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Your Next iPhone Might Be Made in Vietnam. Thank the Trade War.

来源:纽约时报    2019-08-01 07:07

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        BAC NINH, Vietnam — No country on earth has benefited from President Trump’s trade fight with China more than Vietnam.
        The country’s factories have swelled with orders as American tariffs cause companies to reconsider making their products in China. Now, more big technology firms are looking to bulk up their manufacturing operations in Vietnam, lifting the ambitions of a nation already well on its way to becoming a powerhouse maker of smartphones and other high-end gadgets.        在美国关税使企业纷纷重新考虑是否要在中国生产之际,这个国家的工厂订单随之增长。如今,更多大型科技公司寻求增加在越南的制造业务,让一个正顺利成为智能手机及其他高端设备制造国的国家产生了更远大的抱负。
        First, though, Vietnam needs to get better at making the little plastic casings on your earbuds.        不过首先,越南得在制造装无线耳塞的小塑料盒方面做得更好。
        Vu Huu Thang’s company in the northern city of Bac Ninh, Bac Viet Technology, produces small plastic parts for Canon printers, Korg musical instruments, and Samsung cellphones and phone accessories, including earbuds. He said it would be hard for his firm to compete against Chinese suppliers as long as he had to buy 70 to 100 tons of imported plastic material every month, most of it made in China.        武友胜(Vu Huu Thang,音)的公司北越技术(Bac Viet Technology)位于北部城市北宁,为佳能打印机、科音(Korg)乐器、三星手机和耳塞手机配件生产小塑料零件。他说,只要他还是每个月必须购买70至100吨主要在中国生产的进口塑料,他的公司就很难同中国供应商竞争。
        “Vietnam cannot compare with China,” Mr. Thang said. “When we buy materials, it’s 5, 10 percent more expensive than China already.” And the Vietnamese market is too small, he said, to entice plastic producers to set up plants here.        “越南没法和中国比,”武友胜说。“我们买来材料,已经比中国贵了5%到10%。”他说,越南市场也太小,不足以吸引塑料制造商在这里办厂。
        Negotiators for the United States and China are meeting in Shanghai this week to try to find a way forward in resolving their bruising trade war. But for some companies, spooked by what now appears to be a definitive darkening in America’s relations with China, the appeal of working in the world’s second-largest economy may already be tarnished for good. With smartphones, video game consoles and other consumer favorites potentially next on Mr. Trump’s tariff list, gadget makers in particular are feeling pressure to find new low-wage places to make or finish their products.        美国和中国的谈判代表本周正在上海举行会谈,以设法为解决两国惨烈的贸易战找到一条出路。但对于部分企业,由于受到美中关系前景如今看来一片黯淡的惊吓,在世界第二大经济体开展业务的吸引力可能已受到永久性损害。随着智能手机、电子游戏机和其他消费者喜爱的产品接下来可能会被纳入特朗普的关税清单,寻找新的低工资地点进行产品的制造或完成,电子设备制造商的压力尤其大。
        Apple has homed in on Vietnam and India as it intensifies its search for ways to diversify its supply chain. Nintendo has accelerated a shift in the production of its Switch console to Vietnam from China, according to Panjiva, a supply chain research firm. The Taiwanese electronics behemoth Foxconn, a major assembler of iPhones, said in January that it had acquired land-use rights in Vietnam and had pumped $200 million into an Indian subsidiary. Other Taiwanese and Chinese partners to Apple have indicated that they are considering ramping up operations in Vietnam as well.        苹果在加紧寻找实现供应链多元化的途径,已把努力的目标设在越南和印度。供应链研究公司磐聚网(Panjiva)表示,任天堂(Nintendo)加快了将Switch游戏机的生产从中国转移至越南的步伐。iPhone的主要组装公司、台湾电子设备巨头富士康1月份表示,已在越南收购土地使用权,并向一家印度子公司投资2亿美元。苹果公司的其他台湾和中国合作伙伴也已表示,在考虑扩大越南的业务规模。
        Even so, this nation of nearly 100 million people is not about to replace China as a manufacturing hub overnight. Land here can be expensive, and ready-to-use factories and warehouses are in short supply. Recruiting enough trained workers and managers is another potential challenge.        即便如此,这个拥有1亿人口的国家并不会在一夜之间取代中国的制造业中心地位。这里的土地可能会很贵,也缺少现成的工厂和仓库。能否招到足够多训练有素的工人和管理人员是另一项潜在的挑战。
        “It’s definitely stretching Vietnam’s capabilities,” said Frederick R. Burke, a managing director in Ho Chi Minh City for the law firm Baker McKenzie. Even though the country’s labor force is expanding by a million people a year, he added, “people are talking about labor shortages already.”        “这肯定会让越南的承载能力吃紧,”贝克麦坚时律师事务所(Baker McKenzie)驻胡志明市常务董事弗雷德里克·R·伯克(Frederick R. Burke)说。他还说,尽管这个国家的劳动力在以每年100万人的速度增长,“人们已经在谈论劳动力短缺问题了。”
        Vietnam also does not have vast galaxies of companies churning out specialized components, parts and materials like those that manufacturers can call upon in China.        越南也不像中国那样,有大量可批量生产专门配件、零部件和材料供制造商使用的公司。
        Tran Thu Thuy said that “of course” she would love to work with Apple someday. Ms. Thuy’s firm, HTMP, makes metal molds that factories use to produce plastic and die-cast parts. She gestured toward a nearby MacBook. One day, she said, HTMP might be able to make the molds for metal laptop bodies. But she knows the company has to improve in many ways before that day can come.        陈秋水(Tran Thu Thuy,音)说,她“当然”希望有朝一日能跟苹果公司合作。陈秋水的公司HTMP制造工厂生产塑料和压铸零件的金属模具。她指了指身旁一台MacBook。有朝一日,她说,HTMP也许能为金属笔记本机身生产模具。但她知道在这一天到来前,公司得在多个方面进行提升。
        “There’s a long list,” she said.        “要做的事情很多,”她说。
        Vietnam is already a colossus in producing shoes, clothes and other types of labor-intensive goods, having long ago begun siphoning business away from its giant northern neighbor.        越南已经是鞋、服装及其他劳动密集型商品的生产大国,很早以前便开始从它庞大的北部邻国那里吸走业务。
        Nike and Adidas now make close to half of their sneakers in Vietnam. As factories have sprung up, the Vietnamese government has pledged to improve roads, ports and power plants. Hanoi has also signed deals with governments around the world to reduce tariffs, including an agreement reached last month with the European Union.        耐克和阿迪达斯近半数运动鞋如今在越南生产。随着工厂大量涌现,越南政府已承诺改善道路、港口和发电厂。河内还和世界各国政府签署了降低关税的协议,包括上月与欧盟达成的一项协议。
        The Trump administration has not failed to notice that its import levies have been shifting global commerce in Vietnam’s direction. The Treasury has put Hanoi on a watch list for manipulating the value of the Vietnamese currency, the dong, to help exporters. Mr. Trump suggested last month that Vietnam might be the next target for punitive tariffs, calling the country “almost the single worst abuser of everybody.”        特朗普政府并非没有注意到,其进口关税正将全球贸易转向越南。财政部将河内列入观察名单,原因是它为帮助出口商操纵越南盾汇率。特朗普上月表示,越南可能是下一个征收惩罚性关税的目标,称该国“在滥用方面几乎是最严重的了”。
        In response, the Vietnamese government said it wanted mutually beneficial trade ties with the United States, and it highlighted its efforts to punish exporters who illegally relabeled their goods as “Made in Vietnam” to dodge American taxes.        作为回应,越南政府表示,它希望与美国建立互利的贸易关系,并强调了其惩罚出口商的努力,这些出口商非法将自己的商品贴上“越南制造”的标签,以逃避美国的税收。
        Yet even Mr. Trump’s feuding seems unlikely to reverse the broader shifts that are turning north Vietnam into a major hub for electronics. Many of the hulking factory complexes that stretch across the horizon in long, palm-fringed rows are here in no small part thanks to one company.        然而,即便是同特朗普有这样的争执,似乎也不太可能阻止越南北部成为重要电子产品中心这一巨大转变。一列列棕榈树环绕的庞大工厂建筑群在地平线上延伸,这在很大程度上要归功于一家公司。
        More than a decade ago, Samsung Electronics, the South Korean titan, set up a plant in Bac Ninh to reduce its dependence on China. The move was prescient. Costs in China continued to increase, and Samsung’s sales there withered after Beijing called for boycotts on South Korean products over Seoul’s embrace of an American missile defense system in 2017.        十多年前,韩国巨头三星电子(Samsung Electronics)在北宁建立了一家工厂,以减少对中国的依赖。此举很有先见之明。由于韩国在2017年接受了美国的导弹防御系统,中国政府呼吁抵制韩国产品,导致三星在华销售萎缩。
        Samsung has since closed all but one of its smartphone plants in China. It now assembles around half of the handsets it sells worldwide in Vietnam. Samsung’s subsidiaries in the country, which employ around 100,000 people, accounted for nearly a third of the company’s $220 billion in sales last year.        此后,三星关闭在华智能手机工厂,只保留了一家。目前,该公司在越南组装的手机约占其全球销量的一半。三星在越南的子公司雇佣了大约10万名员工,占该公司去年2200亿美元销售额的近三分之一。
        A Samsung spokeswoman said about 90 percent of those sales involved goods shipped from Vietnam to other countries. That implies Samsung alone accounted for a quarter of Vietnam’s exports in 2018, although even that might not fully capture the company’s effect on the wider economy. Samsung’s success in Vietnam helped convince many of its South Korean suppliers that they needed to be here, too.        三星的一位发言人说,其中大约90%的销售涉及从越南运往其他国家的货物。这意味着,仅三星一家就占越南2018年出口总额的四分之一,即便这一点可能无法完全反映出该公司对整体经济的影响。三星在越南的成功让许多韩国供应商相信,他们也应该来越南。
        “When you are a big company and you move to a place, everything follows you,” said Filippo Bortoletti, the deputy manager in Hanoi at the business advisory firm Dezan Shira.        “如果你是一家大公司,你搬到一个地方,一切都会跟着你,”越南协力管理咨询公司(Dezan Shira)驻河内的副经理菲利波·博托莱蒂(Filippo Bortoletti)说。
        Some Vietnamese business owners say the blessings are mixed, though. Foreign giants, they say, come to Vietnam and work largely with vendors they already use elsewhere, leaving little room in their supply chains for local upstarts.        不过,一些越南企业主说,这个局面令人喜忧参半。他们说,外国巨头来到越南,主要与他们在其他地方已经使用过的供应商合作,他们的供应链上留给当地新企业的空间很小。
        Samsung has 35 Vietnamese suppliers, the spokeswoman said. Apple declined to comment.        前述发言人说,三星有35家越南供应商。苹果公司拒绝置评。
        When Samsung first set up in the country, it bought some of the metal fixtures used on its assembly lines from a local firm, Vietnam Precision Mechanical Service & Trading, or VPMS. But then more of Samsung’s South Korean partners started coming into the country, and after a year, Samsung and VPMS stopped working together, said Nguyen Xuan Hoang, one of the Vietnamese company’s founders.        在越南设厂之初,三星从越南精密机械服务贸易公司(Vietnam Precision Mechanical Service & Trading,简称VPMS)购买了本地工厂装配线上使用的一些金属固定装置。但后来,越来越多三星的韩国合作伙伴开始进入越南,一年后,三星和VPMS停止了合作,公司创始人之一阮春煌(Nguyen Xuan Hoang,音)说。
        Price and quality were not the issue, Mr. Hoang said, over the hissing and clanging of machinery at his factory near Bac Ninh. The problem was scale: Samsung needed many more fixtures than VPMS could deliver.        在VPMS位于北宁附近的工厂里,伴随着机器的轰鸣声,阮春煌说,问题不在于价格和质量,而是在于规模:三星需要的设备比VPMS能提供的多得多。
        Vu Tien Cuong’s company, Fitek, produces industrial equipment for Samsung, Canon and other big firms around Bac Ninh. He acknowledged that most Vietnamese suppliers had quality and productivity issues that kept them from winning business from multinational companies. But he thinks that the root problem is inexperience, not a lack of money or knowledge.        武进强(Vu Tien Cuong,音)的公司Fitek为三星、佳能和北宁附近的其他大公司生产工业设备。他承认,大多数越南供应商存在质量和生产率问题,这阻碍了他们从跨国公司赢得业务。但他认为根本问题在于缺乏经验,而不是缺乏金钱或知识。
        “Day by day,” Mr. Cuong said, Vietnam’s supplier base is improving and “growing up.”        “一天天过去,”武进强说,越南的供应商基础正在改善和“成长”。
        Nguyen Thi Hue, 28, knows a thing or two about growing up on the job. For a long time after starting her own company in 2015, Ms. Hue worked 16-hour days juggling a day job for another firm while getting her new venture off the ground.        28岁的阮氏惠(Nguyen Thi Hue,音)了解如何在工作中成长。在2015年创办自己的公司后的很长一段时间里,阮氏惠每天工作16个小时,一边为另一家公司奔波,一边让自己的新公司起步。
        Her start-up, Anofa, specializes in surface treatments for metal parts. It has worked with suppliers for foreign brands like the South Korean electronics maker LG and the Italian motorcycle maker Ducati.        她的初创企业Anofa专门从事金属部件的表面处理。它曾与韩国电子产品制造商LG和意大利摩托车制造商杜卡迪(Ducati)等外国品牌的供应商合作。
        “We really look forward” to Apple’s expanding its supply chain in Vietnam, said Nguyen Van Huan, Ms. Hue’s husband, who is also her lawyer.        阮氏惠的丈夫、同时也是她的律师的阮文焕(Nguyen Van Huan,音)说,对于苹果在越南扩张供应链,“我们真的很期待。”
        Anofa has invested in new machines to try to win more business from foreign clients. “They have higher standards and requirements,” Mr. Huan said.        为了从外国客户那里赢得更多的业务,Anofa投资购置了新机器。“他们有更高的标准和要求,”阮文焕说。
        “We can meet them,” Ms. Hue said, beaming.        “我们都能满足,”阮氏惠笑容满面地说。

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