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金正恩会恢复核试验和导弹试验吗?
Will Kim Jong-un Return to Brinkmanship? Weak Economy Is Forcing His Hand

来源:纽约时报    2019-03-07 11:03



        SEOUL, South Korea — When the armored train carrying Kim Jong-un back from his summit meeting with President Trump in Vietnam reached Pyongyang Station at 3:08 a.m. Tuesday, throngs of flower-waving North Koreans greeted their leader with “boundless emotions and excitement,” the country’s state-run media said.        韩国首尔——金正恩在越南与特朗普总统举行峰会后,乘装甲列车返回朝鲜,列车在周二凌晨3点08分抵达平壤站,据朝鲜官方媒体报道,“热烈欢呼的欢迎群众”挥舞着鲜花迎接他们的领导人。
        But Mr. Kim returned home empty-handed — without relief from international sanctions — prompting the question of what he will do next: Particularly, will he resume his nuclear and missile brinkmanship to reassert his leverage?        但金正恩是空手而归的——国际制裁并没有解除,这就引发了一个问题:他下一步将干什么?尤其是,他会为了重申自己的影响力恢复核武器和导弹边缘政策吗?
        The revelation on Wednesday that North Korea had started rebuilding the partly dismantled facilities at Tongchang-ri, where the country tests technologies for its intercontinental ballistic missiles, raised the specter that Mr. Kim was returning to his provocative behavior.        周三有消息披露,朝鲜已开始重建东仓里被部分拆除的核设施,朝鲜曾在那里测试洲际弹道导弹技术。这引起了人们对金正恩正在恢复其挑衅行为的担忧。
        But experts on North Korea say Mr. Kim may be boxed in: He returned home without sanctions relief amid strong signs that the North Korean economy is continuing to contract. The deepening economic trouble may force the country to return to the negotiating table.        但朝鲜问题专家说,金正恩的手脚可能已被束缚:他是在未能消除制裁的情况下回国的,同时有强烈的迹象表明,朝鲜经济正在继续萎缩。日益深重的经济困难可能会迫使朝鲜回到谈判桌上来。
        In restarting operations at its missile technology site, North Korea is seeking “to increase its leverage before the next round of talks,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.        首尔东国大学研究朝鲜问题的教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)说,导弹技术设施的重新启动是朝鲜寻求“在下一轮谈判之前增加筹码”的做法。
        “I don’t think the North will resume missile tests anytime soon and risk the resumption of United States-South Korea joint military exercises and even the talk of a military option by the Americans,” he said.        “我认为朝鲜不会冒着美韩恢复联合军事演习,甚至美国人谈论军事选择的风险,马上恢复导弹试验,”他说。
        The two-day Hanoi summit meeting ended last week without any agreement on the terms of denuclearizing North Korea, dashing Mr. Kim’s hopes that he could persuade Washington to lift the most punishing sanctions against his country in return for a partial dismantlement of its nuclear program.        为期两天的河内峰会已在上周结束,未就朝鲜无核化条件达成任何协议,使金正恩的希望化为泡影,他原本希望说服华盛顿解除对朝鲜制裁中最严厉的部分,以换取朝鲜部分放弃其核计划。
        Officially, both sides remain committed to dialogue, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressing hope that the United States will send a delegation to North Korea “in the next couple weeks.” And this week, Washington canceled two major joint military exercises with South Korea to keep the diplomatic momentum alive.        在正式场合,双方仍表示将致力于对话。美国国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)表示了美国将在“未来几周”派一个代表团去朝鲜的希望。为保持外交势头,华盛顿已在本周取消了两次与韩国的大型联合军事演习。
        But in a telling sign of disappointment, the official Korean Central News Agency’s report on Mr. Kim’s return home made no mention of “comprehensive and epoch-making results” that it had earlier said Mr. Kim was discussing with Mr. Trump in Hanoi.        但这次峰会令人失望的一个明显迹象是,朝鲜中央通讯社关于金正恩回国的官方报道没有提“全面、划时代的结果”,而早些时候的官方报道曾说,金正恩正在河内与特朗普希望谈出这种结果。
        ”The Hanoi summit was a knockout defeat for Kim Jong-un,” said Lee Seong-hyon, an analyst at the Sejong Institute near Seoul. “The Kim-Trump romance may be short-lived, especially if Trump determines that playing hard ball and cornering Kim Jong-un is popular in the run-up to his next election campaign. In Hanoi, Trump learned how desperate Kim is to ease sanctions.”        “河内峰会对金正恩来说是一次惨败,”首尔附近的世宗研究所(Sejong Institute)分析师李成贤(Lee Seong-hyon)说。“特朗普与金正恩的浪漫史可能是短暂的,尤其是如果特朗普认为,与金正恩来硬的,将其逼入绝境,能在下次总统大选之前博得人心的话。特朗普在河内了解到了金正恩多么渴望放松制裁。”
        After the breakdown of the Hanoi talks, Mr. Kim faced growing doubts at home that he could deliver on his promise to revive his country’s troubled economy and keep his long-suffering people from having to “tighten their belt again.”        河内会谈破裂后,金正恩在国内面临越来越多的怀疑:他能否兑现自己的承诺,重振陷入困境的朝鲜经济,让长期忍受苦难的朝鲜人民不必“再勒紧裤带”。
        Mr. Kim may engineer a political purge to keep the elites under control and reassert his authority, Mr. Lee said. He may also reshuffle his negotiating team, replacing Kim Yong-chol, a former spy chief who has led negotiations with Washington, with more seasoned Foreign Ministry diplomats, Mr. Lee said.        李成贤说,金正恩可能会策划一场政治清洗,以控制精英阶层,重申他的权威。他还可能重组自己的谈判团队,用外交部经验更丰富的外交官来取代金英哲(Kim Yong-chol),这位前情报机构负责人一直是与华盛顿谈判的牵头人。
        “The greatest achievement” of the Hanoi summit meeting “was to clearly prove that there is no potential for convergence between the current North Korean and American trajectories toward North Korea’s denuclearization,” said Ha Young-sun, a prominent South Korean expert on North Korea, in a column posted on Global North Korea, a Seoul-based website specializing in the North.        河内峰会的“最大成就是,它清楚地证明了在通往朝鲜无核化道路上,朝鲜和美国目前的走法没有汇合的可能”,韩国著名朝鲜问题专家夏永善(Ha Young-sun,音)在首尔专门讨论朝鲜问题的网站Global North Korea上发表文章说。
        If North Korea does not correct its course, “the regime will face a second ‘Arduous March,’” Mr. Ha said, referring to a famine in the 1990s that may have killed millions of North Koreans.        如果朝鲜不改变自己的方向,“这个政权将面临第二次‘苦难的行军’,”夏永善说。他指的是20世纪90年代该国经历的一场可能导致了数百万朝鲜人死亡的饥荒。
        It remains difficult to measure how much North Korea is hurt by sanctions. The United Nations has warned that the country is benefiting from sanctions loopholes, conducting ship-to-ship transfers of oil and other banned goods, with the help of Chinese and Russian entities.        目前仍难以衡量制裁对朝鲜究竟造成了多大的伤害。联合国警告,朝鲜正在从制裁漏洞中捞到好处,在中国和俄罗斯的实体的帮助下,进行石油和其他禁运商品的船对船移交。
        But Mr. Kim’s insistence on sanctions relief during his meeting with Mr. Trump suggested that North Korea has begun feeling pains of sanctions in a way it had never before or that Mr. Kim sees sanctions as the biggest obstacle to his ambitious plan to rebuild the economy.        但金正恩在与特朗普见面期间坚持要求放松制裁的做法表明,朝鲜已开始以前所未有的方式感受到了制裁带来的痛苦,或者金正恩已把制裁看作重建经济这一雄伟计划的最大障碍。
        On Wednesday, United Nations and Red Cross officials said that North Korea’s food production last year had fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, as a prolonged heat wave, along with typhoon and floods, caused the food harvest to drop 9 percent.        联合国和红十字会的官员周三说,朝鲜去年的粮食产量是十多年来最低,去年的持续高温、台风和洪水导致粮食收成减少了9%。
        Maize yields fell more than 30 percent from average levels in some areas, and rice prices are likely to rise this year, aggravating the food security situation, Margareta Wahlstrom, the president of the Swedish Red Cross, told Reuters.        瑞典红十字会会长玛格丽塔·沃尔斯特伦(Margareta Wahlstrom)对路透社说,朝鲜部分地区的玉米产量比平均水平降低了逾30%,大米价格今年也可能上涨,使粮食安全问题恶化。
        That has resulted in a “significant food gap,” leaving around 3.8 million North Koreans in urgent need of humanitarian assistance worth $120 million, according to Tapan Mishra, the United Nations resident coordinator in the North, Reuters said.        据路透社报道,联合国驻朝鲜协调员塔潘·米什拉(Tapan Mishra)说,这已经导致了“严重的粮食缺口”,有大约380万朝鲜人急需相当于1.2亿美元的人道主义援助。
        Since taking power in 2011, Mr. Kim has focused on reviving the economy, allowing more market activities, as well as kicking off a building boom in Pyongyang and in potential tourist zones on the country’s east coast and near its scenic Mount Baekdu. At the same time, he accelerated his country’s nuclear and missile program, proudly announcing in 2017 that he had completed nuclear-armed ICBMs.        自2011年上台以来,金正恩一直致力于振兴经济,他允许了更多的市场活动,并在平壤以及朝鲜东海岸和风景秀丽的白头山附近等有旅游潜力的地区掀起了一场建设热潮。与此同时,他也加快了朝鲜的核项目和导弹项目,并在2017年自豪地宣布,他已经实现了拥有带核弹头的洲际弹道导弹的目标。
        But it came with a heavy cost.        但这也有沉重的代价。
        Since North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in 2016, the United Nations Security Council has drastically tightened the noose around the North Korean economy, banning all of its key exports, such as coal, textiles and fisheries, and limiting its ability to import oil.        自从朝鲜2016年进行第四次核试验以来,联合国安理会已对朝鲜经济采取了断然措施,禁止了其所有的关键出口,比如煤炭、纺织品和渔业产品的出口,并限制了朝鲜进口石油的能力。
        After steady growth under Mr. Kim, the country’s economy contracted 3.5 percent in 2017 because of sanctions, according to South Korea’s central bank. It may have contracted 5 percent last year, South Korean economists say.        据韩国央行的数据,朝鲜经济在金正恩领导下出现稳步增长后,由于制裁,在2017年收缩了3.5%。韩国经济学家说,朝鲜经济去年可能收缩了5%。
        North Korean exports to China, which account for more than 93 percent of the North’s external trade, plummeted 88 percent to $210 million last year, according to Chinese customs data.        朝鲜对中国的出口占朝鲜对外贸易的93%以上。据中国海关的数据,朝鲜对中国的出口去年骤减了88%,降至2.1亿美元。
        The widening trade deficit with China — it grew 30 percent last year — threatens the country’s hard currency reserves and its ability to stock its markets and state-run stores with Chinese imports to keep inflation in check, analysts said.        朝鲜与中国不断扩大的贸易逆差去年增长了30%,分析人士表示,这让朝鲜的硬通货储备受到威胁,也让朝鲜为市场和国营商店提供中国进口商品、从而遏制通货膨胀的能力受到威胁。
        During the Hanoi summit meeting, Mr. Kim made a bold offer by North Korean standards. He offered to dismantle its facilities at Yongbyon, which his country has operated as its main nuclear research and nuclear fuel production complex since the 1980s. In return, he asked Mr. Trump to lift the sanctions imposed since 2016 that have strangled the North Korean economy.        河内峰会期间,金正恩提出了一个按朝鲜标准来看属于大胆的提议。他提出拆除位于宁边的核设施。该设施自20世纪80年代以来一直是朝鲜主要的核研究和核燃料生产基地。他要求特朗普解除自2016年以来实施的制裁措施作为回报,这些制裁措施窒息了朝鲜的经济。
        But Mr. Trump demanded that the North do more, seeking a more comprehensive denuclearization agreement, rather than an incremental deal in which Washington give up the sanctions leverage it has built over the years.        但特朗普要求朝鲜采取更多的行动,他寻求的是一项更全面的无核化协议,而不是循序渐进的交易,让华盛顿放弃多年来建立起来的制裁优势。
        “I’d much rather do it right than do it fast,” Mr. Trump said.        “我宁愿把这件事做好,而不是做快,”特朗普说。
        His strategy stymies Mr. Kim’s plans to improve the economy and strengthen the legitimacy of his family’s dynastic rule. But time is not necessarily on Washington’s side, Mr. Koh said.        特朗普的策略阻碍了金正恩改善经济、加强金氏王朝统治合法性的计划。但时间不一定对华盛顿有利,高有焕说。
        “Sanctions certainly hurt, but they will not make the regime collapse or surrender,” he said. “As talks remain stalemated, the North will keep running its nuclear program and produce more fissile materials for more nuclear warheads.”        “制裁当然会伤害朝鲜,但制裁不会让朝鲜政权垮台或投降,”他说。“随着谈判陷入僵局,朝鲜将继续自己的核计划,为更多的核弹头生产更多的裂变材料。”
                
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