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特朗普和中国打这场贸易战值得吗?
As Trump Moves to End Trade War With China, Business Asks: Was It Worth It?

来源:纽约时报    2019-03-06 02:35



        WASHINGTON — The pain of President Trump’s trade war with China may soon be over, but American businesses and farmers are left wondering whether it was worth the trouble.        华盛顿——特朗普总统与中国的贸易战之痛或许很快将结束,但美国企业和农民却在纳闷,这样麻烦是否值得。
        Negotiations with the Chinese are continuing, and Mr. Trump could still secure more concessions to balance out a trading relationship he has long criticized as unfair. But details of the emerging deal paint a familiar picture of Beijing making vague promises to change its economic practices that could be easy to delay and difficult to enforce.
        与中方的谈判仍在继续,特朗普还可以获得更多让步,以平衡他长期以来批评为不公平的贸易关系。但即将形成的协议的细节却描绘出一幅似曾相识的画面,北京方面含糊其辞地承诺,将改变它在经济方面的一些做法,但这些承诺很容易拖延,而且难以执行。
        While previous administrations have tried to cajole China into changing its behavior, Mr. Trump has used a blunt instrument: deploying punishing tariffs to win concessions. That has given the United States a remarkable amount of leverage, but it has also taken a heavy toll on farmers, automakers, manufacturers and other businesses with exposure to China. Those businesses have faced higher costs, reduced access to the Chinese market and retaliation, including tariffs on American goods. Some farmers have permanently lost customers and contracts in China, while the profits — and share prices — of multinational businesses have taken a significant hit.        之前的美国政府都是通过劝诱让中国改变它的行为,特朗普却使用了一件钝器:加征惩罚性关税来赢取让步。这固然给了美国相当多的筹码,但也使农民、车厂、各种制造商及其他在中国有业务的企业付出了沉重的代价。这些企业遭遇了成本上涨,进入中国市场的机会减少以及报复措施,包括对美国产品施加的关税。一些农民永久失去了客户和中国的合同,而跨国公司的利润以及股价均遭受重创。
        Now, with the United States poised to roll back most of its tariffs as the two countries close in on a final agreement, the question is whether the costs of Mr. Trump’s deal-making outweigh the benefits.        现在,随着两国即将达成最终协议,美国准备取消加征的大部分关税,问题在于特朗普的交易成本是否超过了收益。
        “Can we go back to the pretariff days? Yes, we can,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “Have we moved the bar since the beginning of the Trump administration? The answer is no.”        “我们能回到关税前的日子吗?是的,我们能,”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常驻学者史剑道(Derek Scissors)说。“自特朗普政府执政以来我们移除了障碍吗?答案是否定的。”
        Over the past several weeks, American and Chinese negotiators have been in almost constant contact over phone and video conferencing to hammer out the terms of a deal. China has agreed to drop the retaliatory tariffs it imposed to counter Mr. Trump’s levies on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods and to provide greater access to its markets for cars, beef, chemicals and other products.        过去几周里,双方的谈判人员几乎一直通过电话或视频会议进行接触,敲定协议条款。中方已同意降低为反击特朗普对2500亿美元中国商品征收关税而施加的报复性关税,并对汽车、牛肉、化工及其他产品提供更多的市场准入机会。
        Beijing has pledged to have Chinese companies purchase hundreds of billions of dollars worth of liquefied natural gas, soybeans and other goods over a number of years to appease Mr. Trump’s focus on the bilateral trade deficit. China is also rewriting some of its laws and regulations to better protect foreign intellectual property, ban the forced transfer of foreign technology to Chinese business partners and codify equal treatment of foreign companies.        北京方面承诺,中国企业将在数年内采购数千亿美元的液化天然气、大豆及其他产品,以安抚特朗普对双边贸易赤字的关注。中国还将修订一些法律法规,以便更好地保护外国知识产权,禁止将外国技术强迫转让给中方企业伙伴的做法,并把平等对待外国企业写入法律。
        In return, China wants Mr. Trump to drop all the tariffs he imposed over the past year, which have begun to hamper the Chinese economy. While any final decision will fall to the president, people familiar with the negotiations say the United States is willing to scrap tariffs on at least $200 billion worth of goods, if not all.        作为回报,中国希望特朗普放弃过去一年征收的所有关税,这些关税已开始损害中国经济。虽然任何最终决定将取决于总统本人,但了解谈判情况的人士表示,美国愿意取消至少2000亿美元商品的关税,如果不是全部的话。
        The tariff détente would help large and small companies that have struggled under the weight of 10 percent and 25 percent levies, but the trade war has already come at a cost. Several recent studies have shown modest but growing damage to the United States economy from the trade war, including the retaliatory tariffs other countries have leveled against American exports.        关税的缓和能帮到一直在10%到25%的税赋重担下挣扎的大小企业,但贸易战已经造成了损失。近期几项研究显示,贸易战对美国经济的损害虽然不大,却日益严重,包括其他国家对美国出口商品征收的报复性关税。
        And contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that the Chinese are paying the tariffs, several studies show they are being passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices on imported goods.        与特朗普声称的关税由中国承担的说法相反,几项研究表明,这些关税正以进口商品价格上涨的形式转嫁给美国消费者。
        Mr. Trump’s tariffs “were almost completely passed through into U.S. domestic prices,” the economists Mary Amiti of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stephen J. Redding of Princeton University and David Weinstein of Columbia University wrote in a paper released late last week, “so that the entire incidence of the tariffs fell on domestic consumers and importers up to now, with no impact so far on the prices received by foreign exporters.”        特朗普的关税“几乎完全转嫁到了美国国内物价上”,纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)的玛丽·阿米蒂(Mary Amiti)、普林斯顿大学的史蒂芬·J·雷丁(Stephen J. Redding)和哥伦比亚大学的戴维·韦恩斯坦(David Weinstein)等三位经济学家在上周一起发表的一篇论文里写道,“到目前为止,整个关税的影响都落到了国内消费者和进口商身上,却对外国出口商截至目前所得到的价格没有产生影响。”
        The economists concluded that tariffs had already reduced incomes in the United States by nearly $7 billion, and that the total cost to the economy had been even larger, because of price increases. By the end of last year, they estimate, the tariffs were costing consumers and importers a total of nearly $4.5 billion a month.        三位经济学家总结称,关税已使美国的收入减少了近70亿美元,而且由于价格上涨,经济的总体成本更大了。他们估计,截止去年年底,关税给消费者和进口商每月造成的损失接近45亿美元。
        That effect is relatively small for a $20.5 trillion economy, but the researchers expect it to expand if the tariffs persist, as companies reroute supply chains to avoid tariffs in the United States and abroad.        对于规模达20.5万亿美元的经济体而言,这样的影响相对较小,但研究人员预计,如果关税持续,随着企业纷纷将供应链改道以避免美国及国外的关税,损失还将扩大。
        Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated last week that Mr. Trump’s tariffs on imports from China have raised consumer price inflation by 0.1 percent in the United States. Researchers from the New York Fed estimate that the China tariffs — along with tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines and solar panels — boosted consumer prices by about a third of a percent last year.        旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的研究人员上周估计称,特朗普对中国进口商品的关税已使美国消费者物价上涨了0.1%。纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)的研究人员估计,中国的关税——以及对钢材、铝材、洗衣机和太阳能板征收的关税——使去年的消费者物价升高了约0.3%。
        Another study, from the researchers Ned Hill and Fran Stewart at Ohio State University, found that the economic drag from tariffs had at least partially offset stimulus from Mr. Trump’s signature tax cuts. Rising trade uncertainty has chilled business investment growth: The researchers surveyed nearly 500 Ohio manufacturers and found that two-thirds of them said they were hurt by tariffs.        俄亥俄州立大学(Ohio State University)研究员内德·希尔(Ned Hill)和弗兰·斯图尔特(Fran Stewart)的另一项研究表明,关税对经济的拖累至少部分抵消了特朗普标志性减税政策的刺激效果。不断上升的贸易不确定性抑制了企业投资增长:研究人员调查了俄亥俄州近500家制造商,其中三分之二表示受到关税伤害。
        A survey from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the University of Chicago and Stanford University in January concluded that tariffs reduced business investment in the United States by 1.2 percent — or $32.5 billion — in 2018.        今年1月,亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)、芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)和斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的经济学家进行了一项调查,得出的结论是,2018年,关税令美国商业投资降低了1.2%,即325亿美元。
        That price might be worth it, business groups and China analysts say, if the administration makes a deal that substantively transforms Chinese industrial policy and gives American companies fair and reciprocal access to the Chinese market.        商业团体和中国问题分析人士说,如果政府达成一项能从实质上改变中国产业政策,并让美国企业公平互惠地进入中国市场的协议,那么这个代价可能是值得的。
        “We oppose the use of tariffs, period,” said Myron Brilliant, the executive vice president and head of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “But we are at the same time supportive of this administration trying to get a deal that is not just consequential for today but will have lasting impact on the relationship and put the U.S.-China relationship on a better track.”        “我们反对使用关税,就这样,”美国商会(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)执行副会长、国际事务负责人迈伦·布里连特(Myron Brilliant)说。“但与此同时,我们支持本届政府努力达成一项不仅对今天具有重要意义,而且将对双边关系产生持久影响的协议,让美中关系走上更好的轨道。”
        “Absent a deal, I think everyone loses,” he added.        “如果不能达成协议,我认为所有人都是输家,”他补充说。
        But the deal under discussion, which could be wrapped up by late March, appears likely to fall short of the high expectations the Trump administration initially set and the significant changes critics say are needed to counter years of unfair economic behavior by China.        但目前仍在讨论、可能于3月底之前完成的协议,似乎没有达到特朗普政府最初设定的高预期,也不会有批评者所说的对抗中国多年来不公平经济行为的重大改变。
        China promised to make its economy more market-oriented when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and it has reiterated those promises many times since then, including in 2013.        中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织时承诺要让经济更加市场化,此后多次重申这一承诺,包括在2013年。
        Yet today the state has an even heavier hand in the economy than a decade ago, said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The ruling Communist Party can influence private companies at will, and foreign companies face a variety of forms of discrimination that advantage Chinese firms.        然而,彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员罗迪(Nicholas Lardy)表示,与10年前相比,如今政府在经济中扮演着更重要的角色。执政的共产党可以随意影响民营企业,而外国企业则面临着各种偏袒中国企业的歧视。
        Now, China is offering changes to its laws, including a significant rewrite of a law governing foreign investment. This is a necessary first step, Mr. Lardy said, but rewriting the laws may not do much good when the party is fundamentally above the law.        现在,中国提出修改法律,包括对外商投资法进行重大修改。罗迪说,这是必要的第一步,但如果党从根本上凌驾于法律之上,修改法律可能不会有多大作用。
        “Talking about rule of law and protecting property rights is one thing, but actually following through on it is a very difficult thing for a system where the party has been so deeply embedded for a long time and the rule of law is secondary,” Mr. Lardy said.        “谈论法治和保护产权是一回事,但实际上,党已经长期深植于整个制度之中,法治居于次要地位,因此贯彻法治和保护产权是非常困难的事情,”罗迪说。
        China experts say certain provisions of the deal, including the administration’s plan for airing disputes through an extensive series of meetings at various levels of government, sound similar to past economic dialogues during the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama.        中国问题专家表示,该协议的某些条款看上去与乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)和贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府时期的经济对话类似,比如政府计划通过政府各层级的一系列会议来阐述争端。
        “We won’t know until we see what the deal looks like, but it’s feeling eerily familiar,” said Scott Kennedy, a China scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.        “直到看到协议我们才能知道它是什么样子,但它给人一种似曾相识的感觉,”战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的中国问题学者甘思德(Scott Kenedy)说。
        Critics of the evolving deal have also said it suffers from a lack of specificity on certain provisions that China uses to systematically block foreign companies. For example, China is pledging not to discriminate against foreign companies when it sets new standards for technological equipment. And it is promising not to selectively use its antitrust laws against foreign companies or subsidize certain high-tech industries. But the deal under discussion does not provide a specific list of subsidies that would be curtailed or ended, so the Chinese may just be able to rebrand them and evade the letter of the agreement.        对于这个不断演变中的协议持批评态度的人还表示,中国用来系统性封杀外国企业的某些条款缺乏明确性,这对该协议也是不利的。例如,中国承诺在制定技术设备新标准时不会歧视外国企业。它还承诺,不会选择性地对外国企业使用反垄断法,也不会补贴某些高科技行业。但正在讨论中的这份协议没有就可能被削减或终止的补贴提供具体清单,因此中国可能只需避开协议中的文字,重新包装这些补贴。
        Getting China to commit to changes on these issues would be a herculean task for any administration, Mr. Kennedy said. But the effort has been made harder by Mr. Trump’s rush for a deal and his desire to act unilaterally rather than with other countries.        甘思德说,让中国承诺在这些问题上做出改变,对任何政府来说都是一项艰巨的任务。但由于特朗普急于达成协议,以及他希望采取单边行动,而不是与其他国家合作,这一努力变得更加艰难。
        “It’s difficult no matter what,” Mr. Kennedy said. “We tried multilateralism and patient integration, and that didn’t go smoothly either.”        “无论如何都很难,”甘思德说。“我们尝试过多边主义和耐心的整合,但进展也不顺利。”
                
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