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贸易战到底在伤害中国还是美国的制造业?
Trump Says China Will Suffer as Data Shows Trade War Hurting U.S.

来源:纽约时报    2019-09-04 04:27



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        WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Tuesday that Chinese manufacturing would “crumble” if the country did not agree to the United States’ trade terms, as newly released data showed his trade war was washing back to American shores and hurting the factories that the president has aimed to protect.        华盛顿——周二,特朗普总统表示,如果中国不同意美国的贸易条件,中国的制造业将“崩溃”;与此同时,最新公布的数据显示,他的贸易战正在向美国本土蔓延,损害了总统旨在保护的工厂。
        Days after new tariffs went into effect on both sides of the Pacific, a closely watched index of American manufacturing activity fell to 49.1 from 51.2, signaling a contraction in United States factory activity for the first time since 2016. The companies responding to the Institute for Supply Management survey, which the index is based on, cited shrinking export orders as a result of the trade dispute, as well as the challenge of moving supply chains out of China to avoid the tariffs.        太平洋两岸的新关税生效几天后,一项备受关注的美国制造业活动指数从51.2降至49.1,标志着美国制造业活动自2016年以来首次出现收缩。该指数基于美国供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)的调查。接受调查的企业称,贸易争端导致出口订单减少,以及为规避关税将供应链移出中国的挑战。
        The manufacturing sector’s struggles are likely to increase as the world’s two largest economies continue to escalate their trade fight. On Sunday, Mr. Trump placed a new 15 percent tariff on a range of consumer goods, including clothing, lawn mowers, sewing machines, food and jewelry, and Beijing retaliated by increasing tariffs on $75 billion worth of American products. China also said on Monday that it was filing a complaint at the World Trade Organization over Mr. Trump’s new tariffs.        随着全球最大的两个经济体之间的贸易争端继续升级,制造业的困境可能会加剧。周日,特朗普对包括服装、割草机、缝纫机、食品和珠宝在内的一系列消费品加征15%的新关税,北京则对价值750亿美元的美国产品加征关税作为报复。中国周一还表示,将就特朗普的新关税向世界贸易组织提起申诉。
        Markets sank on weaker economic news and worries about the trade war. The S&P 500 was down about 0.9 percent, with particular weakness in industrial and energy stocks.        市场因经济消息疲软和对贸易战的担忧而下跌。标准普尔500指数下跌约0.9%,工业和能源股尤其疲软。
        Prices of key industrial commodities were also lower, with futures prices for benchmark American crude oil down roughly 3 percent. Copper, considered a barometer of the health of the global industrial sector, was down a bit less than 1 percent.        主要工业大宗商品价格也走低,美国基准原油期货价格下跌约3%。被视为全球工业部门健康状况晴雨表的铜价跌幅略低于1%。
        The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 1.45 percent, as jittery investors continued to buy government bonds, pushing prices up and yields lower. The drop in bond yields this year — the yield on the 10-year note was above 3 percent in late 2018 — suggests a broad-based cut in expectations for economic growth among investors.        随着紧张不安的投资者继续购买政府债券,推高价格,压低收益率,10年期美国国债收益率跌至1.45%。今年债券收益率的下降——2018年末,10年期国债收益率高于3%——表明投资者对经济增长的预期普遍降低。
        “The U.S. trade war with the world has blown open a great big hole in manufacturers’ confidence,” Chris Rupkey, the chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “The manufacturing sector has officially turned down and is falling for the first time this year as the China tariffs and slowdown in exports has really started to bite.”        “美国与世界的贸易战给制造商的信心炸开了一个大洞,”三菱日联银行(MUFG Union Bank)首席金融分析师克里斯·鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)周二在一份报告中写道,“随着中国关税和出口放缓真正开始产生影响,制造业已正式放缓,并在今年首次出现下滑。”
        The president has continued to insist that pain from the trade war is falling primarily on China, not the United States. On Friday, he said American companies were leaving China in response to his tariffs, a development that put the United States in an “incredible negotiating position.” And he said any business that complained about financial pain from the tariffs was suffering from bad management, not the trade war.        总统依然坚持认为,贸易战的损失主要落在中国身上,而不是美国。周五,他表示,美国公司正在离开中国,作为对他征收关税的回应,这一事态发展使美国处于“令人难以置信的谈判地位”。他还表示,任何抱怨关税带来财务损失的企业,都是因为管理不善,而不是贸易战。
        On Tuesday, he warned Beijing not to try to wait for a new administration to come into office after the 2020 election, saying China’s supply chain “will crumble” and that it would be “a long time to be hemorrhaging jobs and companies on a long-shot.”        周二,他警告北京不要试图等待2020年大选后新一届政府上台,并称中国的供应链“会崩溃”,而且“会有很长时间出现大量工作岗位流失,公司前景渺茫”。
        Many chief executives and trade groups say they support the president’s goal of changing China’s economic practices, particularly those that require businesses to hand over valuable technology as a condition of operating in China. But businesses have begun to express concern about the seemingly unending trade war. Many big companies, particularly those in the retail and manufacturing sectors, have downgraded sales and profit forecasts as a result of the tariffs.        许多首席执行官和贸易组织表示,他们支持总统改变中国经济行为的目标,尤其是要求企业将转让有价值的技术作为在华经营条件的做法。但企业已开始对这场似乎永无止境的贸易战表示担忧。受关税影响,许多大公司,尤其是零售和制造业的大公司,下调了销售和利润预期。
        The trade war’s potential to slow America’s economic expansion, including its impact on the manufacturing sector, has already prompted concern from Federal Reserve officials. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade in July, and officials have said they are prepared to cut them further to protect the economy against fallout from slowing global growth and trade risks.        贸易战有可能减缓美国经济的扩张,包括对制造业的影响,已经引起美联储官员的担忧。7月,美联储十多年来首次降息,官员们表示他们还将准备进一步降息,保护经济免受全球增长放缓和贸易风险的影响。
        Even some officials who did not vote in favor of July’s rate cut say economic risks have increased.        甚至一些没有支持7月份降息的官员也表示,经济风险已经增大。
        Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and a monetary policy voter this year, indicated that he still favored waiting and watching incoming economic data before making interest rate cuts beyond the July move, which he voted against.        波士顿联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)行长、今年的货币政策投票委员埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)表示,他仍然倾向于等待接下来的经济数据,评估之后再决定是否再次降息。他在7月份的降息决策中投了反对票。
        But he also said it was “clearly reasonable” to judge that risks to the economy were elevated. “Should those risks become a reality, the appropriate monetary policy would be to ease aggressively,” he said, suggesting that he might favor rapid interest rate cuts if economic data soured meaningfully.        但他也表示,“显然有理由”判断经济风险在增加。“如果这些风险成为现实,积极宽松的货币政策才是正解,”他说道,并且还暗示,如果经济数据明显恶化,他可能会支持迅速降息。
        The Trump administration has been pressuring China for more than two years to make a trade deal that would strengthen its protections for American intellectual property and result in large purchases of American products. But the two sides continue to have significant disagreements, including which of Mr. Trump’s tariffs should be rolled back and what kind of legal changes China must make to treat American companies more fairly.        两年多的时间里,特朗普政府一直在向中国施压,希望达成一项贸易协议,加强对美国知识产权的保护,并大量购买美国产品。但双方仍然存在重大分歧,包括特朗普的哪些关税应该取消,以及为了更为公平地对待美国企业,中国在法律上必须做出什么样的改变。
        Since talks between the two countries stalled in May, Mr. Trump has moved ahead with his threat to tax nearly everything China sends to the United States. On Sunday, the Trump administration placed a 15 percent levy on roughly $112 billion worth of Chinese goods and plans to place tariffs on roughly $160 billion worth of cellphones, laptops, clothing and toys on Dec. 15. Mr. Trump has also said the United States will raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of products to 30 percent from 25 percent on Oct. 1.        两国谈判自5月份陷入僵局以来,特朗普一直威胁要对中国向美国出口的几乎所有商品征税。周日,特朗普政府对价值约1120亿美元的中国商品征收15%的关税,并计划在12月15日对价值约1600亿美元的手机、笔记本电脑、服装和玩具征税。特朗普还表示,美国将从10月1日起对价值2500亿美元的产品关税从25%提高到30%。
        China has vowed to retaliate on Dec. 15 with more tariffs of its own.        中国已放话,要在12月15日以更高的关税进行报复。
        While a deal appears far from certain, the two sides could still avert the increases and declare another cease-fire. The United States and China have discussed a meeting in Washington in September, and American and Chinese officials will both be present on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York later in the month.        虽然距离达成协议还很远,但双方仍有可能避免局势加剧,并宣布再次停火。美中已经讨论过于9月在华盛顿举行会议,而且两国官员都将出席本月晚些时候在纽约举行的联合国大会。
        Myron Brilliant, the executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the two governments would have to work to restore some trust before any conclusion to the trade war would be reached — perhaps through Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods, something Mr. Trump has long focused on.        美国商会执行副会长薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)表示,在贸易战达成任何协议之前,两国政府必须努力恢复一定的信任——也许是通过中国购买美国农产品,这是特朗普长期以来所关注的问题。
        “There’s a trust deficit between the two governments,” he said. “We need steppingstones to build confidence in the relationship so both governments are positioned to get a deal down the road.”        “两国政府之间存在信任赤字,”他说,“建立对两国关系的信心需要台阶,这样两国政府才能在未来达成协议。”
                
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