vote matter?        我的投票重要吗?
        Yes.        重要。
        I mean, sure, it is unlikely that your vote will be the literal tiebreaker in a given election. But this is not impossible! And the whole exercise can be civically meaningful even in races decided by more than one vote.        我的意思是,当然,在特定的选举中,你的那一票不太可能决定胜负。但这并非不可能!而且,即使在超过一票决定的选举中,整个过程也具有公民意义。
        Plus, midterm turnout generally lags well behind presidential year turnout. So it’s a great opportunity for contrarians to undercut statistical expectations, if that’s your thing.        此外,中期选举的投票率一般低于总统选举。所以这是反对派人士打破统计预期的好机会,如果这是你感兴趣的目标的话。
        Can I vote early?
        我可以提前投票吗?
        Depends on where you live. Early voting has already started in some states. Here’s a good roundup.        这取决于你住在哪里。在一些州,提前投票已经开始了。这是一篇很好的总结。
        How late can I register? Where do I vote?        可以什么时候注册?我去哪里投票?
        Rules vary by state. This page is a useful guide.        每个州规定不同。这个页面是个有用的指南。
        Will my vote be safe?        我的投票安全吗?
         Probably. Maybe.        可能吧。也许。
        But really: There are serious questions about protecting the integrity of the vote — and the election process. And, as ever, the White House has been a wild card. Mr. Trump, who has often questioned the intelligence community’s consensus on Russian interference in 2016, has signed an executive order to punish foreign meddling, but lawmakers in both parties have been pushing for something more aggressive.        但实际上:有关选票公正性的保护正面临严重质疑。而且,与以往一样,白宫是一个不可知因素。特朗普总统经常质疑情报界对俄罗斯干涉2016年大选的共识,他已签署了一项惩罚外国干预的行政命令,但两党的立法者一直在推动更剧烈的措施。
        We broke down what we know about the Russia story for you here and here.        我们在这里和这里详细拆解了我们对俄罗斯一事的了解。
        What role is social media playing in the midterms?        社交媒体在这次中期选举中起什么作用?
        A large one.        作用很大。
        The prominence of platforms like Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat is nothing new for campaigns, but never before have politicians had more options to circumvent traditional media. One critical example: Candidates are aiming to produce the next viral video as a proxy for pricey television commercials, and often sharing the message largely through social media.        Facebook、Twitter和Snapchat等平台的重要性对竞选活动来说不是什么新鲜事,但政治人物从未有过如此多绕开传统媒体的选项。一个至关重要的例子:候选人们的目标是制作下一个病毒式传播视频,将其作为昂贵的电视广告的代理,并经常大量依赖社交媒体来分享信息。
        What is Facebook doing differently?        Facebook有采取什么不同的措施吗
        Between expansive data leaks and (actual) fake news, in 2016 and since, it has not been a great run for Facebook. Besides the ubiquitous ads vaguely apologizing, the company has said it is on the case, on both fronts, but already the threat of influence on campaigns has proved very real in 2018.        有鉴于大规模数据泄露和(真正的)虚假新闻,Facebook自2016年以来表现不佳。除了用无处不在的广告模糊地道歉之外,该公司已表示正在全力应对这两方面的问题,但我们已经看到影响竞选活动的威胁在2018年是非常真切的。
        The company has cited outside attempts to affect the midterms, with tactics that bear a strong resemblance to the Russians’ in 2016. One of many challenges for Facebook, as my colleague Kevin Roose wrote recently, is “to separate the ordinary rants and raves of legitimate users from coordinated, possibly state-backed attempts to sway public opinion.”        该公司提到了外界试图影响中期选举的尝试,其策略与2016年俄罗斯的情况非常相似。正如我的同事凯文·鲁斯(Kevin Roose)最近所写的那样,Facebook面临的众多挑战之一是“区分真实用户发出的普通咆哮和愤怒与国家支持的左右舆论企图”。
        How does the special counsel investigation affect the midterms?        特别法律顾问调查会如何影响中期选举?
        Hard to say.        很难说。
        Many Democratic candidates have largely avoided the Russia affair to date, preferring to talk about domestic issues. But Nov. 6 is still a long way off, in political terms, and a major breakthrough in the investigation led by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III (or other inquiries into the president and those close to him), could become an “October surprise.”        迄今为止,很多民主党候选人在很大程度上回避了俄罗斯事件,他们更愿意谈论国内事务。但从政治角度上来说,距11月6日仍然有很长一段时间,由特别检察官罗伯特·S·穆勒三世(Robert S. Mueller III)领导的调查(或其他对总统及其身边人的调查)取得的重大突破,可能会成为“十月惊喜”。
        What kinds of policy discussions have dominated races?        何种政策讨论主导了竞选?
        Healthcare is universally a biggie, often with debates on two tracks: between Democrats and Republicans on the merits of the Affordable Care Act (still) and between Democrats and Democrats on whether Medicare for all is the long-term answer. Others: immigration, education, gun control.        医保普遍是一个大问题,争论有两条主线:民主党人和共和党人之间就《合理医疗费用法案》的功过(仍在进行的)讨论,以及民主党人和民主党人之间关于全民联邦医疗保险(Medicare)是否是长期对策的讨论。其他议题有:移民、教育和控枪。
        Do Democrats have a chance to take the Senate, too?        民主党也有机会拿下参议院吗?
        Sure, but the road is long.        当然,但有很长一段路要走。
        Ten Democrats are up for re-election in states that Mr. Trump won in 2016, several of which he won bigly. By contrast, Democrats have a realistic chance to gain seats in only a few states, so their margin for error is close to zero, with Republicans already holding a slim majority.        2016年特朗普获胜的州中——其中有一些州是大胜——有10名民主党人正竞选连任。相比来看,民主党只在少数几个州有切实的机会,因此他们几乎没有犯错的余地,而共和党人已经占据了微弱的多数。
        Which Republican-held seats must the Democrats win to have any shot at capturing the Senate?        民主党必须赢下共和党控制的哪几个席位才能有机会夺取参议院?
         Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.        内华达州、亚利桑那州和田纳西州。
        Texas is also on the radar, with Representative Beto O’Rourke running a strong race against Senator Ted Cruz, the man Democrats love to really, really not love.        德克萨斯州也处在关注之下,众议员贝托·欧洛克(Beto O’Rourke)与参议员特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)进行了激烈竞争——后者是民主党人乐于去深恶痛绝的人。
        If the House and Senate split, what are the odds of any major legislation getting passed for two years?        如果众议院与参议院分裂,任何重大立法在两年内通过的几率是多少?
        Pooooooooooooooooooooor!        非常非常非常非常非常小!
        What sort of Republican candidates made it through the primaries?        什么样的共和党人通过了初选?
        The ones who seemed the most like Mr. Trump.
        那些看起来最像特朗普的人。
         They did quite well in Republican primaries, often with an endorsement assist from the president himself.        他们在共和党初选中做得很好,经常得到总统本人的背书。
        Subtlety has been rare, particularly in ads. In Florida, Ron DeSantis’s successful bid for the nomination for governor included a spot that found his young child wearing a “Make America Great Again” onesie. In another ad in Georgia, Brian Kemp, the Republican nominee for governor, sat in a truck he pledged to use “just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take them home myself.” But do voters in a general election want more Trumpism? We’ll find out.        含蓄是个很稀罕的东西了,尤其是在竞选广告中。在佛罗里达州,罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)成功得到州长竞选提名的过程中,他年幼的孩子一度穿起了“让美国恢复伟大荣光”(Make America Great Again)的连体衣。在佐治亚州共和党州长候选人布莱恩·坎普(Brian Kemp)的另一则广告中,他坐在一辆卡车里,承诺“如果需要我亲手把作奸犯科的非法移民抓起来送回家”,他会去做。但大选中的选民真的想要更多的特朗普主义吗?我们拭目以待。
        Is it really the “Year of the Woman”?        这真的是“女性之年”吗?
        Certainly looks that way.        看起来无疑是这样的。
         A record 257 women are running for the House and Senate this fall, and more women have won House primaries than in any year in the nation’s history — 235.        今年秋天有创纪录的257名女性参加众议院和参议院竞选,赢得众议院初选的女性达到235名,为本国有史以来最多的一次。
         Women have also broken records in primaries for governor’s offices, and there are more woman vs. woman contests than ever before. And in many competitive races, women have emerged from crowded primary fields filled with men.        女性在州长职位的初选中也打破了记录,女性对女性的竞争比以往任何时候都多。在许多激烈的竞争中,女性已经从充斥着男性的初选人海中脱颖而出。
        But despite a record number of female nominees, Congress remains a long way from achieving the gender breakdown of the country itself. Many of this year’s female nominees are running against men in competitive districts, or as long shots against male incumbents.        尽管女性被提名人数创历史新高,距离国会实现和国家人口一致的男女比例还很遥远。今年的许多女性候选人都是在竞争激烈的地区与男性竞争,或者与男性在任者竞争时机会不大。
        What candidates are making Democrats excited?        有哪些候选人让民主党人感到激动?
         The Democratic future appears to be young, progressive and racially diverse — from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic socialist who toppled a longtime House incumbent in a primary in New York; to Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for governor in Florida; to Stacey Abrams, who is trying to become the nation’s first black female governor, in the Georgia race.        民主党的未来似乎是年轻、进步和极为多元化的——从民主社会主义者、纽约初选中击败了现任众议员的亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez),到民主党佛罗里达州长提名人安德鲁·吉勒姆(Andrew Gillum),乃至正努力在乔治亚州的竞选中成为美国第一位非裔女性州长的斯泰西·阿布拉姆(Stacey Abrams)。
        What candidates are making Republicans excited?        有哪些候选人让共和党人感到激动?
         The Democratic senators who are sweating re-election in 10 states that Mr. Trump won. Among them: Republicans see upside in Missouri, where the Democrat, Senator Claire McCaskill, is trying to fend off Josh Hawley, the 38-year-old state attorney general. Same goes for Florida, where Senator Bill Nelson is facing Gov. Rick Scott, a wealthy businessman.        民主党参议员们对10个特朗普获胜选区的重选感到紧张。其中有:共和党人在密苏里州能看到一些优势,那里的民主党参议员克莱尔·麦卡斯基尔(Claire McCaskill)正在努力击退38岁的州检察长乔希·霍利(Josh Hawley)。佛罗里达州的情况也是如此,比尔·尼尔逊(Bill Nelson)将对阵州长里克·斯科特(Rick Scott),后者是一名富有的商人。
        Who can make history this year?        谁能在今年创造历史?
        Lots of folks.        有很多人。
         Andrew Gillum would be the first African-American to lead his state.        安德鲁·吉勒姆将是第一位领导自己所在州的非裔美国人。
         Stacey Abrams would be the first African-American woman to lead any state.        斯泰西·阿布拉姆将是首位领导一个州的非裔美国女性。
        In Tennessee, Representative Marsha Blackburn, the Republican nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the state’s first female senator.        田纳西州有一个空缺的参议员席位,共和党提名人、众议员玛莎·布莱克本(Marsha Blackburn)可能成为该州首位女性参议员。
        In Vermont, Christine Hallquist, a Democrat, is the first transgender candidate ever to be nominated for governor by a major party.        在佛蒙特州,民主党人克里斯蒂娜·哈尔奎斯特(Christine Hallquist)是有史以来首位成为主要党派州长提名人的跨性别候选人。
         Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, each seeking House seats, would be the first Muslim-American women in Congress.        密歇根州的拉希达·塔利布(Rashida Tlaib)和明尼苏达州的伊尔汗·奥马尔(Ilhan Omar)都在谋求众议院席位,二人都将成为国会首度出现穆斯林美国女性。
         Jared Polis of Colorado would become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.        科罗拉多州的贾里德·波利斯(Jared Polis)将成为首位当选州长的已出柜男同性恋者。
        Have scandals affected the House outlook at all?        各种丑闻影响到众议院的竞选形势了吗?
        Well…        这个嘛......
         Two Republican congressmen from solidly red districts — Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California — were indicted recently. Republicans, including the president, have expressed some worry about losing those seats now. Mr. Trump blamed Jeff Sessions, the attorney general, for the Justice Department’s decision to bring charges so close to November.        两名来自绝对红色选区的共和党国会议员——纽约的克里斯·柯林斯(Chris Collins)与加利福尼亚州的邓肯·亨特(Duncan Hunter)近期遭到起诉。包括总统在内的共和党人如今都表达了对于丢掉这些席位的担忧。由于是司法部决定在如此临近11月的时候提起诉讼的,特朗普把责任归咎于司法部长杰夫·塞申斯(Jeff Sessions)。
        Is it common for a president to defend those accused of crimes on political grounds?
        总统以政治理由为那些被控犯罪的人辩护,这常见吗?
        It is not.        不常见。
        Which Washington power players stand to lose the most on Election Day?        选举日那天,华盛顿哪些权势人士会遭受最大损失?
        If Democrats fail to win the House, it’s hard to imagine Nancy Pelosi holding on for long as the party’s leader in the chamber. If Republicans somehow lose the Senate, their majority leader, Mitch McConnell, will probably not love life back in the minority. Confirming another conservative Supreme Court justice, for instance, would be quite difficult without 50 Republican votes.        如果民主党人不能拿下众议院,很难想象南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在众议院民主党领袖位子上还能坐多久。如果共和党人阴差阳错丢掉了参议院,他们的多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)很可能不会喜欢过重新成为少数党的日子。例如,如果没有50个共和党人的投票,确认另一位保守派最高法院大法官将会很难。
        Are there ballot measures worth watching?        有哪些值得关注的选票提案吗?
        Several!        有好几个!
         Among them: A handful of conservative states — Utah, Nebraska, Idaho — will consider proposals to expand Medicaid, with supporters hoping to outflank conservative lawmakers who have blocked the efforts legislatively. Some Western states have ballot initiatives involving energy pricing — including one in California about the state gas tax and another in Washington State on carbon emissions. And in Florida, a closely watched measure would re-establish voting rights for convicted felons who have served their time.        其中有:几个保守州——犹他、内布拉斯加、爱达荷——将考虑扩大联邦医疗补助的提案,支持者们希望能击败曾经从立法方面阻止这种努力的保守派议员。一些西部州的创制权投票涉及能源定价——包括加州一个关于州汽油税、华盛顿州一个关于碳排放的创制权投票。此外,在佛罗里达州,一个备受关注的举措将恢复那些服过刑的重罪犯的投票权。
        Are the midterms just a referendum on Mr. Trump?        中期选举只是一个对特朗普的公投吗?
        Largely, but not exclusively.        基本上是,但也不全是。
         Local issues always matter, sometimes quite a bit. And policies from the Republican Congress — like the tax overhaul and the push for health care repeal — might be powerful motivators for many voters, for reasons that have little to do with Mr. Trump alone.        地方问题永远是重要的,有时候关系重大。此外,共和党国会的政策——例如税改及废除医保的努力——对许多选民来说可能是强有力的动力,而他们投票的理由可能与特朗普本身没什么关系。
        Is Mr. Trump a boon or a liability for Republican candidates?        对共和党候选人来说,特朗普能带来好处还是一个负累?
        It’s like the real estate market: all about location, location, location.        这就像房地产市场:重要的是位置、位置和位置。
        Generally, the president is useful where he’s popular and less useful where he’s not. (Stunning, yes.) But many Republicans all over the map are welcoming his help. In 2016, Mr. Trump mocked Ted Cruz’s wife, his father and his faith.        总的来说,在他受欢迎的地方,总统是很有用的,在不受欢迎的地方没那么有用。(很令人震惊,没错。)但全国各地的许多共和党人都很欢迎他的帮忙。2016年,特朗普嘲笑过特德·克鲁兹的妻子、父亲及他的信仰。
        Now Mr. Cruz, facing a tough re-election, plans to have Mr. Trump headline a rally in Texas.        如今,面临着一场艰难重选的克鲁兹计划让特朗普成为德克萨斯州一场集会的中心。
        Can I trust the polls?
        我能相信民调吗?
        Yes and no!        可以,也不可以!
        Generally, polls are more revealing about the electorate and issues than highly accurate predictors for Election Day. This year, many projections suggest that Democrats have a better than 50-50 chance of taking back the House. And no one is saying it’s a sure thing. Here at The New York Times, the Upshot’s live polling project is a great example of both compelling data and radical candor about what we do not (and cannot) know for certain.        总的来说,民调更多的是对选民和议题的揭示,而不是对选举日的精确预测。今年,许多预测暗示民主党夺回众议院的几率大于50%。但没人能保证结果一定如此。关于我们不知道(也不能)确定的事情,《纽约时报》“结语”(Upshot)栏目的实时民调项目是一个兼具令人信服的数据和极度诚实的绝佳例子。
        O.K., the midterms end and then what?        OK,中期选举结束了,然后呢?
        Joy, relief, despair. And the 2020 presidential campaign basically starts immediately.        开心、解脱、绝望。而且基本上2020年总统大选紧接着就开始了。
                
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