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反击美国关税,中国有哪些选择?
Trump Could Raise Tariffs on China. Here’s How China Could Respond.

来源:纽约时报    2019-05-10 10:22



        A week ago, the United States and China looked as if they were going to reach a deal to end their trade war. Today, they are trying to salvage their many months of negotiations.        一周前,美国和中国看起来好像就要达成一项结束贸易战的协议。如今,他们正试图挽回两国长达数月的谈判努力。
        Vice Premier Liu He, a senior Chinese economic policy maker, is set to begin two days of negotiations in Washington on Thursday aimed at heading off an escalation. On Sunday, President Trump accused China of trying to renegotiate the nearly finished trade deal and threatened to impose more tariffs on Friday. Chinese officials have said they would respond, without specifying how. The prospect of a deepening trade war between the world’s two largest economies has scared investors and darkened the global economic outlook.        中国国务院副总理、高级经济政策制定者刘鹤将于周四在华盛顿开始为期两天的谈判,以阻止事态升级。上周日,特朗普总统指责中国试图要对几乎已经完成的贸易协议进行重新谈判,并威胁要在本周五上调关税。中国官员表示,他们将做出回应,但没有具体说明如何回应。全球两个最大经济体之间的贸易战不断加剧的可能性吓坏了投资者,给全球经济的前景蒙上了阴影。
        China has strongly denied that it reneged on anything. “Over the past one year’s negotiation, our sincerity and kindness is obvious,” Gao Feng, a Commerce Ministry spokesman, said at a news briefing on Thursday. “Negotiations are the process of exchanging ideas, solving problems and reaching consensus. The two sides having different views is normal.”        中国坚决否认自己在任何条款上食言。“一年多来,我们推动谈判的诚意和善意有目共睹,”商务部发言人高峰在周四的新闻发布会上说。“谈判本身就是一个交换意见、解决问题、达成共识的过程,双方有不同观点是正常的。”
        China has options if Mr. Trump goes ahead with his threat, including ways to strike at American businesses that go beyond tariffs.        如果特朗普兑现自己的威胁,中国有几种反制选择,包括用关税以外的手段打击美国企业。
        “We expect China to quickly retaliate with matching tariffs,” said Jake Parker, a vice president in Beijing for the U.S.-China Business Council, a business advocacy group representing 200 mostly large American companies that do business with China. “We are also advising our members to prepare for increased customs scrutiny, regulatory enforcement at the local level, and diversification away from U.S. products.”        “我们预计中国将迅速采取对等的关税措施进行报复,”美中贸易全国委员会(US-China Business Council)中国区事务副会长彭捷宁(Jake Parker)说,该委员会是一个商业倡导团体,代表200家在中国做生意的美国大公司。“我们也在建议我们的成员,对海关加强审查、地方政府监管执法,以及避开美国产品的多元化转移做好准备。”
        Still, Beijing’s choices are painful and could hurt the Chinese economy just as much as they could hurt the United States.        不过,北京的选择是痛苦的,这些选择在伤害美国经济的同时,可能同样会伤害中国经济。
        President Trump said on Sunday that American tariffs of 10 percent on $200 billion in Chinese goods, imposed last September, would rise to 25 percent on Friday. The tariffs would take effect just after midnight on Thursday, meaning the United States could wake up on Friday to an even more damaging trade war. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday that the tariffs might be reconsidered if Beijing restored what the United States regards as previous Chinese commitments, and made progress beyond them.        特朗普总统周日说,美国去年9月开始对价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品征收的10%的关税,将在周五上调到25%。加征的关税将于周四午夜过后生效,这意味着美国可能会在周五醒来时意识到一场更具破坏性的贸易战已经到来。美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)曾在周一表示,如果北京恢复美国认为是中国此前的承诺,并在此基础上向前推进的话,可能会重新考虑上调关税。
        The president also threatened to put tariffs on another $325 billion in Chinese goods, without specifying when.        特朗普还威胁要对价值3250亿美元的更多中国商品加征关税,但没有给出具体时间。
        China’s obvious choice would be higher, and possibly wider, tariffs.        中国的明显选择是提高对美国产品的关税,并可能扩大征收关税的范围。
        It could raise the retaliatory tariffs that it imposed on American-made goods last autumn. When President Trump imposed his 10 percent tariffs, Beijing responded by imposing a range of tariffs, from 5 percent to 25 percent, on $60 billion a year of American goods. That covered about two-fifths of Chinese imports from the United States.        中国可以提高去年秋天对美国制造的商品征收的报复性关税。在特朗普总统宣布对中国产品征收10%的关税后,北京方面做出的反应是,对每年600亿美元的美国商品征收税率从5%到25%不等的关税。这些商品占中国从美国进口商品总值的约40%。
        China could also revive import barriers specifically aimed at some of the states that supported Mr. Trump in the 2016 election. In December, amid improved chances for a trade deal, China resumed buying American soybeans after it stopped buying them last summer. China also removed the 25 percent tariff that it had imposed last summer on American-made cars and sport utility vehicles.        中国还可以重启针对一些在2016年大选中支持特朗普的州的进口壁垒。去年12月,随着达成贸易协议的可能性提高,中国恢复了购买美国大豆,之前,中国在去年夏天停止购买美国大豆。中国也取消了去年夏天对美国制造的汽车和运动型多用途车征收的25%的关税。
        For China, the problem with retaliatory tariffs is that they might not be enough to persuade Washington to relent. China has worked to diversify its economy, but it still depends heavily on exporting manufactured goods abroad, including to the United States. While some American businesses would be pinched by retaliatory Chinese tariffs, the broader economic impact on the United States could be more limited.        对中国来说,报复性关税的问题在于,这些关税可能不足以说服华盛顿缓和态度。虽然中国一直在努力将自己的经济多元化,但其经济仍严重依赖向海外出口工业产品,包括美国。虽然中国的报复性关税会让一些美国企业受到打击,但对美国更广泛经济的影响会更加有限。
        Tariffs are also only applied to a small portion of the prices consumers pay for purchases, so American shoppers wouldn’t see big changes in price tags.        关税也只会影响消费者购物所付价格的一小部分,因此,美国消费者不会看到商品标价出现太大变化。
        China could broaden its tariffs to cover the one-third of its imports from the United States that it has not yet penalized. These are mainly semiconductors and Boeing aircraft. But Chinese companies need the semiconductors, and there are few rival producers elsewhere for some of them. They would simply have to pay the tariffs and become less competitive.        中国可以扩大关税征收范围,把尚未受到惩罚性关税影响的美国进口商品的三分之一包括进来。这些主要是半导体和波音飞机。但中国企业需要半导体,而且其中一些半导体,除了美国,没有其他具有竞争力的供应商。中国企业只能支付这些关税,让自己的竞争力下降。
        Putting tariffs on Boeing aircraft poses the same dilemma for Beijing. It would force Chinese airlines to buy from Airbus, the only real alternative supplier. Airbus would then be able to charge much higher prices.        对波音飞机征收关税让北京面临同样的两难选择。关税会迫使中国的航企从唯一能替代波音的空客购买飞机。这令空客能收取更高的价格。
        Another option is for the Chinese government to encourage the country’s consumers to boycott American products, or to allow such boycotts to be organized at a grass-roots level. China has used this weapon during foreign policy disputes with South Korea and Japan over the past decade.        中国政府的另一个选择是,鼓励本国消费者抵制美国产品,或允许基层民众组织此类抵制活动。在过去的十年里,中国与韩国和日本发生外交政策争端时,曾使用这种武器。
        But once unleashed, Chinese nationalism could be hard to contain. If a boycott led to anti-American protests in the streets, Beijing’s ability to reach deals with the United States would be constrained. A boycott also could hurt China’s consumers, by limiting their choices, and hurt the Chinese workers who make American-branded cars, assemble iPhones and brew Starbucks lattes.        但中国的民族主义情绪一旦被释放出来,可能会难以控制。如果抵制美货的做法在街头引发反美抗议的话,北京与美国达成协议的能力将受到限制。抵制美货的做法也可能会损害中国消费者的利益,因为这会限制消费者的选择,同时会损害生产美国品牌的汽车、组装iPhone和调制星巴克拿铁的中国工人的利益。
        If China really wants to fight back hard, it has other options. But all of them have big potential drawbacks.        如果中国真想大力反击的话,它也有其他的选择。但这些选择都有可能存在很大的弊端。
        It could delay imports from the United States through elaborate customs inspections and quarantines. China temporarily delayed last year its imports of Lincoln sport utility vehicles by the Ford Motor Company and apples, oranges and cherries from American farmers. It could also send inspectors to check out the business licenses and operations.        中国可以通过复杂的海关检查和检疫措施,拖延进口美国商品。中国去年就曾暂时拖延了从福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Company)进口林肯(Lincoln)运动型多用途车,以及从美国农民进口苹果、桔子和樱桃。中国政府还可以派检查员去检查在华美企的营业执照和经营情况。
        If China wanted to get Mr. Trump’s attention in a big way, it could outright hinder the global supply chain. China makes a huge amount of the parts and components that American companies need to produce their finished products. Many American companies have asked trade officials for exemptions from the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods, contending that they are heavily dependent on these products. Lou Jiwei, a former finance minister of China with many connections to the Chinese leadership, suggested at a conference last September that Chinese officials might study the filings and block exports of some of these products.        如果中国想大规模地引起特朗普的注意的话,可以直接给全球供应链制造障碍。中国制造了美国公司生产成品所需的大量零部件。许多美国公司向贸易官员提出申请,要求对它们豁免特朗普政府对中国商品征收的关税,声称它们严重依赖中国零部件。与中国领导层关系密切的前财政部长楼继伟在去年9月的一次会议上曾建议,中国官员可以研究一下这些申请书,并阻止其中一些产品的出口。
        That would disrupt corporate supply chains. But it could also permanently damage China’s reputation as a reliable supplier for practically every large company in the West. Foreign companies are already re-evaluating their dependence on China as a manufacturing hub.        这将扰乱企业的供应链。但也会永久性损害中国作为几乎每家西方大公司可信赖供应商的声誉。外国公司已经在重新评估它们对中国作为制造业中心的依赖性。
        Finally, China could let the value of its currency, the renminbi, slide sharply against the dollar. That would make China’s exports less expensive and more competitive in foreign markets, and could partly offset the cost of higher tariffs.        中国还有一个最后的办法,那就是让人民币相对美元大幅贬值。这会让中国出口产品的价格降低,从而在国外市场上更具竞争力,也可以在一定程度上抵消更高关税所带来的成本。
        But letting the renminbi drop could pose the greatest risks of all. It would make oil and other imports more expensive in China, fanning Chinese inflation at a time when prices are already starting to rise. And if a falling currency prompts Chinese companies and families to evade limits on moving their money overseas, a flood of outbound money could destabilize China’s financial system.        但是,让人民币贬值可能会造成所有风险中最大的一个。这会让石油和其他进口产品在中国变得更贵,在价格已经开始上涨之际加剧中国的通货膨胀。而且,如果不断贬值的人民币促使中国企业和家庭规避政府对资金转移海外的限制,大量资金外流可能会破坏中国金融体系的稳定。
                
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