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中国崛起如何撬动美澳传统同盟
Australia and the U.S. Are Old Allies. China’s Rise Changes the Equation.

来源:纽约时报    2019-05-14 11:11



        SYDNEY, Australia — To understand why the Trump administration has struggled to build a global coalition of allies in its trade war with China, it helps to understand what is happening in the rolling hills and valleys of Australia’s southeast and southwest coasts.        澳大利亚悉尼——要搞懂特朗普政府在对华贸易战中为什么难以在盟友间建立一个全球联盟,了解一下澳大利亚东南和西南沿海起伏的山峦溪谷间正在发生的事情会有所帮助。
        Vineyards that once made many crisp white wines and fruity red ones popular with American buyers are now also producing more austere reds favored by a segment of a rapidly expanding market of Chinese drinkers. Since 2008, Australia’s wine exports to the United States have fallen 37 percent; exports to China have risen 959 percent.        曾经酿制许多口感清爽的白葡萄酒和果香浓郁的红葡萄酒、深受美国消费者欢迎的葡萄园,如今也在生产更朴素实惠的产品,在迅速扩大的中国饮酒者市场中,它们受到特定顾客群的青睐。自2008年以来,澳大利亚对美国的葡萄酒出口已减少了37%,对中国的出口则增长了959%。
        Around the globe, longtime allies are planning for a world in which the United States is no longer the economic center. For all the frustrations of doing business with China, including opaque government action and allegations of intellectual property theft, the sheer logic of economic geography is proving more significant than historical alliances.        美国在全球各地的长期盟友们正在为一个不再以美国为经济中心的世界做准备。尽管与中国做生意有种种懊恼,包括不透明的政府行动和窃取知识产权的指控,但事实证明,简单的经济地理逻辑比历史上的盟友关系更为重要。
        The tension is evident in many countries with deep economic ties to the United States, including South Korea, Japan and Germany. But perhaps nowhere is the tug more vivid than in Australia, long one of America’s closest allies, which now finds itself pulled in the opposite direction by China, its largest export market.        这种矛盾在许多与美国有着深厚经济联系的国家都很明显,包括韩国、日本和德国。不过,也许没有任何地方比澳大利亚对这种拉动力有更强烈的感受了。澳大利亚长期以来一直是美国最亲密的盟友之一,如今却发现自己被最大的出口市场中国拉向了相反的方向。
        In national elections scheduled for May 18, both major parties have called for a balanced foreign policy, aimed at maintaining the country’s longstanding national security alliance with the United States — while also looking to nurture the relationship with China.        在定于5月18日举行的全国大选中,两个主要政党都呼吁采取平衡的外交政策,以维护澳大利亚与美国长期以来结成的国家安全联盟,同时寻求促进与中国的关系。
        Neither party’s leaders have adopted the bellicose anti-China language of President Trump, nor the use of tariffs to try to force the Chinese to yield to Australian demands. (The Trump administration recently raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent and threatened to expand the tariffs to encompass all Chinese imports.)        两个主要政党的领导人都没有采用特朗普总统那种好战的反华言论,也没有使用关税来迫使中国对澳大利亚的要求做出让步。(特朗普政府最近把对价值2000亿美元中国进口商品的关税从10%提高到25%,并威胁要将这个关税水平扩大到所有的中国进口商品。)
        Australia’s cultural affinity with the United States remains strong. Australian and American troops fought together in World War II, and more recently in Afghanistan and Iraq. The countries’ intelligence agencies share some of their deepest secrets. But in terms of cold hard (Australian) dollars, the nation’s business and political leaders now speak of the world’s two largest economies as equally important partners.        澳大利亚与美国的文化联系仍很强大。两国的军队曾在第二次世界大战中并肩作战,最近还一起出兵阿富汗和伊拉克。两国的情报机构分享着他们的一些最机密的情报。但是,就冰冷无情的金钱而言,澳大利亚的政商领导人现在已把世界上两个最大的经济体作为同等重要的合作伙伴来加以谈论。
        “Our interests are not identical to the U.S.,” Geoff Raby, a former Australian ambassador to China who advises companies doing business in the two countries, said in an interview. “That doesn’t mean we can’t have a close, warm relationship with the United States. But we cannot join the U.S. in a policy premised on China being a strategic competitor.”        “我们的利益与美国不完全一致,”澳大利亚前驻华大使芮捷锐(Geoff Raby)在接受采访时说,他现在给在两国开展业务的企业提供咨询服务。“这并不意味着我们不能与美国有亲密友好的关系。但是,我们不能与美国一道采取把中国作为战略竞争对手为前提的政策。”
        Australia is essentially trying to navigate the world economy as a midsize country maintaining good relations with both superpowers. It is trusting the United States as an ally on national security matters but also knows that its economic future, and present, are tied to China. Australia and China have had a trade agreement since 2015.        澳大利亚本质上是一个设法在世界经济中找到定位的中型国家,想与两个超级大国都保持良好关系。澳大利亚在国家安全事务上相信美国是自己的盟友,但也知道自己经济的现在和未来都与中国紧密相连。自2015年以来,澳大利亚和中国之间一直存在着一项贸易协议。
        China’s huge population and rapid growth will inevitably pull more countries into its economic orbit. But that strong pull also reflects recent steps by the United States to undermine institutions that Americans themselves helped create to guide the global economic system.        中国庞大的人口和快速的增长,将不可避免地把更多的国家拉入其经济轨道。但这种强大的吸引力也反映了美国最近采取的一些步骤,这些步骤破坏了美国人自己帮助建立起来的、旨在指导全球经济体系的制度。
        The Trump administration, for example, has levied steel and aluminum tariffs on close allies, ostensibly on national security grounds; walked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, aimed at creating a trade bloc that could counter Chinese influence; and taken steps to undermine the World Trade Organization, which many smaller countries view as essential to getting a fair shake in global commerce.        例如,特朗普政府以国家安全为由,对关系密切的盟友征收了钢铁和铝制品关税;退出了《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》,该协定旨在建立一个能够抗衡中国影响力的贸易集团;还采取了削弱世界贸易组织的做法,许多较小的国家认为,该组织对它们在全球贸易中获得公平待遇至关重要。
        The incumbent government, led by the prime minister, Scott Morrison, has sought to maintain close ties with both the United States and China. It has passed a law to try to reduce foreign influence in Australian politics, and is pledging increases in spending for defense and cybersecurity.        由总理斯科特·莫里森(Scott Morrison)领导的现任政府一直在寻求与美国和中国都保持密切的关系。澳大利亚通过了一项寻求减少外国对澳大利亚政治施加影响的法律,并承诺增加国防和网络安全支出。
        “Inevitably, in the period ahead, we will be navigating a higher degree of U.S.-China strategic competition,” Mr. Morrison said in a major foreign policy speech late last year.        “不可避免的是,在未来一段时间里,我们将处在一个更高程度的美中战略竞争的环境里,”莫里森去年年底在一次重要的外交政策讲话中说。
        Leaders of the Australian Labor Party, aiming to take power for the first time since 2013, are less friendly to the Trump administration; they embrace economic ties to China while appearing reluctant to be pulled too close in either direction.        澳大利亚工党(Australian Labor Party)领导人对特朗普政府的态度不那么友好,他们的大选目标是自2013年以来重新掌权;他们欣然接受与中国的经济联系,但似乎不愿被拉到与中国或美国过于靠近的位置上去。
        “Differences between our systems and values will inevitably affect the nature of our interactions,” said Penny Wong, a senator expected to be foreign minister if Labor prevails, in a recent appearance. “But those realities include the fact that China will remain important to Australia’s prosperity.”        “我们在制度和价值观上的差异,将不可避免地影响我们互动的性质,”参议员黄英贤(Penny Wong)最近在一个公开场合说。“但这些现实包括中国对澳大利亚的繁荣仍将重要的事实。”如果工党在大选中获胜的话,预计黄英贤将出任外交部长。
        The absence of a full-throated debate reflects a widespread acceptance that the economic relationship with China is too important to mess up.        在这个问题上没有激烈的辩论反映出,人们普遍认为,与中国的经济关系太重要了,不能搞砸。
        “The silence during the campaign is almost eerie,” said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, a think tank in Sydney. “Neither party sees any overwhelmingly partisan advantage in taking the issue on. And both parties know that they could make life harder for themselves with China later because of things said in the heat of the battle.”        “竞选期间在这个问题上的沉默几乎有点吓人,”悉尼智库洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)高级研究员马利德(Richard McGregor)说。“没有一个政党在这个问题上看到了多少压倒性的党派优势。两党都知道,他们在竞选激烈时说的话,可能会让自己以后与中国打交道变得更加困难。”
        A look at the structure of the Australian economy shows why. The most economically consequential exports are commodities, including iron ore, coal and natural gas, which have helped provide raw materials for China’s economic surge over the last three decades. But these natural resource industries are only part of the picture.        看一下澳大利亚的经济结构就知道原因了。澳大利亚最有经济价值的出口是大宗商品,包括铁矿石、煤炭和天然气,这些商品为中国过去30年的经济增长提供了原材料。但这些自然资源产业只是澳大利亚经济的一部分。
        There are about 165,000 Chinese-born students in Australian universities, a crucial revenue source.        澳大利亚大学有约16.5万名在中国出生的学生,他们是大学的一个重要收入来源。
        Buyers from China helped fuel the housing market, at least until recently; tighter restrictions on Chinese citizens’ freedom to move money abroad have been a factor in the sector’s downturn.        来自中国的买家让澳大利亚的房地产市场火热起来,至少直到最近是这样;中国政府更严格地限制公民将资金转移海外的措施,已成为澳洲房地产行业低迷的因素之一。
        The Australian wine industry was once almost entirely focused on domestic production, then expanded to exporting to Britain and then the United States. But in the last 10 years, three forces have combined to make China the largest export market for Australian wine. The ranks of the Chinese middle class have grown astronomically. A 2015 trade agreement between the two countries reduced tariffs. And an extensive marketing campaign has helped ensure that many Chinese consumers would favor Australian labels.        澳大利亚的葡萄酒业曾几乎完全面向国内市场,后来扩大到向英国出口,再后来向美国出口。但在过去10年里,三股力量的结合使中国成为澳大利亚最大的葡萄酒出口市场。中国中产阶级人数巨增。2015年两国签署的贸易协议降低了关税。此外,大规模的营销活动有助于确保许多中国消费者青睐澳大利亚品牌。
        Tony Battaglene, chief executive of Australian Grape and Wine, the industry’s trade group, said: “We don’t want either party to see us taking sides with the other party. It’s delicate political ground, and we don’t want to get caught up in the wash.”        行业贸易团体澳大利亚葡萄与葡萄酒协会(Australian Grape and Wine)首席执行官托尼·巴塔格林尼(Tony Battaglene)说:“我们不希望让任何一个党派认为我们站在他们对手那边。这是一个微妙的政治境地,我们不想卷入其中。”
        In 1994, Catherine Cervasio started a company, Aromababy, that makes organic skin care products in Melbourne. She soon began exporting to Hong Kong and Singapore, and since 2008 has exported to the Chinese mainland, which now accounts for about half of the company’s revenue.        1994年,凯瑟琳·瑟瓦西奥(Catherine Cervasio)在墨尔本创立了Aromababy,生产有机护肤品。她很快就开始向香港和新加坡出口产品,并从2008年以来向中国内地出口,这个市场目前约占公司收入的一半。
        The company is not yet exporting to the United States, though she hopes to develop an American business eventually. “It’s a lot further geographically,” Ms. Cervasio said. She visited China seven times last year, and has taken lessons in the language.        虽然公司尚未向美国出口,不过瑟瓦西奥希望有朝一日在美国发展业务。“美国在地理位置上要远得多,”她说。她去年曾七次访问中国,并开始学习汉语。
        “There is more synergy among Asian markets and Australia,” she said, especially around personal care products.        “亚洲市场和澳大利亚之间有更多的协同增效作用,”她说,尤其是在个人护理产品方面。
        In effect, the combination of population and geography made an Australian shift into the Chinese economic orbit inevitable once China began opening its economy in the 1980s.        实际上,自中国在20世纪80年代开始开放经济后,人口和地理的组合使得澳大利亚向中国经济轨道转移变得不可避免。
        What has changed in the last couple of years is that the risk of a bifurcating world trade system has created new urgency in trying to keep options on both sides.        过去几年发生的变化是,世界贸易体系出现两个分支的风险,给澳大利亚带来了需要在两边都保留选择的紧迫感。
        “There’s no need for Australian business or the Australian government to be hard and fast about allying with either China or the U.S. to the exclusion of the other,” said Adrian Perkins, a partner at the law firm King & Wood Mallesons, the merged product of a Chinese and Australian firm. “The sensible path is to keep all options open. We needn’t shut them down.”        “澳大利亚工商界或澳大利亚政府不必硬性地与中国或美国结盟,加入一方,排斥另一方,”金杜律师事务所(King & Wood Mallesons)合伙人阿德里安·珀金斯(Adrian Perkins)说,这个事务所是一家中国律所与一家澳大利亚律所合并的产物。“理智的做法是保留所有的选择。我们不必关闭选择。”
        What is sensible for Australia’s economy and geopolitics means that what was once a special relationship with the United States is no longer quite so special.        对澳大利亚经济和地缘政治来说,理智的做法意味着澳大利亚与美国曾经有过的特殊关系已不再那么特殊了。
                
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