新一轮中美贸易谈判,美国真的有优势吗?_OK阅读网
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新一轮中美贸易谈判,美国真的有优势吗?
As Trade Talks Begin, Trump Sees China’s Economic Weakness as U.S. Strength

来源:纽约时报    2019-01-07 06:39



        WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is cheerleading his way past the economic warning signs that have rattled financial markets and unnerved economists, insisting that the United States has an advantage in a crucial first round of trade negotiations beginning Monday in Beijing.        华盛顿——面对种种令金融市场动荡、令经济学家不安的经济预警信号,唐纳德·特朗普总统仍然一路唱着赞歌。他坚称,美国在周一于北京开始的第一轮至关重要的贸易谈判中具有优势。
        It helps his case that the Labor Department published a jobs report for December that soared past expectations. “China’s not doing very well now,” Trump said in a news conference at the White House, hours after the report came out Friday. “It puts us in a very strong position. We are doing very well.”        劳工部公布的12月份就业报告大大超出预期,这对他的观点有帮助。“中国现在日子不太好过,”特朗普在报告出来几小时后的白宫新闻发布会上说。“这让我们处于非常有利的地位。我们情况很好。”
        Trump is correct about China’s economy, which by several measures appears to be hobbled by U.S. tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. But the president’s confidence about the domestic economy largely ignores what others see as looming threats, including damage from a protracted federal government shutdown, the waning effects of Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut and contagion from China’s pain to U.S. companies, farmers and consumers, Friday’s data notwithstanding.        特朗普对中国经济的看法是正确的。从几个方面来看,美国对价值2500亿美元的中国进口商品征收关税似乎给中国造成了不良影响。但是,尽管有上周五的数据,总统对国内经济的信心在很大程度上忽略了其他人眼中迫在眉睫的威胁,包括联邦政府长期关门造成的损害、特朗普1.5万亿美元减税计划的效应减弱,以及来自中国的损害蔓延至美国企业、农民和消费者。
        Chinese officials appear set to offer a mix of concessions, including reducing some tariffs on U.S. goods, as they try to defuse trade tensions before a March 2 deadline, when tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports will increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. A U.S. delegation of midlevel trade officials will begin two days of talks with their counterparts Monday in Beijing, led by Jeffrey Gerrish, deputy U.S. trade representative, and David Malpass, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for international affairs.        中国官员似乎准备做出一系列让步,包括降低美国商品的一些关税。他们试图在3月2日的最后期限之前缓和贸易紧张局势,届时价值2000亿美元的进口产品关税将从10%提高到25%。一个由美国中层贸易官员组成,由美国副贸易代表杰弗里·格里什(Jeffrey Gerrish)和美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)等人率领的代表团周一将在北京开始为期两天的会谈。
        If the talks are constructive, a senior-level delegation of Chinese officials is expected to travel to Washington within a few weeks to meet with Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s top trade negotiator, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary.        如果谈判具有建设性,一个中国官员的高级代表团预计将在几周内前往华盛顿,会见特朗普的最高贸易谈判代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)和财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)。
        Top administration officials are confident they are in a strong enough position to win significant changes, including an end to China’s practice of forcing U.S. companies to hand over intellectual property and an agreement to buy more agricultural and energy products from the United States.        政府高级官员相信,他们占据了足够的主动,可以赢得重大的改变,包括结束中国强迫美国公司交出知识产权的做法,并且达成一项从美国购买更多农产品和能源产品的协议。
        While such concessions are possible, China trade experts say they are not likely to happen easily or quickly, given the structural and legal changes they would require. That could ultimately set the stage for a protracted fight that goes beyond March 2 and hurts consumer spending, corporate profits and economic growth in America.        尽管让步是可能的,但中国贸易专家表示,考虑到这些让步所需要的结构和法律变化,它们不太可能轻易或迅速发生。这最终可能会导致一场旷日持久的斗争,持续到3月2日以后,损害美国的消费者支出、企业利润和经济增长。
        “The balance of leverage appeared to have shifted in favor of the U.S., with signs that China’s economy was slowing down, but the stock market rout and concerns about a U.S. growth slowdown have restored a more even balance between the two sides,” said Eswar Prasad, a trade expert at Cornell University. “Still, it will be tough sledding for the U.S. and China to reach a deal that is acceptable to both sides.”        “杠杆的平衡似乎已经向有利于美国的方向倾斜,有迹象表明,中国经济正在放缓,但股市暴跌和对美国经济增长放缓的担忧使双方恢复到更为平衡的状态,”康奈尔大学(Cornell University)的贸易专家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。“尽管如此,美国和中国要达成双方都能接受的协议,仍将是一个艰难的过程。”
        He added: “The best that can be hoped for is a cessation of further trade hostilities, with the trade sanctions already implemented by both sides likely to remain in place.”        他补充说:“我们能期待的最好结果是,双方停止进一步的贸易敌对行动,而双方已实施的贸易制裁可能仍将继续。”
        U.S. companies like Apple and FedEx have already attributed lowered revenue estimates to the trade war with China. And many large U.S. companies — like Caterpillar, General Motors and Boeing — view China’s market as critical to future growth.        苹果(Apple)和联邦快递(FedEx)等美国公司将营收预期下调归因于与中国的贸易战。卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)、通用汽车(General Motors)和波音(Boeing)等许多美国大公司都认为中国市场对未来的增长至关重要。
        Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, acknowledged as much Thursday, when he told CNN that there are “a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded next year until we get a deal with China.”        白宫经济顾问委员会主席凯文·哈西特(Kevin Hassett)周四对CNN承认,“很多美国公司在中国有很大销量,明年的他们收益基本上都要降低,直到我们同中国达成协议。”
        In an interview Friday, Hassett, buoyed by employers’ adding 312,000 jobs to payrolls in December, tried to moderate those comments, saying that China’s slowdown “is a problem for Europe, not the United States,” because European countries export more to China than America does. He said that only 1.7 percent of U.S. corporate profits came from sales in China.        在上周五接受采访时,哈西特受到12月份雇主增加了31.2万个就业岗位的鼓舞,试图缓和上述言论,他说,中国经济放缓“是欧洲的问题,不是美国的问题,”因为欧洲国家对中国的出口比美国更多。他说,只有1.7%的美国企业利润来自在中国的销售。
        Yet several economic warning signs are flashing yellow. A closely watched measure of manufacturing fell in December and economic forecasters predict that last year’s boost to consumer spending, aided by Trump’s signature tax cuts, will fade this year. Higher interest rates have also helped cool the housing market nationwide.        然而,一些经济预警信号正在亮起黄灯。一项受到密切关注的制造业指标在12月份出现下滑,经济预测人士预计,特朗普标志性的减税政策去年对消费者支出的提振将在今年减弱。更高的利率造成了全国房地产市场的冷却。
        The potential for economic headwinds, including market concerns over a softening Chinese economy, prompted Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, to say Friday that the Fed would be “patient” with policy decisions, like interest rate increases.        因为可能的经济逆风,包括市场对中国经济走弱的担忧,美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周五表示,美联储将对加息等政策决定保持“耐心”。
        The government shutdown is also expected to exact some economic pain, with about 800,000 federal workers furloughed with no pay and economically essential services such as air travel, which depend on government workers, being crimped. Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating firm, estimated last month that shutting down a fourth of the government could shave $1.2 billion off gross domestic product each week the government is closed. Trump has suggested that he is willing to potentially let the government remain shuttered for more than a year.        政府停摆预计还将导致一些经济阵痛,约80万联邦工作人员停薪休假,经济基础服务受损,如依赖政府雇员的航空旅行服务。评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)上月预计,停摆政府的四分之一可导致政府关停期内,国内生产总值每周削减12亿美元。特朗普表示,他愿意考虑使政府停摆超过一年。
        Farmers who have been relying on an Agriculture Department program to mitigate the effect of the trade war through a special $12 billion subsidy fund are now being left in the lurch. According to a USDA spokesman, farmers who have already certified their 2018 production will receive payments under the Market Facilitation Program, despite the lapse in federal funding. But farmers who have not done so must wait to certify until Farm Service Agency offices reopen when funding is restored.        依赖农业部旨在减轻贸易战影响的120亿美元专项补贴基金项目的农民如今陷入困境。据美国农业部发言人表示,即便联邦资金失效,已验证2018年产出的农民将收到市场促进计划(Market Facilitation Program)款项。但尚未这么做的农民必须要等到资金恢复、农场服务局(Farm Service Agency)办事处重新开放之后才能验证。
        Tax refunds will also not be issued during the shutdown, and taxpayers trying to determine their bill for 2018 will not be able to ask questions of the IRS.        退税也将在停摆期间停止发放,试图确定其2018年账单的纳税人将无法向国税局咨询。
        “I understand that the IRS furloughed nearly 70,000 IRS employees (87.5 percent of the workforce), ceased needed taxpayer services, and stopped issuing tax refunds during the government shutdown,” Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, wrote in a letter to Mnuchin on Friday. “These actions are causing undue hardship to American taxpayers and the IRS civil servants.”        “我了解到国税局已让近7万国税局雇员(全体雇员的87.5%)休假,中止了急需的纳税人服务,并在政府停摆期间停止发放退税,”马萨诸塞州民主党议员、众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)主席理查德·E·尼尔(Richard E. Neal)周五在给马努钦的信中写道。“这些行动正在给美国的纳税人和国税局公务员们造成过多的困难。”
        Investors would love to see a quick resolution to the trade tensions as well. Stocks have gyrated as the trade war has escalated and the S&P 500 is down more than 8 percent from a year ago, its largest annual drop since the 2008 financial crisis. It is down more than 13 percent since the end of October.        投资人士还迫切希望看到贸易紧张关系能快速解决。随着贸易战升级,标准普尔500指数比上年下跌超过8%——自2008年金融危机以来的最大年度跌幅,股市也出现波动。自10月底以来,已下降了超过13%。
        Further drops could increase pressure on Trump — who famously bragged that trade wars are “easy to win” but who views the stock market as a barometer of his economic success — to settle for a quicker deal than he wants.        进一步的下跌可能会给特朗普加压,使他以超出预期的速度更快将其解决——他以吹嘘贸易战“很容易赢”著称,但又将股市视为他经济成功的晴雨表。
        Still, Trump showed no sign of pressure Sunday. “I think that things are going to happen” on a trade deal, Trump told reporters before boarding Marine One on his way to Camp David, where staff officials will discuss the shutdown, China and immigration.        但特朗普周日没有显出压力迹象。在登上海军陆战队一号前往戴维营之前,特朗普告诉记者,就贸易协议而言,“我认为事情会发生的”。白宫幕僚将在戴维营探讨停摆、中国和移民问题。
        He also celebrated the December jobs numbers, and mocked Wall Street analysts for being surprised by them. “It didn’t shock me,” Trump said. “I know what’s going on.”        他还称赞了12月的就业数字,嘲笑了对此感到意外的华尔街分析师们。“没有惊到我,”特朗普说。“我知道在发生什么。”
                
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