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为什么中国降税不能解决汽车行业的大问题
A Chinese Auto Tax Cut Wouldn’t Solve the Car Industry’s Big Problems

来源:纽约时报    2018-10-31 10:34



        China may try to dress the wounds of global carmakers, but it will be able to provide little more than a Band-Aid.
        中国可能试图为全球汽车制造商包扎伤口,但它能提供的不过是一个创可贴。
        The country’s top economic-planning body is considering whether to cut in half the 10 percent tax that customers pay on new cars there, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing unidentified sources. That might help prop up falling demand, but the industry has bigger problems.
        彭博周一引述未具名信源报道,该国最高经济规划机构正在考虑,是否将10%的汽车购置税减半。这或许有助于支撑不断下降的市场需求,但该行业却存在着一些更大的问题。
        Sputtering sales in China are one of the reasons shares in major carmakers have taken a hit this year. The country is now the world’s largest vehicle market, so last month’s almost 12 percent drop in sales compared with September 2017 — the worst decline in seven years — was bound to worry local and foreign manufacturers alike.
        中国的汽车销量低迷,是主要车企今年股价受重创的原因之一。该国如今是世界上最大的汽车市场,因此,上个月的销量与去年9月相比下跌近12%(7年来的最大跌幅)注定会令本土及外国制造商感到担忧。
        Cutting the tax may offer a temporary fix. A similar stimulus introduced three years ago boosted annual car-sale rates in China to 25 million units in 2016, from 21 million in 2015, according to the research company Evercore ISI. The same company also estimates that this time round such a measure could boost next year’s growth rate to 5 percent, an increase of 3 percentage points. That helps explain why shares in Daimler, Ford Motor, General Motors and Volkswagen all rose by 5 percent or more after Bloomberg’s report was published.
        减税可能会提供一个临时性的解决方案。据研究公司Evercore ISI表示,三年前,政府推出的一个类似刺激性举措将中国的汽车年销量从2015年的2100万台提振至2016年的2500万台。该公司还估计,本轮举措可能将明年的增长率提至5%,增加3个百分点。这有助于解释为何在彭博的报道发表后,戴姆勒(Daimler)、福特汽车(Ford Motor)、通用汽车(General Motors)和大众(Volkswagen)股价均上涨5%或更多。
        But China’s central and regional governments have already pumped generous subsidies into the industry, hoping to create both jobs and economic development. As a result the country now has more than 80 manufacturers and 180 vehicle assemblers, according to the consultancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, many of which have produced little of consequence for years. Up to a third of China’s annual production capacity of 43 million units may have to be idled this year, PWC estimates. That points toward consolidation, but reducing taxes is likely to delay that.
        但中国的中央及地方政府已经为这个行业注入了大量补贴,希望此举既能创造工作岗位,又带动经济发展。据咨询公司普华永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)的数据,这样做的结果就是,该国如今拥有超过80家汽车制造商、180家汽车组装商,其中许多车企多年来毫无影响力。据普华永道估计,中国4300万台的整体产能中,今年可能有三分之一被闲置。这意味着行业整合,但减税很可能会将其推迟。
        And anyway, foreign automakers — even those with large businesses in China — have bigger concerns. A slowdown in the United States and Europe will hurt them more than a slump in China. And President Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent levy on European-made vehicles remains a dark cloud: BMW and Daimler would be hit hard, with 71 percent and 62 percent, respectively, of their U.S. sales produced in European factories, according to UBS.
        无论如何,外国汽车制造商——即便是那些在中国有大笔业务的车企——有着更大的担忧。美国及欧洲的经济放缓对他们造成的伤害,要比中国市场的销量下跌大得多。特朗普总统威胁对欧洲产的汽车征收25%关税,这仍是他们头顶上笼罩着的一道乌云:据瑞银(UBS)的数据,宝马(BMW)和戴姆勒将遭受重创,两家公司在美国销售的汽车当中,产于欧洲工厂的分别占71%和62%。
        A tax break in China may offer some relief, but it’s no cure.
        中国的减税优惠可能会提供一些缓解作用,但不治本。
        
        
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