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林郑月娥让步后,香港抗议会继续吗?
Hong Kong’s Leader Partly Relents. Will the Protests Continue?

来源:纽约时报    2019-09-05 10:14



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        HONG KONG — After nearly three months of protests that have rocked Hong Kong, the city’s leader, Carrie Lam, made a key concession on Wednesday in announcing her intention to formally withdraw a deeply unpopular extradition bill.        香港——在撼动香港的抗议活动持续了近三个月之后,该城市的领导人林郑月娥周三作出了一个关键让步,宣布她打算正式撤回一项极不受欢迎的引渡法案。
        But experts say the move, which comes after a weekend of violent clashes between protesters and the police, is unlikely to fully quell the demonstrations. Since the demonstrations began in June, protesters’ demands have morphed into a broader movement calling for fundamental political reforms and an independent inquiry into police conduct.        但专家们说,此举不太可能完全平息示威活动。就在做出这一宣布前的那个周末,抗议者与警方发生了暴力冲突。自从示威活动于6月份开始以来,抗议者的诉求已扩大到更广的范围,要求根本性的政治改革,并对警方的行为展开独立调查。
        Here is a look at Mrs. Lam’s action and its possible impact on a city roiled by protests.        下面来看一看林郑月娥的行动,以及它可能对这个被抗议活动搅乱的城市会产生什么样的影响。
        What did Carrie Lam do?        林郑月娥做了什么?
        In announcing her decision to withdraw a contentious bill that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China, Mrs. Lam was trying to placate Hong Kongers concerned about being subject to China’s opaque legal system, which is controlled by the ruling Communist Party.        林郑月娥宣布撤回一项有争议法案的决定是在安抚香港人。修例将允许把逃犯引渡到中国大陆,香港人因此担心会受制于大陆由共产党控制的、不透明的法律体系。
        Mrs. Lam announced as early as June 15, not long after mass street protests erupted, that she was indefinitely delaying the bill. But many were unsatisfied with Mrs. Lam’s decision to suspend the proposal, rather than fully withdraw it. On June 16, an estimated two million people poured into the streets in a dramatic rejection of the government’s attempt to back down.        林郑月娥早在6月15日,也就是大规模街头抗议活动爆发后不久,就宣布她将无限期地推迟修订《逃犯条例》。但许多人对林郑月娥决定暂停而不是彻底撤回修例并不满意。估计有200万人在6月16日涌上街头,引人注目地拒绝了政府的让步尝试。
        Protesters seized on Mrs. Lam’s refusal to formally withdraw the bill as a sign that she was more beholden to Beijing than to Hong Kong, a former British colony that was returned to Chinese rule in 1997.        抗议者抓住林郑月娥拒绝正式撤回修例这件事,认为那表明,她对北京比对香港有更多的感恩之情。香港曾是英国殖民地,1997年回归中国。
        Mrs. Lam said on Wednesday that, in addition to formally withdrawing the bill, she would appoint two new members to a police review committee to investigate officers’ behavior during the protests. But protesters want an independent investigation of police conduct, and do not trust the existing committee, considering it ineffective.        林郑月娥周三说,除了正式撤回修例外,她还将任命两名新成员加入独立监察警方处理投诉委员会(简称监警会),调查警察在抗议活动中的行为。但抗议者要求对警方的行为展开独立调查,他们不信任现有的监警会,认为该委员会不起作用。
        What’s the difference between suspending a bill and withdrawing it?        暂停修例与撤回修例有什么区别?
        The suspension removed the extradition bill from the agenda of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. But under the council’s rules, a suspended bill could be restored with 12 days’ notice, meaning it could be reintroduced. Ms. Lam’s announcement that she would withdraw the bill is far more consequential. Withdrawal means that the bill’s sponsors would have to start all over again if they want to reintroduce it.        暂停只是把修订《逃犯条例》从香港立法会的议程中取消。但按照立法会的规定,只要提前12天通知立法会,就可以随时恢复暂停的法案,这意味着修例可能会重新推出。林郑月娥宣布撤回修例影响要大得多。撤回意味着,如果该法案的发起人想重新将法案提交立法会的话,就必须从头开始。
        What’s next for the protests?        抗议活动的下一步是什么?
        Despite Mrs. Lam’s concession on the extradition bill, the demonstrations are likely to continue. After Mrs. Lam’s announcement on Wednesday, many protesters vowed in social messaging groups and online forums to continue taking to the streets, referring to the slogan: “Five demands, not one less.”        尽管林郑月娥在修例上做出了让步,但示威活动可能还会继续下去。林郑月娥周三做出宣布之后,许多抗议者在社交即时短信群和在线论坛上誓言,将继续走上街头,指出他们的口号是“五大诉求,缺一不可”。
        The protesters’ five demands are: the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill, the independent investigation into the police response, amnesty for arrested protesters, direct elections for all lawmakers and the chief executive, and not labeling those at a June 12 protest as “rioters.”        抗议者的五项诉求是:正式撤回修订《逃犯条例》,对警方反应展开独立调查,赦免被捕的抗议者,用直接选举来产生所有立法会议员和行政长官,以及不把6月12日的抗议活动定性为“暴动”。
        Though Mrs. Lam’s decision may help assuage some protesters, experts said it was unlikely to satisfy a small group of young demonstrators who have become more militant in recent weeks. A test of the public’s reaction to Mrs. Lam’s decision, they said, could come as soon as this weekend, since the biggest, most disruptive protests often happen on weekends.        尽管林郑月娥的决定可能有助于安抚部分抗议者,但专家说,这个决定不大可能让一小群年轻的示威者满意,他们已在最近几周变得更加激进。他们说,公众对林郑月娥决定的反应,可能最早会在本周末得到检验,因为规模最大、最具破坏性的抗议活动往往发生在周末。
        In recent weeks, as clashes between protesters and the police have intensified, the focus of the demonstrations has shifted to police violence, and Mrs. Lam’s actions on Wednesday could be seen as falling short.        最近几周,随着抗议者与警察之间的冲突加剧,示威活动的焦点已经转移到警察暴力上,林郑月娥周三的做法可能被视为远远不够。
        “It may ease anger a little, but it’s definitely not going to get people out of the streets,” said Samson Yuen, an assistant professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong who studies local social movements.        “这可能会稍稍缓解愤怒情绪,但肯定不会让人们离开街头,”香港岭南大学研究当地社会运动的政治学助理教授袁玮熙说。
        “It’s too late,” Mr. Yuen said. “The focus of the protests is not on the bill anymore.”        “决定来得太迟了,”袁玮熙说。“抗议的焦点已不再是修例。”
        How is Beijing likely to react?        北京方面可能会作何反应?
        Though Mrs. Lam announced the decision to withdraw the bill, many saw it as a concession by Beijing. Mrs. Lam recently told a group of businesspeople that she would resign if she could but had no choice in the matter, according to a report by Reuters. Many took it as further proof that Beijing was calling the shots.        尽管宣布撤回修例决定的是林郑月娥,但许多人认为,这是北京作出的让步。据路透社报道,林郑月娥最近对一群商界人士说,如果可以的话,她会辞职,但她在这件事上别无选择。许多人认为这进一步证明了发号施令的是北京。
        The announcement comes just weeks before China is to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. While many saw Mrs. Lam’s move as an effort to soothe public anger before that important event, some experts expressed doubt that Beijing would allow any further concessions, especially with regards to the police.        林郑月娥的宣布是在中华人民共和国即将庆祝建国70周年的几周前出来的。尽管很多人认为,林郑月娥此举是为了在这个重要纪念日前平息公众的愤怒,但一些专家对北京会允许任何进一步的让步,尤其是在警察问题上的让步,表示怀疑。
        Short of China sending in troops, the Hong Kong police “are the only forceful means they can use to control the situation,” said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Beijing needs the police.”        香港中文大学中国研究中心兼职教授林和立说,除非中国派兵,香港警方“是他们用来控制局势的唯一有力手段,北京需要香港警察”。
        What are other likely effects?        还有其他可能的结果吗?
        Financial markets reacted positively as reports of Mrs. Lam’s impending announcement began to circulate on Wednesday. By the end of the day, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong had risen by nearly 4 percent, its biggest single-day gain since November.        金融市场对周三传出的林郑月娥将要宣布决定的消息反应积极。到当日收盘时,香港恒生指数上涨了近4%,这是自去年11月以来的最大单日涨幅。
        But such optimism may be short-lived. The city’s economy has showed signs that it’s headed toward a recession. Should the protests continue, tourists might stay away and further damage the city’s retail sector and its small businesses, which have been badly battered by the demonstrations.        但这种乐观可能是短暂的。香港的经济已经显示出走向衰退的迹象。如果抗议活动继续下去,游客们可能会避开这里,这将进一步损害香港的零售业和小商贩,这些行业已在抗议活动中受到了重创。
                
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