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美股大跌给美国经济敲响警钟
Stock Market’s Slide Is Flashing a Warning About the Economy

来源:纽约时报    2018-11-21 03:37



        Unemployment is near lows not seen in half a century. The American economy is set for its best year since 2005. Large corporations are producing giant profits. Even wages are starting to rise.        失业率接近半个世纪以来的最低点。美国经济将迎来自2005年以来最好的一年。大公司正在创造巨额利润。甚至工资也开始上涨。
        And the stock markets are a mess.        然而股票市场一团糟。
        The losses extended on Tuesday, as the S&P 500-stock index turned negative for the year, stoking fears that one of the longest bull markets in history could be at risk.        随着今年的标准普尔500指数转为负值,周二损失扩大,令人们担心史上最长的牛市之一可能面临风险。
        The stock market struggles may seem incongruous with an American economy that by many measures looks strong. But stocks often act as an early warning system, picking up subtle changes before they appear in the economic data.        美国经济在很多方面看起来都很强劲,股票市场的动荡似乎与其不协调。但股票通常充当早期预警系统,在微妙的变化出现在经济数据里之前就觉察到了它们。
        In recent weeks, retail stocks have been hit over concerns of rising costs, a sign that the trade war may be starting to take a toll and that higher wages are cutting into profits. Commodities and the companies that depend on them have been pummeled by the prospect of weaker demand should the global economy slow. Five tech giants — Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Netflix — have shed more than $800 billion in market value since the end of August, the fallout from slowing growth and regulatory scrutiny.        最近几周,由于对成本上涨的担忧,零售股受到打击,这表明贸易战可能开始造成损失,而且工资上涨也正在侵蚀利润。大宗商品和依赖它们的公司受到全球经济放缓导致需求疲软前景的打击。自8月底以来,五大科技巨头——Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)、Alphabet、苹果(Apple)和Netflix——市值已缩水超过8000亿美元,这是增长放缓和监管审查的结果。
        The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday at 2,642, down 1.8 percent. Other markets also flashed warnings, with oil dropping by 6.8 percent, falling deeper into bear territory.        标准普尔500指数周二收盘时为2642点,下跌1.8%。其他市场也发出警告,油价下跌6.8%,跌至熊市区域。
        The sell-off doesn’t mean the United States is headed into a recession. The stock market suffered several sharp stumbles in recent years before climbing to new highs on the back of booming corporate profits and strong economic growth.        抛售并不意味着美国将陷入衰退。股市在近几年遭遇了几次大幅下挫,由于企业利润增长和经济增长强劲,令它再创新高。
        But the recent market drop is consistent with a potential downshift in the American economy. In 2018, a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus allowed the United States to shake off the growth worries in China, Europe and the rest of the world. It won’t have the same potency next year, leaving the American economy vulnerable to a global slowdown.        但最近的市场下跌与美国经济可能出现的下滑趋势一致。在2018年,大量的财政刺激措施使美国摆脱了中国、欧洲和世界其他地区出现的对增长的担忧。这些措施明年将不再有相同的效果,使得美国经济容易受到全球经济放缓的影响。
        “I think there’s very clear signs that investors are beginning to worry about weaker growth in the coming year or so, and how that’s going to feed through to corporate earnings,” said Michael Pearce, senior United States economist with Capital Economics.        “我认为有非常明显的迹象表明,投资者开始担心未来一年左右的增长疲软,以及这将如何影响企业盈利,”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)资深美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)表示。
        Until recently, investors were willing to ignore the geopolitical dramas, economic risks and other issues clouding the outlook for American companies. Now, they are jittery, pressing sell at even small signs of trouble.        直到前不久,投资者还对地缘政治事件、经济风险和其他给美国公司的前景蒙上阴影的问题视而不见。现在,他们变得紧张不安,甚至在麻烦出现小征兆时就急着出售。
        Strong growth and deep corporate tax cuts have supercharged corporate profits this year. Once all the results are tallied up, the third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to be up more than 28 percent from a year earlier — outpacing previous quarters.        强劲的增长和大幅企业减税措施使今年的企业利润增加。一旦所有结果统计出来,标准普尔500指数成份股公司第三季度的收益预计将比去年同期增长28%以上——超过前几个季度。
        But those numbers haven’t satisfied investors, who have grown simultaneously concerned about risks they face if the economy stays strong — such as rising interest rates and increased expenses for wages — as well as the threat to stocks from a significant global slowdown.        但这些数字并未令投资者满意,他们同时还关注经济保持强势所面临的风险——例如利率上升和工资支出增加——以及全球经济放缓对股市的威胁。 
        On Tuesday, shares of the retailer Target dropped by more than 10 percent, on worries that rising costs — from increased wages to higher prices for the Chinese goods facing tariffs — could continue to crimp profits. Investors also dumped shares of Kohl’s and TJX, the owner of T.J. Maxx, which both saw freight costs eat into earnings.        周二,零售商塔吉特(Target)的股价下跌超过10%,原因是担心成本上升——从工资上涨到面临关税的中国商品价格上涨——可能继续压低利润。投资者还抛售了柯尔(Kohl’s)和T.J. Maxx公司的所有者TJX的股票,两家公司都面临运费成本侵蚀利润。
        Apple continued its slide on worries about softening demand. The tech giant tumbled nearly 5 percent, after Goldman Sachs equity analysts cut their price target citing deteriorating demand, especially in China.        由于担心需求疲软,苹果股价继续下滑。在高盛(Goldman Sachs)股票分析师因需求恶化(尤其是在中国)下调其价格目标后,这家科技股大跌近5%。
        China, the world’s largest consumer of oil, has also been weighing on commodities. Oil prices, now just above $53 a barrel, have fallen more than 20 percent since early October. On Tuesday, the energy sector of the S&P 500 was the worst performing part of the stock market.        中国是世界上最大的石油消费国,也一直对大宗商品有很大影响。自10月初以来,油价目前略高于每桶53美元,跌幅超过20%。周二,标准普尔500指数的能源板块是股市表现最差的板块。
        Weakness in China is feeding broader global concerns. Last quarter, the country’s growth slowed to its lowest level since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis.        中国的疲弱正在引发更广泛的全球关注。上一季度,在全球金融危机低谷之时,该国的增长放缓至2009年以来的最低水平。
        Japan is also looking shaky, with the economy contracting in the third quarter. And Germany, the powerhouse behind Europe, shrank unexpectedly during the third quarter as well.        由于第三季度经济萎缩,日本也看起来不稳定。而欧洲的经济强国德国也在第三季度意外萎缩。
        The global slowdown could eventually spill over into the United States, particularly as the impact of this year’s tax cuts fades in 2019. For investors, that could mean a choppy new phase in the markets after years of solid gains.        全球经济放缓可能最终波及美国,特别是今年减税措施的影响在2019年消退时。对于投资者来说,这可能意味着经过多年的稳定增长后,市场将进入一个动荡的新阶段。
        “I think this is what a low-return environment starts to feel like,” said Joe Davis, chief economist with Vanguard. “The past five years, although entirely welcome from an investment standpoint, is clearly unsustainable.”        “我认为这就是低回报环境开始的感觉,”先锋集团(Vanguard)首席经济学家乔·戴维斯(Joe Davis)说。“过去五年虽然从投资的角度来看非常令人愉快,但显然是不可能一直持续下去的。”
                
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