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人民币继续贬值是北京刻意为之吗?
Chinese Currency’s Drop Isn’t Entirely in Beijing’s Control

来源:纽约时报    2019-08-28 03:13



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        China’s currency weakened by 0.15 percent against the dollar on Tuesday. It was a decline that — on its own — seems unremarkable.        周二,人民币兑美元汇率下跌了0.15%。这个数字就其本身而言似乎无关紧要。
        But as the trade war between Washington and Beijing drags on, the value of the renminbi is increasingly at the heart of the global fight over trade, technology and economic dominance between the world’s two largest economies.Lately, even the minuscule moves are starting to add up.        但随着华盛顿和北京之间贸易战的持续,这两个世界最大经济体围绕贸易、技术和经济主导地位展开的斗争中,人民币汇率正日益成为核心。最近,即使是微不足道的举动也开始积少成多。
        Tuesday’s dip pushed the currency to its weakest level against the dollar since early 2008, according to data from FactSet. Since the Trump administration began to talk of imposing tariffs on Chinese exports in early 2018, the currency is down roughly 10 percent. The drop has picked up speed in August, with the renminbi down about 4 percent.        FactSet的数据显示,周二的下跌将人民币兑美元汇率推至2008年初以来的最低水平。自从特朗普政府在2018年初开始讨论对中国出口商品征收关税以来,人民币已经贬值了大约10%。8月份,人民币贬值速度加快,跌幅约为4%。
        Allowing the currency to weaken helps China offset the impact of American tariffs on its products. When the renminbi crossed 7 per dollar this month — a symbolic level that the Chinese authorities had long kept it from crossing — the move was seen as a deliberate effort by Beijing to blunt the Trump administration’s stated goal of cutting the United States’ trade deficit with China.        允许人民币贬值有助于中国抵消美国对其产品征收关税的影响。本月,人民币兑美元汇率“破7”曾被视为北京刻意破坏特朗普政府削减美国对华贸易逆差这一既定目标,中国政府曾一直保持汇率不越过这个有象征意义的水平。
        But the drop also reflects uncertainty about what China’s economy faces, as the global trading system it depends on is thrown into chaos by the trade war. And there’s evidence that Beijing has been trying to prop the currency up, rather than weaken it drastically.        但这一降幅也反映出,随着中国经济所依赖的全球贸易体系因贸易战而陷入混乱,中国经济将面临怎样的不确定性。有证据表明,中国政府一直在努力支撑人民币,而不是令人民币大幅贬值。
        “The trading relationship of China and the rest of the world is changing,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy for Medley Global Advisors. “There’s less demand for Chinese goods and less demand for the Chinese currency.”        “中国与世界其他地区的贸易关系正在发生变化,”梅德利全球咨询公司(Medley Global Advisors)全球宏观战略董事总经理本·埃蒙斯(Ben Emons)表示。“对中国商品和中国货币的需求减少了。”
        By definition, any analysis of the movements of China’s currency is partly a guessing game. Chinese policymakers with authority over the renminbi aren’t particularly transparent about their intentions.        从本质上说,任何对人民币走势的分析在一定程度上都是猜谜游戏。支配人民币的中国决策者的意图并不特别透明。
        But it is also becoming clear that, despite China’s financial firepower and technical expertise in managing its economy, the trade war is fundamentally changing the economic system of globalization that enabled the country’s rise.        但越来越明显的是,尽管中国在管理经济方面拥有强大的财力和技术专长,但贸易战正在从根本上改变令中国崛起的全球化经济体系。
        Large-scale economic factors are also at play        大规模的经济因素也在发挥作用
        China does set a daily “fixing” around which the currency can trade, but the falling value also reflects the range of large-scale economic factors that would affect any exchange rate: economic growth, interest rates and trade balances.        中国确实设定了人民币汇率的每日“中间价”,但人民币贬值也反映了影响汇率的一系列大规模经济因素:经济增长、利率和贸易平衡。
        In China, many of those economic vital signs have been weakening lately, most likely as a result of the spiraling fight over tariffs. Growth is clearly slowing, and interest rates are widely expected to fall as the government tries to keep the country’s expansion alive.        最近,中国很多这些重要的经济指标都在减弱,很有可能是围绕关税的斗争愈演愈烈的结果。经济增长明显放缓,随着政府试图维持中国的经济扩张,外界普遍预计利率将下降。
        And then there are the tariffs themselves. Economic theory has long predicted that tariffs will result in a weakening currency, for relatively straightforward reasons: They’re designed to cut the exports of the country on which they’re levied, in this case China’s exports to the United States.        还有关税本身。长期以来,经济学理论一直预测关税将导致货币贬值,原因相对简单:关税旨在削减被征收国的出口,在当前情况下,就是中国对美国的出口。
        If they work, and there is some evidence that American manufacturers are shifting their orders to Vietnam and other countries, it means less demand for Chinese products, and therefore less demand for the country’s currency.        如果这些措施奏效,而且有证据表明,美国制造商正在将订单转移到越南和其他国家,这意味着对中国产品的需求将减少,因此对中国货币的需求也将减少。
        A vicious cycle can follow a falling currency        货币贬值可能导致恶性循环
        The dour outlook for the economy may also be prompting some global investors to pull money out of China.More than $60 billion fled China in May and June, the last months for which data was available from the Institute of International Finance, a banking group that tracks money flows to emerging markets.        黯淡的经济前景也可能促使一些全球投资者将资金撤出中国。国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)的数据显示,5月和6月有600多亿美元资金逃离中国。这是一个追踪流向新兴市场资金情况的银行集团。
        A weakening renminbi itself can also spur capital outflows from wealthy Chinese seeking to protect their savings from devaluation.        人民币贬值本身也可能刺激中国富人的资本外流,他们希望保护自己的储蓄不受贬值影响。
        Such outflows can be difficult to control, forming a feedback loop in which downward pressure on a currency causes more selling, as more investors rush to cash out of their Chinese investments. When they do this, they convert their renminbi in financial markets, effectively selling the Chinese currency — which weakens it — and buying dollars, yen or euros.        这种资金外流可能难以控制,形成了一个反馈循环,随着越来越多的投资者急于从中国投资中套现,货币的下行压力会导致更多抛售。当投资者这样做的时候,会在金融市场上兑换人民币,实际上是卖出人民币,并买入美元、日元或欧元,这会削弱人民币。
        China’s stockpile of dollars is another clue        中国的美元储备是另一个线索
        Another clue that the falling currency isn’t entirely Beijing’s doing is that its stockpile of dollars hasn’t been growing very much.        中国的美元储备并没有大幅增长,这也是一个迹象,表明人民币贬值并不完全是北京刻意为之。
        Because China sets a narrow price range for the currency, it has to intervene in markets to keep it within that band. If the renminbi gets too weak, the central bank will use some of its dollars to buy the currency.        由于中国为人民币设定了一个狭窄的价格区间,它不得不干预市场,使人民币汇率保持在这一区间内。如果人民币过于疲软,中国央行将使用部分美元购买人民币。
        Conversely, when the Chinese authorities are trying to keep the country’s currency cheap, they print it and use it to buy up dollars. The result for the Chinese is both a weaker currency and a large stockpile of American dollars.        相反,如果中国当局试图令本国货币保持廉价,他们会印发货币,用其购买美元。对中国来说,结果是货币贬值和大量美元储备。
        And for decades, as the Chinese were keeping their money artificially cheap to give their exporters an advantage, the country’s stockpile of dollars surged.        几十年来,由于中国人为地保持货币廉价,以便给出口商带来优势,其美元储备大幅增加。
        But in recent years, something changed. With China’s growth now slowing, the currency has been weakening. At the same time, China’s stockpile of dollars has declined, meaning that China is effectively selling dollars and buying renminbi in an effort to keep the currency stronger.        但近年来,情况发生了变化。随着中国经济增长放缓,人民币一直在走弱。与此同时,中国的美元储备有所下降,这意味着中国实际上是在卖出美元、买入人民币,以保持人民币走强。
        That means that, as far as we know, China hasn’t been trying to weaken its currency by intervening in the markets. It’s worth noting that public data on the central bank’s dollar holdings is available only through June, so this view may well change when more information becomes available.        就我们所知,这意味着中国并没有试图通过干预市场来压低人民币汇率。值得注意的是,有关中国央行美元持有量的公开数据只提供到6月,因此,当更多信息浮出水面时,这种观点很可能会发生变化。
        The sharp drops in the renminbi this month, however, also suggest that China isn’t going to spend too much of its money trying to fight the market forces trying to drive its currency down in value.        不过,人民币本月的大幅贬值也表明,中国不会花太多钱对抗压低人民币汇率的市场力量。
        So, all over Wall Street, analysts expect China’s currency weakness to continue, alongside the trade battle.        因此,在整个华尔街,分析人士预计,在贸易战继续的同时,中国的货币疲软也将继续下去。
                
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