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美国与东盟首次联合海上军演,回应中国影响力
U.S. Will Drill With Southeast Asian Navies, Echoing Move by China

来源:纽约时报    2019-09-03 02:59



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        HONG KONG — Southeast Asian countries tend to be deeply reluctant to collectively challenge China’s growing military and economic prowess in their region. But this week, they appear to be doing just that — by holding their first joint naval drills with the United States Navy.        香港——东南亚国家往往非常不愿意集体挑战中国在该地区日益增长的军事和经济实力。但本周,他们似乎就在这么做——他们将同美国海军举行首次联合海上军演。
        The drills, which will take place partly in the South China Sea, a site of geopolitical tension, were scheduled to start on Monday and were not expected to focus on lethal maneuvers, or to take place in contested waters where China operates military bases.        此次军演部分在地缘政治局势紧张地区南海举行,定于周一开始,预计重点不会集中在危险的演习项目上,亦不会在中国设有军事基地的争议水域举行。
        But the maneuvers follow similar exercises held last year by China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations in an undisputed area of the sea, making them a riposte of sorts to Beijing.        但此次军演发生在去年中国与东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations,简称东盟)10个成员国在一个无争议海域举行的类似演习之后,使其某种程度上像是对北京的回击。
        During a summer of heightened tensions over territorial claims, plus an escalating trade war between China and the United States, the drills are being closely watched as the latest move in a high-stakes geopolitical chess match between the superpowers and their shared regional allies.        在整个夏天围绕领土争端的紧张局势加剧,加之中美两国之间的贸易战不断升级之际,作为两个超级大国与其共同地区盟友之间一场高风险地缘政治博弈的最新举动,此次军演受到密切关注。
        Some analysts see the drills as part of an incremental hardening of America’s military posture in the South China Sea under President Trump, a strategy that has not been accompanied by additional American diplomacy or incentives for its partners.        一些分析人士认为,军演是特朗普总统治下的美国在南海军事姿态日益强硬的一部分,这项策略没有附带额外的美国外交手段或对伙伴的激励措施。
        “The United States is taking a risk both that its partners will be less inclined to work with it because they are nervous about signaling security cooperation when there’s nothing else there, and that China will continue to advance in the places in which we are absent” on diplomatic and economic fronts, said Mira Rapp-Hooper, an expert on Asian security affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.        “美国在冒险,一方面它的伙伴会更不愿与之合作,因为在没有其他东西的情况下,他们对发出的安全合作信号感到紧张,另一方面,中国将继续在我们(外交和经济方面)缺席的地方推进,”纽约的外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)亚洲安全问题学者米拉·拉普-胡珀(Mira Rapp-Hooper)说。
        “So from a basic balance-of-power perspective, we are not holding the line nearly as well as we should be,” she added.        “所以从基本的权力平衡视角来看,我们远没有像我们应该的那样守住这条线,”她补充说。
        The United States Navy declined to comment on the record ahead of the drills, citing operational sensitivities.        美国海军以行动的敏感性为由,拒绝在演习前予以置评。
        But in a statement late Sunday, the Navy said the drills would include “a sea phase in international waters in Southeast Asia, including the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea.” It said they would focus partly on “search and seizure,” “maritime asset tracking” and “countering maritime threats,” among other subjects.        但在周日晚些时候的声明中,海军表示,军演将包括“泰国湾和南海在内的东南亚一片国际海域的海上阶段”。声明表示,演习的部分重点放在“搜索与扣押”、“海事资源追踪”和“回击海上威胁”等课题上。
        The statement said the drills would include eight warships, four aircraft and more than 1,000 personnel. It said the American military hardware included a littoral combat ship, a guided-missile destroyer, three MH-60 helicopters and a P-8 Poseidon plane.        声明称,军演将包括8艘战舰、4架飞机和1000多名人员。它还表示,美国海军派出包括1艘濒海战斗舰、1艘导弹驱逐舰、3架MH-60直升机和“P-8 海神”(P-8 Poseidon)飞机等装备参加演习。
        The Poseidon is a type of reconnaissance aircraft that the United States has used to conduct surveillance flights over the South China Sea, including around disputed reefs that China has filled out and turned into military bases.        “海神”是一种侦察机,美国一直用它在南海进行侦察飞行,包括中国填海建成军事基地的争议岛礁附近。
        The drills were scheduled to begin on Monday at Sattahip, a Thai naval base, after “pre-sail activities in Thailand, Singapore and Brunei,” and to end in Singapore. The Navy’s statement did not say when the drills would end.        军演定于周一在泰国梭桃邑海军基地开始,此前会“在泰国、新加坡和文莱进行预热”,并在新加坡结束。美国海军的声明未透露军演将于何时结束。
        Many of the drills will take place this week off Ca Mau Province, on the southern tip of Vietnam, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Thai political analyst. He added that the drills would “reinforce the view that geopolitical tensions are shifting from land to sea.”        泰国政治分析师提迪南·蓬素提拉(Thitinan Pongsudhirak)表示,很多演习本周将在越南最南端的金瓯省沿海举行。他还表示,军演将“强化地缘政治紧张局势正从陆地转至海上的观点”。
        The timing is ideal for Vietnam, which is deeply worried about a state-owned Chinese survey ship that has been spotted this summer in what the Vietnamese regard as their own territorial waters. Last month, the State Department called the survey ship’s movements an effort by Beijing to “intimidate other claimants out of developing resources in the South China Sea,” including what it said was $2.5 trillion worth of unexploited oil and natural gas.        对越南而言,这是一个理想的时机,今年夏天,越南在它视为自己领海的海域发现了一艘中国国有勘探船,为此深感担忧。上个月,美国国务院称这艘勘探船的举动是北京“恐吓其他主权声索国开发南海资源”的行动,包括其所说价值2.5万亿尚未开发的石油和天然气。
        “Vietnam should be happy” that the drills are taking place given China’s recent “aggression in its waters,” said Luc Anh Tuan, a researcher at the University of New South Wales in Australia.        澳大利亚新南威尔士大学研究员陆英俊(Luc Anh Tuan,音)说,鉴于中国近来“进犯其海域”的行为,对于军演的举行,“越南应该感到高兴”。
        “Hanoi nevertheless will manage to downplay the significance of the drill because like other ASEAN fellows, it does not want to create an impression of a coalition against China,” added Mr. Tuan, who is on educational leave from the Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security.        “不过,河内方面将设法淡化此次演习的重要性,因为和其他东盟国家一样,它不想造成联合起来对抗中国的印象,”陆英俊接着说,他正在休越南公安部的教育假。
        The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry confirmed in an email last week that the drills were happening, but declined to answer other questions.        越南外交部上周在邮件中确认了军演的消息,但拒绝回答其他问题。
        Beijing’s actions in the sea are hugely sensitive for Hanoi because it is under heavy domestic pressure to be tough on China, its largest trading partner and former colonial occupier. But Vietnam is also racing to find new energy sources to power its fast-growing economy.        北京在海上的行动对河内来说非常敏感,因为它面临着国内的巨大压力,要求它对中国这个最大的贸易伙伴和前殖民占领者采取强硬态度。而越南也在忙于寻找新能源,为快速增长的经济提供动力。
        In a sign of those tensions, there were rare anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam in 2014, after a state-owned Chinese company defiantly towed an oil rig into disputed waters near the Vietnamese coast, prompting a tense maritime standoff. Three years later, Vietnam suspended a gas-drilling project in the sea by a subsidiary of a Spanish company because the project was said to have irritated Beijing.        这种紧张关系的体现之一,是2014年越南发生了罕见的反华骚乱,当时一家中国国有企业公然将一个石油钻井平台拖入越南海岸附近有争议水域,引发了紧张的海上对峙。三年后,越南暂停了一家西班牙公司旗下企业的海上天然气钻探项目,据说是因为该项目激怒了北京。
        Yan Yan, an expert on maritime law at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, on Hainan Island off the Chinese mainland, said that this week’s drills reflected Washington’s “concern and anxiety” about waning American influence in the region. She said the drills were not a cause for concern for Beijing, which she said planned to eventually expand the “subjects and scope” of its own naval drills with ASEAN.        位于海南岛的中国南海研究院的海事法专家闫岩表示,本周的演习反映出华盛顿对美国在该地区影响力下降的“担忧和焦虑”。她说这些演习并不会引起北京的担忧,而北京的计划是逐渐扩大自己与东盟海军演习的“主题和范围”。
        “If we take a long view of these countries’ relations with the United States, we’d know that they are actually very wary of it,” Ms. Yan said.        “如果我们从长远的角度来看这些国家与美国的关系,我们就会知道,它们实际上对此非常警惕,”闫岩说。
        But ASEAN countries will be more concerned about China’s reaction to the drills than they were about the American reaction to last year’s drills with China, said Gregory B. Poling, an expert on Southeast Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He said that was especially true for countries, such as Thailand, that had no territorial disputes in the sea with China.        但东盟国家更关注中国对演习的反应,而不是美国对去年它们与中国演习的反应,华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的东南亚问题专家格雷戈里·B·波林(Gregory B. Poling)说。他说,泰国这些与中国在海上没有领土争端的国家尤其如此。
        “They don’t want to do it in a way that upsets the apple cart” of trade with China, he said of the Thai authorities. The Thai Navy declined to comment.        他在谈到泰国当局时说,“他们不想以扰乱”对华贸易“的方式来做这件事”。泰国海军拒绝置评。
        The United States Navy said in its statement that its joint naval drills with ASEAN were first proposed in 2017 and confirmed last October. That is the same month that China held its first joint naval drills with ASEAN, off its southern coast.        美国海军在声明中说,与东盟的联合海军演习最早是在2017年提出来的,于去年10月敲定。同月,中国与东盟在其南部沿海举行了首次联合海军演习。
        In a telephone interview, Kasit Piromya, a former Thai foreign minister, downplayed the risks for ASEAN of holding naval drills with the United States. “From Thailand’s point of view, it’s still an open sea,” he said, adding that any such exercises with any outside partner should be neither aggressive nor defensive.        泰国前外长甲西·披龙耶(Kasit Piromya)在接受电话采访时淡化了东盟与美国举行海军演习的风险。“从泰国的角度看,它仍然属于公海,”他说,并且与任何外部伙伴进行的此类演习都不应该具有攻击性或防御性。
        But Beijing’s territorial claims in the sea have no legal basis, he added, echoing the conclusion of an international tribunal that ruled against China three years ago. He said a key question now was whether Southeast Asian leaders could summon the “guts” to confront China’s construction of artificial islands and military bases in the sea, even though some of them have been “kowtowing to Chinese pressures and financial generosity.”        但他又表示,北京在该海域的领土主张没有法律依据,这与三年前国际法院做出的不利于中国的裁决相呼应。他说,现在的一个关键问题是,东南亚领导人是否可以鼓起“勇气”来反对中国在海上建造人工岛屿和军事基地,尽管他们中的一些人已经“屈从于中国的压力和经济上的甜头”。
        “I would urge the ASEAN leaders, the 10 of them, to get together and speak in a black-and-white manner to the Chinese leadership without being blackmailed or bought out by China’s financial offers,” he said.        他说:“我将敦促东盟10国领导人聚在一起,以毫不含糊的方式与中国领导人对话,而不是被中国给的经济好处敲诈或收买。”
                
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